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Grain Comments: 07.20.23

consolidation gave us a mixed, choppy overnight session with corn, soybeans, and wheat all trading from 1 to 2 cents higher to 1 to 2 cents lower. The US dollar was steady, energies were higher, and equities were mixed.


Today’s Reports: Export Sales, Jobless Claims


  • China soy auction attracts few buyers
  • Market rally stalls export interest
  • US basis values under pressure


Escalating fighting between Russia and Ukraine has been a major source of support for the market this week. This strength started when the Black Sea corridor agreement expired but has intensified since. Russia has launched several attacks on Ukraine ports and infrastructure which is not only damaging grain storage facilities but the stored grain as well. Some shippers had indicated they would still send vessels into the region, but this elevated fighting along with a lack of insurance coverage have prevented any movement. A concern now is that Ukraine will retaliate and strike Russian ports, further crippling exports from the region. Russia has indicated it would be willing to resolve this fighting if all of its demands were met, mainly on banking sanctions. Weather has also been supportive as forecasts are turning warmer and drier to start August. Several regions of the US have picked up rains though and this should be reflected in the weekly drought maps. Trade will again be heavily vested in today’s export data to see if the rumors of recent Chinese buying can be confirmed. Trade is hanging on Chinese demand to boost the slow US sales pace, but given the record exports out of Brazil with most destined to China, any buying in the spot market seems unlikely.



* US biofuel blending mandates heavily debated

* Weekly ethanol production +266,000 bbl

* Weekly ethanol stocks +508,000 bbl

* UN to help Ukraine find alternative export routes

* Russia continues to attack Ukraine infrastructure

* Attacks have damaged stored grain

* Insurers not covering vessels into Black Sea

* More talk of Us selling grain to be processed

* US heat impacting consumer spending

* US topsoil moisture has improved



* US exports currently 14% of world trade

* Brazil is 32% of world trade

* Global corn values soften

* Some analysts again talking trend yields

* Larger acres tempering yield concerns



* US crush margin +40c/bu this week

* August crush margin currently $1.87/bu

* Soy oil demand supporting complex

* US crop still open to stress

* Most crop concern in MN and IN

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