Grain Comments: 07-30-2026

Good morning.

Ag markets are mostly higher this morning coming out of the overnight session, with the wheat market leading the recovery charge on news of fresh Ukrainian strikes on Russian port logistics and as tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer. Inversely, world energy markets are also taking a bit of a breather after the run-up yesterday, but overall, it’s the same mix of weather and geopolitics that have driven prices all week that likely stay at the forefront today and into the weekend. Yesterday, the focus was on Midwest weather; today, at least early on, it seems that focus has shifted back towards geopolitics.

Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading near unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 18-20 cents higher.

Weekly export sales data for the week ending July 23rd will be out at the regular 7:30 am central time this morning. We do not have actual trade estimates from any of our sources but would assume guess ranges to be similar to those seen last week amid a similar set of daily sales to China and ongoing new crop price competitiveness.

Canada’s Trade Minister said on Wednesday that talks with USTR Jamieson Greer this week were comprehensive and that both sides had agreed to remain in contact and further discussions. Other details were largely lacking, but the comments would seem to indicate some sort of progress amid what has been a mostly bilateral conversation regarding the broader USMCA agreement between the US and Mexico.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in what was largely an expected move, with Chairman Kevin Warsh saying after the decision that rate increases remain possible into the end of the year should inflation stay elevated. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace and that job growth and unemployment have both remained stable. The next FOMC meeting is set for September 15-16, where the CME’s FedWatch tool is currently showing a more than 60% chance that rates are increased.

This morning’s EU model run has rains of a half inch to three inches falling Friday into Sunday, with the heaviest totals seen today in a strip from northeast SD through parts of MN/IA and then over into southern WI/northern IL and parts of western IN. We’ve talked all week about how exact locations and amounts are going to be difficult to forecast, but confidence is growing in regard to the overall pattern and how the cut-off low that’s providing this moisture is likely to progress.

Models into next week then see high pressure continuing to linger across the southern/southwestern parts of the US, which will do two things: one, it will allow monsoonal rains to continue to be pulled up from the south on the ridges western side; and two, it will allow ridge-riding storm systems to continue to work over the top of the ridge and come crashing into the central parts of the US. Exactly how much of the Corn Belt these storms are able to impact is going to be the big question now for the next couple weeks, along with whether or not more cut-off lows become common in the east as the result of more pronounced troughing returning to the northeast and the Hudson Bay region.

Have a great day.