Good morning.
Follow-through selling in the corn market has produced another round of new contract lows overnight for both the old and the new crop years, while the soy complex has spent the evening and early morning hours trading mostly higher. Another week of crop condition readings has passed with little in the way of issues, and this remains the primary limiting factor for upside price action in the short term. The question on everyone’s mind is just how long does the US crop size remain front-of-mind, and what is the next fundamental story that comes after that to potentially give the markets direction. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 40-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed corn conditions in the G/EX category as of Sunday at 73%, which was equal to last week. At the state level, PA continues to stay volatile, dropping 12% this week, while TX was down 9% and NC was down 8%; across the Midwest, OH was down 3%, while IL and IA were down 2%. MI saw the biggest increase on the week, jumping 7%, while TN was up 4% and CO was up 3%.
On the progress side, 6% of the crop was seen dented as of Sunday, which compares to 6% both last year and on average; silking reached 88%, while 42% of the crop is now seen in the dough stage.
Soybean conditions came in at 69% in the G/EX category, down 1% from last week. At the state level, NC was down 9%, WI was down 3%, and AR, IL, IA, KY, MS, and MO all saw 2% declines. MI was also the big winner here this week, jumping 6%, while KS, LA, and TN were all up 4% on the week. Progress-wise here, 85% of the crop is now seen blooming, while 58% of the crop is seen setting pods.
For wheat this week, spring wheat conditions fell 1% in the G/EX category to 48%, while harvest advanced just 4% to 5% complete. Winter wheat harvest, meanwhile, advanced 6% to 86% complete, which is just 1% behind the pace seen last year.
Private US ag brokerage group StoneX on Monday said they see the US corn crop at 16.323 mil bu’s with an avg yield of 188.1 bu/acre. Same group said they saw the US soybean crop this year at 4.425 bil bu with an average yield of 53.6 bu/acre. Both figures are above the current USDA estimates, which will be updated again on August 12th.
The weekly crop update from Brazil’s CONAB, released last night, showed safrinha corn harvest in the country at 75.2% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 91.3% complete through one more day last year and the five-year average for this week of 77.6% complete. AgRural, meanwhile, estimated harvest in the center-south of the country at 81% complete as of July 31st.
A notice posted by US Customs and Border Protection on Monday said that new reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump last week would not apply to any products loaded onto a vessel for transport into the US before 12:01am eastern time on Thursday. The notice includes exemptions for some products covered under the USMCA trade agreement and also mentions the 40% tariff rate on transshipped goods that the President had previously threatened.
The Indian government, in response to threats of increased tariffs by President Trump over India’s continued purchase and re-sale of Russian oil, said the move was “unjustified and unreasonable,” adding that both the US and the EU have still been engaging in trade with Russia. The statement also made mention of a perceived build in US-Pakistani relations, which India expressed frustration over.
Following what is being described as a “crisis meeting” between US and Swiss officials on Monday, Reuters is reporting this morning that the European nation is now ready to “make a more attractive offer” in talks with President Trump in an effort to avoid the 39% tariffs currently being threatened. Officials further said they would pursue a deal beyond Thursday’s implementation deadline, if necessary, but it is unclear this morning exactly what the odds of that being necessary are.
Weather forecasts this morning are similar to yesterday’s runs but have moved some of the heavier precipitation totals in the northwestern Corn Belt further to the north into ND and Canada. The EU’s forecast this morning has also narrowed the area expected to see heavy precipitation in the southeast this week to be more focused generally on NC, while lesser totals are now seen through GA and SC. That said, the Midwest precipitation forecast is largely unchanged, with mostly dry conditions still expected through the week.
Also not a lot new on the temperature outlook this morning, as models have remained in good agreement on the mild air seen the end of last week and early this week being mostly out of the Midwest by Thursday this week, allowing daytime highs to return to above average levels for most of the Midwest. There is still no extreme heat being forecast into next week, which will continue being monitored.
On the extended front, the biggest forecast feature into the back half of next week is the presence of two storm systems in the Atlantic that could possibly become tropical storms or hurricanes. How these systems develop will have a noted impact on the model runs for next week, which is part of the reason why our confidence has again dropped off in these forecasts. The GFS 10–15-day temperature outlook also removed a little more of the cool air pocket seen yesterday this morning, which will also need monitoring into next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-05-2025
Good morning.
Follow-through selling in the corn market has produced another round of new contract lows overnight for both the old and the new crop years, while the soy complex has spent the evening and early morning hours trading mostly higher. Another week of crop condition readings has passed with little in the way of issues, and this remains the primary limiting factor for upside price action in the short term. The question on everyone’s mind is just how long does the US crop size remain front-of-mind, and what is the next fundamental story that comes after that to potentially give the markets direction. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 40-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 50 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress update showed corn conditions in the G/EX category as of Sunday at 73%, which was equal to last week. At the state level, PA continues to stay volatile, dropping 12% this week, while TX was down 9% and NC was down 8%; across the Midwest, OH was down 3%, while IL and IA were down 2%. MI saw the biggest increase on the week, jumping 7%, while TN was up 4% and CO was up 3%.
On the progress side, 6% of the crop was seen dented as of Sunday, which compares to 6% both last year and on average; silking reached 88%, while 42% of the crop is now seen in the dough stage.
Soybean conditions came in at 69% in the G/EX category, down 1% from last week. At the state level, NC was down 9%, WI was down 3%, and AR, IL, IA, KY, MS, and MO all saw 2% declines. MI was also the big winner here this week, jumping 6%, while KS, LA, and TN were all up 4% on the week. Progress-wise here, 85% of the crop is now seen blooming, while 58% of the crop is seen setting pods.
For wheat this week, spring wheat conditions fell 1% in the G/EX category to 48%, while harvest advanced just 4% to 5% complete. Winter wheat harvest, meanwhile, advanced 6% to 86% complete, which is just 1% behind the pace seen last year.
Private US ag brokerage group StoneX on Monday said they see the US corn crop at 16.323 mil bu’s with an avg yield of 188.1 bu/acre. Same group said they saw the US soybean crop this year at 4.425 bil bu with an average yield of 53.6 bu/acre. Both figures are above the current USDA estimates, which will be updated again on August 12th.
The weekly crop update from Brazil’s CONAB, released last night, showed safrinha corn harvest in the country at 75.2% complete as of Saturday, which compares to 91.3% complete through one more day last year and the five-year average for this week of 77.6% complete. AgRural, meanwhile, estimated harvest in the center-south of the country at 81% complete as of July 31st.
A notice posted by US Customs and Border Protection on Monday said that new reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump last week would not apply to any products loaded onto a vessel for transport into the US before 12:01am eastern time on Thursday. The notice includes exemptions for some products covered under the USMCA trade agreement and also mentions the 40% tariff rate on transshipped goods that the President had previously threatened.
The Indian government, in response to threats of increased tariffs by President Trump over India’s continued purchase and re-sale of Russian oil, said the move was “unjustified and unreasonable,” adding that both the US and the EU have still been engaging in trade with Russia. The statement also made mention of a perceived build in US-Pakistani relations, which India expressed frustration over.
Following what is being described as a “crisis meeting” between US and Swiss officials on Monday, Reuters is reporting this morning that the European nation is now ready to “make a more attractive offer” in talks with President Trump in an effort to avoid the 39% tariffs currently being threatened. Officials further said they would pursue a deal beyond Thursday’s implementation deadline, if necessary, but it is unclear this morning exactly what the odds of that being necessary are.
Weather forecasts this morning are similar to yesterday’s runs but have moved some of the heavier precipitation totals in the northwestern Corn Belt further to the north into ND and Canada. The EU’s forecast this morning has also narrowed the area expected to see heavy precipitation in the southeast this week to be more focused generally on NC, while lesser totals are now seen through GA and SC. That said, the Midwest precipitation forecast is largely unchanged, with mostly dry conditions still expected through the week.
Also not a lot new on the temperature outlook this morning, as models have remained in good agreement on the mild air seen the end of last week and early this week being mostly out of the Midwest by Thursday this week, allowing daytime highs to return to above average levels for most of the Midwest. There is still no extreme heat being forecast into next week, which will continue being monitored.
On the extended front, the biggest forecast feature into the back half of next week is the presence of two storm systems in the Atlantic that could possibly become tropical storms or hurricanes. How these systems develop will have a noted impact on the model runs for next week, which is part of the reason why our confidence has again dropped off in these forecasts. The GFS 10–15-day temperature outlook also removed a little more of the cool air pocket seen yesterday this morning, which will also need monitoring into next week.
Have a great day.
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