Good morning.
Markets are seeing a continuation of Tuesday’s action in the overnight trade so far to start Wednesday, as corn and soybeans are lower while the wheat market is higher. As was also the case yesterday, traders will be awaiting 8am central time this morning to see if the rumored Chinese soybean purchases from the past couple days show up on the daily reporting system. Soybean futures need Chinese buying to upend the downward price trend that has been in place all summer. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $4-5/ton, and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are trading $1.60-1.70/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 350 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is up 60 points, and the NASDAQ is up 250 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 2nd is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.008-1.109 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 23.992-24.800 mil bbls.
Chinese customs data showed soybean imports for July reached 9.85 mmt’s, which was up 2.9% from July last year, but below expectations of 12-13 mmt’s. Cumulative imports for the calendar year are now seen at 58.33 mmt’s, down 1.3% from last year.
Soy crush workers in Argentina again went on strike Wednesday according to a joint statement signed by two of the main unions. The strike comes following a failed attempt on Monday to agree to new compensation packages with crushers/trading houses.
Meanwhile, a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange showed Argentine soybean imports reached a record high for the season, totaling roughly 2.2 mmt’s. More than 95% of this business has been done with Paraguay according to the report. The surge in imports is the result of poor harvests in the 2022/23 season.
According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports in the season beginning July 1 totaled 2.18 mmt’s through August 4th, down nearly 40% from the same period last year. The commission notes that export data for France is incomplete from the beginning 2024.
Japan’s central bank Deputy Governor, in comments to the public, said they would not hike interest rates when markets are unstable, a dovish rhetoric that raised sentiment almost immediately and weakened the yen nearly 2% against the US $.
The Japanese comments allowed US stock index futures to continue yesterday’s rebound, with Wednesday’s data slate again expected to be light.
24-hour satellite data showed another day of mostly dry conditions across the Midwest on Tuesday. The Dakota’s/Wyoming/Montana picked up anywhere from trace amounts to 1″ of rainfall, while 1-2″ were seen for areas of IN/MI/OH and up into the New England area. The southeast also saw continued rainfall of 1-7″ from the remnants of Debby.
Temps begin dropping to more seasonal levels for most of the Corn Belt beginning today, with this cooler air expected to hang around through the first part of next week. 2-week outlooks again see most of the Midwest returning to a warmer bias into the end of August, which will need monitoring.
Models continue to fluctuate on rainfall amounts, but the GFS and EU are in better agreement this morning than yesterday for the rest of the week; the EU still sees more rains in the northern Plains through Friday, but both are on the same page for rains over the US East Coast and Ontario, while the rest of the Midwest is seen dry.
Week-two precipitation forecasts did not see a lot of change overnight, with models continuing to show a wetter bias in a ‘check-mark’ like shape through the Midwest, as northwest flow coming over the high pressure ridge anchored in the US southwest continues to provide thunderstorm potential.
Newswires this morning are reporting concern in Brazil over potential frost events in the next 10 days, as temps in the southern part of the country are seen falling much below normal by the middle of next week. Otherwise, the global forecast did not see a lot of adjustments overnight.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-07-2024
Good morning.
Markets are seeing a continuation of Tuesday’s action in the overnight trade so far to start Wednesday, as corn and soybeans are lower while the wheat market is higher. As was also the case yesterday, traders will be awaiting 8am central time this morning to see if the rumored Chinese soybean purchases from the past couple days show up on the daily reporting system. Soybean futures need Chinese buying to upend the downward price trend that has been in place all summer. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 9-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $4-5/ton, and soybean oil is up 60-70 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are trading $1.60-1.70/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 350 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points. The S&P500 is up 60 points, and the NASDAQ is up 250 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 2nd is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.008-1.109 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 23.992-24.800 mil bbls.
Chinese customs data showed soybean imports for July reached 9.85 mmt’s, which was up 2.9% from July last year, but below expectations of 12-13 mmt’s. Cumulative imports for the calendar year are now seen at 58.33 mmt’s, down 1.3% from last year.
Soy crush workers in Argentina again went on strike Wednesday according to a joint statement signed by two of the main unions. The strike comes following a failed attempt on Monday to agree to new compensation packages with crushers/trading houses.
Meanwhile, a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange showed Argentine soybean imports reached a record high for the season, totaling roughly 2.2 mmt’s. More than 95% of this business has been done with Paraguay according to the report. The surge in imports is the result of poor harvests in the 2022/23 season.
According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports in the season beginning July 1 totaled 2.18 mmt’s through August 4th, down nearly 40% from the same period last year. The commission notes that export data for France is incomplete from the beginning 2024.
Japan’s central bank Deputy Governor, in comments to the public, said they would not hike interest rates when markets are unstable, a dovish rhetoric that raised sentiment almost immediately and weakened the yen nearly 2% against the US $.
The Japanese comments allowed US stock index futures to continue yesterday’s rebound, with Wednesday’s data slate again expected to be light.
24-hour satellite data showed another day of mostly dry conditions across the Midwest on Tuesday. The Dakota’s/Wyoming/Montana picked up anywhere from trace amounts to 1″ of rainfall, while 1-2″ were seen for areas of IN/MI/OH and up into the New England area. The southeast also saw continued rainfall of 1-7″ from the remnants of Debby.
Temps begin dropping to more seasonal levels for most of the Corn Belt beginning today, with this cooler air expected to hang around through the first part of next week. 2-week outlooks again see most of the Midwest returning to a warmer bias into the end of August, which will need monitoring.
Models continue to fluctuate on rainfall amounts, but the GFS and EU are in better agreement this morning than yesterday for the rest of the week; the EU still sees more rains in the northern Plains through Friday, but both are on the same page for rains over the US East Coast and Ontario, while the rest of the Midwest is seen dry.
Week-two precipitation forecasts did not see a lot of change overnight, with models continuing to show a wetter bias in a ‘check-mark’ like shape through the Midwest, as northwest flow coming over the high pressure ridge anchored in the US southwest continues to provide thunderstorm potential.
Newswires this morning are reporting concern in Brazil over potential frost events in the next 10 days, as temps in the southern part of the country are seen falling much below normal by the middle of next week. Otherwise, the global forecast did not see a lot of adjustments overnight.
Have a great day.
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