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Grain Comments: 08.08.23

Improved crop ratings and a lack of bullish news weighed on overnight trade with corn 3-4 cents lower, soybeans down 12-14 cents, and wheat down 6-8 cents. The US dollar was higher while energies and equities were lower.

 

Today’s Reports: Trade Balance, Chinese Export Data

 

  • US yield potential bumped higher
  • Demand expected to be cut in Friday’s WASDE
  • China July soybean imports +23.5% from June

 

The condition of the US corn and soybean crops improved last week which was not a surprise given recent weather conditions. As of Sunday evening the US corn crop was rated 57% Good/Excellent, a weekly improvement of 2%. The Poor/Very Poor rating on corn slipped 1 point to 14% leaving a large portion of the crop rated fair or better. The US corn crop is also 8% dented which is equal to the five-year average. The US soybean crop is now rated 54% G/E, up 2% from the previous week. The P/VP rating on soybeans also decreased by 1 point to 14%. Pods have set on 66% of the soybean crop which is 3% ahead of average. Given recent weather and current outlooks these ratings will likely improve again next week. These figures also have more analysts raising their yield estimates, putting them closer to USDA projections. The US spring wheat rating declined 1 point on the week and now stands at 41% G/E. Spring wheat harvest is 11% complete compared to the normal 14% on this date. Winter wheat harvest is 87% complete which is 1% less than average. Now that this data is out of the way trade will focus its attention on positioning for Friday’s WASDE data.

 

Highlights

* Low waters continue to impact US movement

* Parts of rivers closed for dredging

* US labor market remains strong

* Strong labor market adds to inflation

* Ukraine targeting Russian Black Sea infrastructure

* Russia uses BS for 70% of exports

* Argentina still drier than normal

* US gasoline costs highest of 2023

* Russia to offer cheaper grain to “friendly” countries

* US farmland values +7.4% in 2022

 

Corn

* 2022/23 US export est 25-50 mbu too high

* 2023/24 US exports 100-150 mbu too high

* New crop sales remain 34% behind last year

* Argentina to start planting end of the month

* Argentina expected to be world 3rd largest exporter

 

Soybeans

* US old crop exports +3% from USDA forecast

* 2023/24 export sales -47% from last year

* US has 40 mbu unshipped 22/23 sales to China

* Last year China had 150 mbu unshipped sales

* Malaysia palm oil stocks 5-month high

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