Good morning.
Green ink across the ag space to start the last trading day of the week, with the wheat market being the upside leader. As has been the case the past couple sessions, Friday’s trade likely features position squaring as traders prepare for Monday’s August WASDE data. Big picture, the largest market influences on the ag space in the short term should continue to be weather/yield prospects and managed money positioning. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are up 4-5 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are around 30 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points.
For Monday’s August WASDE report, the trade sees old crop corn and soybean ending stocks coming in nearly unchanged from the July estimates, while new crop corn ending stocks are also seen near unchanged, and new crop soybean ending stocks are seen increasing roughly 30 mil bu.
World ending stocks for new crop corn are seen down slightly from last month, while world soybean ending stocks are estimated to be near unchanged.
On the production side, the average trade guess on corn yield is 182.1, which would be up from the USDA’s July estimate of 181.0. Trade sees soybean yield at 52.5, compared to the July figure of 52.0.
Corn harvested acres are estimated just a shade below 83 million, while harvested acres for soybeans are seen at 85.1 million. Using the above yield estimates, this would equate to a 15.112 bil bu corn crop, and a 4.469 bil bu soybean crop.
The weekly crop report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange did not have much to offer this week, as wheat planting has wrapped up and corn harvest is nearly complete. The report showed corn harvest advanced 4.3% in the last week to 96.3% complete, while production was unchanged at 46.5 mmt’s.
Staying in Argentina, the labor strike by oilseed workers has extended into a third day, as negotiations on wages have stalled. Sources say the strike has affected as many as 36 vessels waiting to load grains.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR on Friday raised their estimate of the Russian grain harvest to 129.5 mmt’s, compared to their previous estimate of 128.0 mmt’s. Exports were also seen 2.2% higher than before at 56.2 mmt’s.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 3rd were down 5.6% from last week at 622k tons. Corn shipments were down 13% at 359k tons, and soybean shipments were up 11.6% at 222k tons.
Financial markets look to end the week on a somewhat quiet note, as expected data on Friday is minimal. Though the odds of a September rate cut have significantly increased, a Bloomberg survey shows a majority of economists see just a 0.25 basis point cut, compared to the 0.5 basis points that have been in the headlines this week.
In US politics, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the two presidential nominees for their respective parties, will debate each other on September 10th on ABC. This will be the first face-to-face debate between the two.
Will keep weather comments short this morning, as there were not many updates in the overnight model runs. Both the GFS and EU trended wetter in KS/OK and the Plains over the weekend, with rainfall of up to 3″ forecast. Otherwise, most of the Midwest stays dry into Monday morning.
Week two forecasts continue to fluctuate on both temp and precipitation due to the tropical storm system developing in the Atlantic. Today, models see a drier bias for the south and southeast, while the northeast and northwest see above average precipitation chances.
Week-two temp forecasts continue to see a warmer bias for most of the midsection of the country, but the models are trying to pull in cooler air on both the east coast and the west coast. As has been said all week, confidence beyond 4-5 days is low and this will need monitoring.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-09-2024
Good morning.
Green ink across the ag space to start the last trading day of the week, with the wheat market being the upside leader. As has been the case the past couple sessions, Friday’s trade likely features position squaring as traders prepare for Monday’s August WASDE data. Big picture, the largest market influences on the ag space in the short term should continue to be weather/yield prospects and managed money positioning. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are up 4-5 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 8-9 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are around 30 cents/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is down 10 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points.
For Monday’s August WASDE report, the trade sees old crop corn and soybean ending stocks coming in nearly unchanged from the July estimates, while new crop corn ending stocks are also seen near unchanged, and new crop soybean ending stocks are seen increasing roughly 30 mil bu.
World ending stocks for new crop corn are seen down slightly from last month, while world soybean ending stocks are estimated to be near unchanged.
On the production side, the average trade guess on corn yield is 182.1, which would be up from the USDA’s July estimate of 181.0. Trade sees soybean yield at 52.5, compared to the July figure of 52.0.
Corn harvested acres are estimated just a shade below 83 million, while harvested acres for soybeans are seen at 85.1 million. Using the above yield estimates, this would equate to a 15.112 bil bu corn crop, and a 4.469 bil bu soybean crop.
The weekly crop report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange did not have much to offer this week, as wheat planting has wrapped up and corn harvest is nearly complete. The report showed corn harvest advanced 4.3% in the last week to 96.3% complete, while production was unchanged at 46.5 mmt’s.
Staying in Argentina, the labor strike by oilseed workers has extended into a third day, as negotiations on wages have stalled. Sources say the strike has affected as many as 36 vessels waiting to load grains.
Russian ag consultancy IKAR on Friday raised their estimate of the Russian grain harvest to 129.5 mmt’s, compared to their previous estimate of 128.0 mmt’s. Exports were also seen 2.2% higher than before at 56.2 mmt’s.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 3rd were down 5.6% from last week at 622k tons. Corn shipments were down 13% at 359k tons, and soybean shipments were up 11.6% at 222k tons.
Financial markets look to end the week on a somewhat quiet note, as expected data on Friday is minimal. Though the odds of a September rate cut have significantly increased, a Bloomberg survey shows a majority of economists see just a 0.25 basis point cut, compared to the 0.5 basis points that have been in the headlines this week.
In US politics, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the two presidential nominees for their respective parties, will debate each other on September 10th on ABC. This will be the first face-to-face debate between the two.
Will keep weather comments short this morning, as there were not many updates in the overnight model runs. Both the GFS and EU trended wetter in KS/OK and the Plains over the weekend, with rainfall of up to 3″ forecast. Otherwise, most of the Midwest stays dry into Monday morning.
Week two forecasts continue to fluctuate on both temp and precipitation due to the tropical storm system developing in the Atlantic. Today, models see a drier bias for the south and southeast, while the northeast and northwest see above average precipitation chances.
Week-two temp forecasts continue to see a warmer bias for most of the midsection of the country, but the models are trying to pull in cooler air on both the east coast and the west coast. As has been said all week, confidence beyond 4-5 days is low and this will need monitoring.
Have a great day.
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