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Grain Comments: 08.10.23

Light short covering supported overnight trade with corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans up 10-12 cents, and wheat 3-5 higher. The US dollar and energies were weaker while the equities were higher.

 

Today’s Reports: Export Sales, CONAB, CPI Data

 

  • NASS to adjust wheat acres tomorrow if needed
  • Corn, soy acres to be evaluated in September
  • Chinese economy in deflationary territory

 

The majority of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s updated WASDE data. Ever since the release of the July supply and demand data trade has been expecting to see a reduction to yield in the August balance sheets. These thoughts were generated from improved weather conditions and how this impacted crop development. Over the past two weeks weather has turned more favorable and several analysts have raised their production estimates as a result. This is especially the case on soybeans where August weather is more of a factor in development and yield potential. Corn yield estimates have also started to rebound. In July the USDA estimated the average corn yield at 177.5 bushels per acre. Several others claim yield would be closer to 175 bushel an acre, with a few thinking it would be as low as 170 bushels. The reversal in weather patterns now has these guesses increasing with some actually topping the USDA. On soybeans most analysts are still in the 50 to 52 bushel an acre range, but even a 2 bushel loss in yield will be big for the complex.

 

Highlights

* More insurers cut Black Sea coverage

* Remaining insurers are very costly

* No weather threats on US crop

* Brazil farmers holding inventory

* US farmers expected to store new crop

* Weekly ethanol production -308,000 barrels

* Weekly ethanol stocks +20,000 barrels

* Global fertilizer values firming

* Ukraine July exports -31% after corridor closure

* August WASDE tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT

 

 

Corn

* US exports 84% of yearly forecast

* US exports -3% from average

* Loadings need to average 70 mbu/week

* Argentine corn sales up 4 mmt from incentive program

* Ethanol demand remains above needed volume

 

Soybeans

* US exports 94% of USDA forecast

* US exports +3% from average

* Weekly exports need to average 31 mbu

* Argentine soy incentive planned for Sep

* Global oilseed supply rising

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