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Grain Comments: 08.14.23

Soybean futures are firm this morning while corn and Chicago wheat are down slightly. The US dollar is steady, energies are slightly higher, and equities are slightly higher.


Today’s Reports: Export Inspections, Crop Progress


  • US corn and soybean yields cut in Friday’s WASDE report
  • US soybean ending stocks tight
  • Weather has been favorable for production thus far in August.


USDA cut the yield outlook for both corn and soybeans on Friday, in-line with analyst estimates. For corn, the yield cut was accompanied by cuts in domestic demand and exports. The net result was a small decline of 60 mil bu in ending stocks. Ending stocks for corn still sit above 2 bil bu at 2.202 bil bu, which place the stocks-to-use ratio at 15.3%. Stocks for corn remain a heavy weight on the market. For soybeans, the yield cut resulted in a tight balance sheet. Yields were cut to 50.9 bu/acre, down from 52 bu/acre. A small cut of 25 mil bu to exports was a revision on the demand side of the ledger, leaving ending stocks at a tight 245 mil bu. The ending stocks number for soybeans is supportive prices, although mostly priced in at this point. There seems to be some potential yields could see a slight increase moving forward after the nice growing conditions in the beginning of August.




* Vessel line up in Brazil growing

* US seeing high soy product demand

* Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian who wants to axe the central bank and dollarize the economy, unexpectedly won a primary election in Argentina

* Yen trending sharply weaker against US dollar prompting likely intervention in Japan

* US 2-Year and 10-Year Treasury yields steady after rising sharply last week

* US fall offers competitive with SAM

* Importers report adequate fall coverage

* US vegetative levels record high



* US yield at 175.1 bpa, -2.4 bu from July

* US crop est 15.111 bbu, -209 mbu

* 22/23 carryout 1.457 bbu, +55 mbu

* 23/24 carryout est 2.202 bbu, -6mbu

* 23/24 world carryout 311.05 mmt



* US yield 50.9 bpa, -1.1 bu from July

* US crop 4.205 bbu, -95 mbu

* 22/23 ending stocks 260 mbu, +8 mbu

* 23/24 carryover 245 mbu, -55 mbu

* 23/24 world ending stocks 119.4 mmt

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