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Grain Comments: 08.17.23

Technical positioning has generated mixed overnight trade with corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat down 4-6 cents. The US dollar is steady while energies and equities are firmer.

 

Today’s Reports: Export Sales, Jobless Claims

 

  • Markets see technical pressure
  • Global inflation impacting commodity demand
  • US corn yield reports “better than expected”

 

We are starting to see a shift in the global commodity market from being one that favored sellers to one that favors buyers, or what is referred to as a “buyer’s market.” This is more of a case on corn and soybeans where global inventories are rising and expected to be even larger in the 2023/24 marketing year. This build in inventory allows buyers to be choosier in when and where they source needs from and favors the hand to mouth import buying we have seen in recent weeks. The basis weakness we have seen in the global markets is offering additional benefits to import buyers as well as interior processors in many countries. This shift in attitude is making it more difficult to pin down export demand. When we add in the volatility that currency valuations are generating it makes predicting global trade even more difficult. There are several other factors that are impacting export trade as well, with shipping costs and geopolitical differences being primary ones. When it comes to global trade and demand the US market is trying to determine how much business we will see. The window for US export sales has narrowed considerably in recent years and shows no signs of reversing.

 

Highlights

* Ukraine grain production est 50-55 mmt

* Last year Ukraine produced 53 mmt

* 2021 Ukraine grain production was 86 mmt

* China reporting high unemployment

* Consumer spending not building in China

* US 401k withdrawals record high

* Economists less confident on Sep rate hike

* Odds increasing for Nov rate hike

* US oil rig count down 15 in past month

* US rig count lowest in 17 months

 

Corn

* Brazil Safrinha crop +11% from last year

* Global feed wheat supply rising

* Most feed wheat is in Black Sea

* Census exports +200 mbu from USDA

* World demand growth equals rise in production

 

Soybeans

* EU imports year to year -270,000 mt

* Brazil farmer sales remain low

* China remains top buyer of US offers

* Non-Chinese trade -50% from last year

* US cash market inventory is tight

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