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Grain Comments: 08.22.23

Position balancing gave us mixed overnight trade with corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 3-4 cents lower, and wheat up 3-5 cents. The US dollar and equities were firm while the energies were mixed.

 

Today’s Reports: PF Crop Tour, Existing Home Sales

 

  • PF Ohio yield est 183.9 bpa, +9.8 last year
  • PF So Dak corn yield est 157.4 bpa, +39 last year
  • PF pod counts mostly higher than last year

 

The rating of the US crops was mixed from last week to this week. As of Sunday, the US corn crop was rated 58% Good/Excellent, down 1% from the previous week. The Poor/Very Poor rating remains low at 15% of the crop. The US corn crop is now 4% mature which is equal to the five-year average. The soybean crop rating held steady on the week with 59% G/E and 13% P/VP. Pods have set on 86% of the soybean crop which is 2% above average. The spring wheat rating dropped 4 points on the week and now stands at 38% G/E. Harvest of the spring wheat crop is up to 39% which trails the average rate by 7%. Given current weather conditions and seasonal tendencies ratings will likely decline again next week. While this data will receive attention today, more interest this week will fall on field collected data from the Pro Farmer crop tour. The 1st day of the tour worked through fringe areas of the Corn Belt, and it is no surprise that high variability is being seen in fields. Early tour results indicate high soybean pods counts in both the east and west sides of the tour. Corn yield potential appears to be better than last year, but again, high variability is very common.

 

Highlights

* US farmer focus on upcoming harvest

* Country movement is slowing

* Interior basis showing strength

* Only forward contracted bushels being moved

* Water levels on US rivers remains low

* Low water also impacting Panama Canal

* Delays of 3 weeks seen in Panama Canal

* Record Brazil sugar crop to compete with corn ethanol

* Brazil 23/24 ethanol production est to increase 9%

* Brazil/China 2023 trade est $35.8 billion, +8.2% from 2022

 

Corn

* US competitive with SAM

* China has record Brazil bookings

* Yearly China-Brazil trade est 13-15 mmt

* US 23/24 Chinese trade est 8-10 mmt

* Argentine expected to increase plantings 3-4%

 

Soybeans

* Brazil farm gate sales increasing

* Brazil delays favor US exports

* US forward sales lowest since 2019

* Global veg oil market firming

* Weather is main source of support

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