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Grain Comments: 08.25.23

Overnight trade mixed with corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 2-3 higher. The US dollar remains on an upward trend and is higher this morning, and energies are firm. Equities higher this morning, looking to gain back some of the losses from yesterday afternoon’s sell-off.

 

Today’s Reports: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 9:05

 

  • PF MN corn yield 181.34 bpa, 190.39 last year
  • PF E. IA corn yield 182.8 bpa, 183.81 last year
  • PF pod counts remain high

 

The worst of the hot weather in the Midwest should be behind us by tomorrow. The question remains how much damage to the crop this week’s weather has inflicted. Soybeans have been supported this week and are moving into price levels from the beginning of August. The Pro Farmer crop tour results have been variable, but overall point to a crop that likely will be near USDA’s current outlook. However, it is hard to deny the heat – especially the overnight temperatures – and the continued lack of rain is having some effect. The rain forecast does not appear to improve until at least into the first week of September for much of the Midwest. Crop ratings on Monday are expected to show a decline in good/excellent ratings. With how variable the ratings have been this year do not be surprised if they move more than a point or two. On the macro front, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he speaks today in Jackson Hole. The market is looking for direction on interest rate policy after their most recent meeting minutes struck a hawkish cord.

 

Highlights

* Stats Canada to update production Aug 29th

* Smaller Canadian crops expected

* Dollar Index moving closer to highs from late May

* Recent consumer company earnings have disappointed leading to questions of US consumer health

* Loading delays continue to Brazil ports

* Panama Canal wait times remain at 20+ days

* Low water starting to impact US export outlook

* September options expire today

 

Corn

* Pro Farmer to release US yield findings today

* Corn futures not following soybeans higher

* Updated crop ratings released Monday

* Producers have little new crop sold

* High variability seen in US crop

 

Soybeans

* US crush holding above $2.50/bu

* Updated crop rating released Monday

* Soybean futures firm on weather concerns

* Worst of the Midwest heat to subside this weekend

* US carry-out remains small

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