Good morning.
Choppy trade at the CBOT continues as markets are again mixed in the overnight session. We continue to feel trade will be range-bound in the short term, with managed money still heavily short both corn and soybeans. It takes a new development fundamentally to get these traders out of their positions; but as short as they are, any bullish news story has the risk of getting exaggerated due to them quickly covering. Market risks lean to the upside with prices near multi-year lows, the previously mentioned managed money situation, and a myriad of ongoing geopolitical tensions around the globe outweighing the heavy US supply situation that has been talked about and traded for months. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up around 10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around $1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is unchanged, and the US$ index is up 45 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are also both near unchanged.
Today’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 23rd is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.085-1.091 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 23.374-23.557 mil bbls. Both figures look to be slightly below last week’s numbers.
StatsCanada will release their first production estimates for the coming season this morning; the trade sees them estimating total wheat production at 33.8 mmt’s, up from 32 mmt’s in the previous season.
Same group sees canola production in the coming season at 19.1 mmt’s compared to 18.3 last year, and soybean production is seen at 7.1 mmt’s, compared with 7.0 last year.
According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, palm oil exports out of the country in June reached 3.385 mil tons, compared to 1.964 mil in May. Production for the month was seen at 4.045 mil tons, compared to 4.253 mil last month.
India’s ag ministry says rice planted area in the current season is up more than 4% from the year prior at 39.43 mil hectares. Monsoon rains have been roughly 7% more than normal this year, allowing farmers to plant more hectares.
Russia’s Ag ministry announced on Wednesday it had raised the export duty on wheat by 9.7% to 908.5 rubles/ton, and that this would be valid until September 3rd. The duty on barely remained zero and the duty on corn fell from 1,033.6 rubles/ton to 701.4 rubles/ton.
Focus on the equity world Wednesday will be on Nvidia’s earnings report, which is due out after the markets close this afternoon. Analysts estimate the chipmaker will project revenue growth of more than 70% for the quarter, while the options market is implying a +/- 10% swing in either direction following the results.
Satellite data shows rains made their way east in the last 24 hours, with parts of MO/IA/IL/IN/WI/MI all receiving anywhere from 0.1-1.5″, with locally heavier amounts in northern MO/southern IA.
For the rest of the week, models agree on additional thunderstorm activity, but the EU is wetter further to the north in MN and into Canada, while the GFS is a little wetter across IA/IL/IN and the central Corn Belt.
Otherwise, not a lot of changes overnight to the overall pattern. Cool air moves into the northwest starting today via a low-pressure trough, and that trough looks to progress eastward across the country through the end of this week and into the weekend.
Highs in the eastern Corn Belt stay above 90 degrees F through Friday but look to drop back into the 80’s by the weekend, and then into the 70’s again by the middle of next week.
Week-two forecasts expanded the area of expected dryness in the northern part of the country to include most of the Corn Belt, while also showing slightly higher chances of above average temps in the west, while the east stays mostly average.
It is worth noting as we get into September that at some point in the coming days/weeks, a dry forecast will be a positive as it allows for rapid harvest progress. At least for another week or two though, finishing rains will still be needed throughout the Corn Belt.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-28-2024
Good morning.
Choppy trade at the CBOT continues as markets are again mixed in the overnight session. We continue to feel trade will be range-bound in the short term, with managed money still heavily short both corn and soybeans. It takes a new development fundamentally to get these traders out of their positions; but as short as they are, any bullish news story has the risk of getting exaggerated due to them quickly covering. Market risks lean to the upside with prices near multi-year lows, the previously mentioned managed money situation, and a myriad of ongoing geopolitical tensions around the globe outweighing the heavy US supply situation that has been talked about and traded for months. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up around 10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down around $1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is unchanged, and the US$ index is up 45 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are also both near unchanged.
Today’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 23rd is expected to show daily production in a range of 1.085-1.091 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 23.374-23.557 mil bbls. Both figures look to be slightly below last week’s numbers.
StatsCanada will release their first production estimates for the coming season this morning; the trade sees them estimating total wheat production at 33.8 mmt’s, up from 32 mmt’s in the previous season.
Same group sees canola production in the coming season at 19.1 mmt’s compared to 18.3 last year, and soybean production is seen at 7.1 mmt’s, compared with 7.0 last year.
According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, palm oil exports out of the country in June reached 3.385 mil tons, compared to 1.964 mil in May. Production for the month was seen at 4.045 mil tons, compared to 4.253 mil last month.
India’s ag ministry says rice planted area in the current season is up more than 4% from the year prior at 39.43 mil hectares. Monsoon rains have been roughly 7% more than normal this year, allowing farmers to plant more hectares.
Russia’s Ag ministry announced on Wednesday it had raised the export duty on wheat by 9.7% to 908.5 rubles/ton, and that this would be valid until September 3rd. The duty on barely remained zero and the duty on corn fell from 1,033.6 rubles/ton to 701.4 rubles/ton.
Focus on the equity world Wednesday will be on Nvidia’s earnings report, which is due out after the markets close this afternoon. Analysts estimate the chipmaker will project revenue growth of more than 70% for the quarter, while the options market is implying a +/- 10% swing in either direction following the results.
Satellite data shows rains made their way east in the last 24 hours, with parts of MO/IA/IL/IN/WI/MI all receiving anywhere from 0.1-1.5″, with locally heavier amounts in northern MO/southern IA.
For the rest of the week, models agree on additional thunderstorm activity, but the EU is wetter further to the north in MN and into Canada, while the GFS is a little wetter across IA/IL/IN and the central Corn Belt.
Otherwise, not a lot of changes overnight to the overall pattern. Cool air moves into the northwest starting today via a low-pressure trough, and that trough looks to progress eastward across the country through the end of this week and into the weekend.
Highs in the eastern Corn Belt stay above 90 degrees F through Friday but look to drop back into the 80’s by the weekend, and then into the 70’s again by the middle of next week.
Week-two forecasts expanded the area of expected dryness in the northern part of the country to include most of the Corn Belt, while also showing slightly higher chances of above average temps in the west, while the east stays mostly average.
It is worth noting as we get into September that at some point in the coming days/weeks, a dry forecast will be a positive as it allows for rapid harvest progress. At least for another week or two though, finishing rains will still be needed throughout the Corn Belt.
Have a great day.
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