Good morning.
Chicago ag markets are mostly lower to begin wrapping up the month of August this morning, with wheat futures leading the charge to the downside on what is likely some sort of month-end profit taking and as charts across the space have become overbought in recent weeks. It’s a new week, but trade inputs in general into the month of September look to remain largely the same as they’ve been for days now: US crop production prospects and the arrival of harvest remain talking point A, while talking point B has been a revolving door of geopolitical happenings in the Black Sea and in the Middle East, as well as the looming China meeting in another few short weeks in D.C. Market fundamentals still lean bullish in our opinion, but some sort of correction is likely to happen sooner or later amid the sharp run-up seen since mid-August, whether today ends up being the start of it or not.
Corn futures to get Monday morning rolling are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-13 cents lower.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, with data for the week ending Tuesday, August 25th, showed managed money traders in the week were large buyers of 126,008 contracts of corn (+376,513), buyers of 46,592 contracts of soybeans (+198,254), and buyers of 12,314 contracts of Chicago wheat (-14,171); in the soy products, funds were buyers of 14,013 contracts of meal (+97,036) and sellers of 9,795 contracts of oil (+88,442).
Of note on the CFTC report, this was the largest week of fund buying in corn since early March and this is also the largest net-long position the funds have held in corn since April of 2022; the all-time record fund long position in corn is 429,189 contracts, made in September of 2010.
Preliminary estimates of Russia’s September wheat export figure from several private groups in the region have shipments at just 1.8-2.3 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down some 50-60% from the same month last year. August exports prior to today totaled right around 2 million tons, which is down some 56% from last year.
South American consultancy firm Safras & Mercado last week said that they now see Brazil corn production in the coming 2026/27 season at 145.6 MMTs, up around 0.4% from a previous estimate and also up from production in 2025/26 at 139.3 MMTs. Second crop harvest in the northern part of the country is said to be just under 90% complete as of last week.
French farm ministry officials told reporters last week that the French government this week would be rolling out a support package worth several hundred million euros in an effort to compensate farmers whose crops have been hit by record heat and drought this summer. Details are expected to be announced by the French Ag Minister later this week.
President Trump on Friday, via a post to Truth Social, said he was preparing a legal order that would allow farmers and ranchers in the US the right to process their own food in response to ongoing allegations that meatpackers, of which there are essentially only four in the US, have monopolized the market and are controlling prices. Trump said the matter should move quickly, but no other timeline was given in the post.
Separately, Trump also posted Sunday evening that the US has been losing more than 60 billion dollars a year with Canada and that “long ago stolen” businesses were now lining up to come back to America to avoid paying tariffs in what appears to be another sign that trade negotiations between the two sides could be going better.
Weekend weather featured some light/generally scattered rainfall across the northern part of the Midwest ag belt, but things were generally quiet elsewhere as high pressure slowly worked north and east. This allowed temperatures to slowly climb back to above normal levels, where they’re now expected to stay for the week and into the weekend, and also limited moisture to areas generally north of I-80.
Forecast-wise, the pattern for this week looks to be similar to the one described above, as the presence of ridging across the central US gives a mid-summer-like feel to a lot of the Corn Belt again. Rainfall will be mostly a product of ridge-riding storms, with the models in fair agreement this morning (the EU is still marginally wetter) on totals of 1-2″ falling from the Dakotas to MI and then also further east over the next five days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 08-31-2026
Good morning.
Chicago ag markets are mostly lower to begin wrapping up the month of August this morning, with wheat futures leading the charge to the downside on what is likely some sort of month-end profit taking and as charts across the space have become overbought in recent weeks. It’s a new week, but trade inputs in general into the month of September look to remain largely the same as they’ve been for days now: US crop production prospects and the arrival of harvest remain talking point A, while talking point B has been a revolving door of geopolitical happenings in the Black Sea and in the Middle East, as well as the looming China meeting in another few short weeks in D.C. Market fundamentals still lean bullish in our opinion, but some sort of correction is likely to happen sooner or later amid the sharp run-up seen since mid-August, whether today ends up being the start of it or not.
Corn futures to get Monday morning rolling are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-13 cents lower.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, with data for the week ending Tuesday, August 25th, showed managed money traders in the week were large buyers of 126,008 contracts of corn (+376,513), buyers of 46,592 contracts of soybeans (+198,254), and buyers of 12,314 contracts of Chicago wheat (-14,171); in the soy products, funds were buyers of 14,013 contracts of meal (+97,036) and sellers of 9,795 contracts of oil (+88,442).
Of note on the CFTC report, this was the largest week of fund buying in corn since early March and this is also the largest net-long position the funds have held in corn since April of 2022; the all-time record fund long position in corn is 429,189 contracts, made in September of 2010.
Preliminary estimates of Russia’s September wheat export figure from several private groups in the region have shipments at just 1.8-2.3 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down some 50-60% from the same month last year. August exports prior to today totaled right around 2 million tons, which is down some 56% from last year.
South American consultancy firm Safras & Mercado last week said that they now see Brazil corn production in the coming 2026/27 season at 145.6 MMTs, up around 0.4% from a previous estimate and also up from production in 2025/26 at 139.3 MMTs. Second crop harvest in the northern part of the country is said to be just under 90% complete as of last week.
French farm ministry officials told reporters last week that the French government this week would be rolling out a support package worth several hundred million euros in an effort to compensate farmers whose crops have been hit by record heat and drought this summer. Details are expected to be announced by the French Ag Minister later this week.
President Trump on Friday, via a post to Truth Social, said he was preparing a legal order that would allow farmers and ranchers in the US the right to process their own food in response to ongoing allegations that meatpackers, of which there are essentially only four in the US, have monopolized the market and are controlling prices. Trump said the matter should move quickly, but no other timeline was given in the post.
Separately, Trump also posted Sunday evening that the US has been losing more than 60 billion dollars a year with Canada and that “long ago stolen” businesses were now lining up to come back to America to avoid paying tariffs in what appears to be another sign that trade negotiations between the two sides could be going better.
Weekend weather featured some light/generally scattered rainfall across the northern part of the Midwest ag belt, but things were generally quiet elsewhere as high pressure slowly worked north and east. This allowed temperatures to slowly climb back to above normal levels, where they’re now expected to stay for the week and into the weekend, and also limited moisture to areas generally north of I-80.
Forecast-wise, the pattern for this week looks to be similar to the one described above, as the presence of ridging across the central US gives a mid-summer-like feel to a lot of the Corn Belt again. Rainfall will be mostly a product of ridge-riding storms, with the models in fair agreement this morning (the EU is still marginally wetter) on totals of 1-2″ falling from the Dakotas to MI and then also further east over the next five days.
Have a great day.
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