Grain Comments: 09.02.25

Good morning. Ag markets are mostly lower to start the Labor Day shortened four-day trading week this week, with soybeans and wheat the early downside leaders on lower world wheat trade from Monday and an ongoing lack of news out of trade meetings with China over the weekend. Outside market trade is also likely having an impact on the ag space to start Tuesday, as sharply higher trade in the dollar index is presumably adding to the overnight selling pressure, while corn futures would likely be trading even lower yet were it not for crude oil being up almost $2/bbl. Otherwise, aside from a decent-sized pile of USDA data due today, we’re another week close to the full onset of US harvest and this likely continues to dominate trader sentiment in the short term. The corn market to start Tuesday is trading 1-2 cents lower, soybeans are trading 8-11 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-9 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $3-4/ton and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are also mixed early, crude oil futures are up $1.70-1.80/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 260 points and the US$ index is up 60-70 points; the S&P500 is down 40 points and the NASDAQ is down 230 points. Gold futures made new contract highs overnight.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; USDA Monthly Fats and Oils; USDA Monthly Grain Crushings; Weekly Crop Progress

• Tuesday’s delivery slate from the CME Group includes 12 contracts of soybean meal, 403 contracts of soybean oil, 64 contracts of rough rice, 262 contracts of KC wheat, 172 contracts of oats, and 3 contracts of soybeans.

• USDA will release monthly soybean crush and corn grind data for July later this afternoon. Traders see the Fats and Oils report showing the US soybean crush in the month at 207.2 million bushels, which would be up 5% from June and up 7% from July of last year. Of note, NOPA estimated US July soybean crush earlier this month at 195.7 million bu. Traders also see the report showing soybean oil stocks as of July 31st at 1.903 bil lbs, which would be up 0.5% from June and down 5% from July of last year. We do not have trade estimates for the grain crushings report.

• Last week’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report with data for the week ending August 26th showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of another 33,964 contracts of corn (now net-short 110,686), buyers of 20,815 contracts of soybeans (net-long 20,818), and buyers of 16,544 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 81,587). In the products, funds were buyers of 23,528 contracts of meal (net-short 61,711) and sellers of 673 contracts of oil (net-long 30,669).

• Australia’s Department of Agriculture, in a quarterly update released Tuesday, said they see the country’s total 2025 grain production reaching 62 MMTs, which would be up 12% from their June estimate and up more than 25% from the 10-year average. The group also pegged Australian wheat production at 33.8 MMTs, which is up 10% from June and would be the fourth biggest crop for the country ever.

• Argentina’s CIARA-CEC grain exporters and processors’ chamber said on Monday that the country’s ag exports fell roughly 25% in the month of August from the same month last year, while total revenue for the sector was down 55% from July at just $1.82 bil USD. Meanwhile and along similar lines, data from a farm lobby in Ukraine shows August ag exports out of that country at roughly 4 MMTs, which is up nearly 16% from the month prior.

• Japan’s top trade negotiator said on Tuesday, in response to a local news article, that the trade agreement made with the US in July did not include lowering tariffs on ag products, and that Japan would handle US demands for increased purchases of US rice within the confines of its existing cap on duty-free imports. The deal was supposed to be finalized last week, but that trip to the US was canceled at the last minute.

• According to the USDA, federally inspected beef production in the week ending August 30th totaled 488 mil lbs, which was up nearly 3% from last week, while pork production totaled 500 mil lbs, down 1% on the week. So far for 2025, YTD beef production is down 4% from last year and pork production is down 2.3%.

• President Trump posted to Truth Social on Monday that India had offered to cut their tariffs on US goods to zero, but added that “it’s getting late,” and that the move should’ve been made years ago. It is unclear this morning whether any sort of breakthrough has actually been scored in the talks, while their has also been no comment from the Indian side either confirming or denying such a move.

• Satellite data shows rains returned to the western Midwest over the weekend, with totals from KS to SD ranging from a half inch to 3″ generally speaking, with the heaviest totals being seen near the border of NE/IA/MO. The eastern Midwest, meanwhile, remained dry, with no notable precip seen east of central IA/MO.