Good morning.
Overnight ag trade to start wrapping up the week has been two-sided but is quietly near unchanged at this writing this morning, as traders prepare for a long, three-day holiday break after the roller coaster ride that has been the last couple weeks. With as much speculative money as has come into the space of late, we wouldn’t be surprised at all to see profit taking and position squaring be the main theme for Friday barring new headlines out of either the Black Sea or the Middle East. Harvest is just slowly starting to get rolling, but we’re not sure enough activity goes on the next few days to materially change opinions on that front by the first part of next week. We’ve said it for days, but headline risk isn’t going anywhere.
Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also.
As a reminder, there will be no CBOT ag trade Sunday night or Monday during the day for the Labor Day holiday; trade will resume like normal at 7pm central time Monday evening. Have a great long weekend!
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina this week showed 94% of the wheat crop remained in good or excellent condition despite heat returning to the north and little rain present throughout most of the growing regions. For corn, old crop harvest is still just 92.5% complete, while new crop planting in the first update of the year is 1.5% complete; this is slightly ahead of last year but similar and near the recent average.
Private Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans said September wheat shipments were preliminarily forecast between 1.6-2.0 million tons, which would be down slightly from the group’s August estimate at 2.1 million tons. The group added that the bulk of the August shipments were moved by rail.
In an interview with Fox News this week, USTR Jamieson Greer said that the US and China would likely make announcements at their upcoming summit on ag and non-tariff barriers. Greer said in the interview, “We’re not looking for a giant, comprehensive trade agreement with China. We’re looking to manage this relationship. When President Xi comes, we expect that we will probably have some more announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers related to agriculture to incentivize American sales into China.”
Canadian National Railway said on Thursday that it set a new monthly record for western Canadian grain shipments during the month of August, transporting 2.5 MMTs during the month. The previous record, set in August of 2020, was seen at 2.34 MMTs. Of note, rival CPKC earlier in the day also reported record shipments during the month.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 29th at 540k tons, which was up 14% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were up 5% at 322k tons and soybean shipments were up 22% at 196k tons. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $27.25/short ton, which was up $4.11 from the week prior.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up across the northern part of the Midwest today and into tonight, but the overall outlook is little changed as high pressure throughout the central part of the country continues to push the bulk of the rainfall north of the main growing areas. On the temperature side, heat subsides just moderately for a couple days into next week, but is seen returning by mid-week, with daytime highs expected to be similar to what they were this week.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 09-04-2026
Good morning.
Overnight ag trade to start wrapping up the week has been two-sided but is quietly near unchanged at this writing this morning, as traders prepare for a long, three-day holiday break after the roller coaster ride that has been the last couple weeks. With as much speculative money as has come into the space of late, we wouldn’t be surprised at all to see profit taking and position squaring be the main theme for Friday barring new headlines out of either the Black Sea or the Middle East. Harvest is just slowly starting to get rolling, but we’re not sure enough activity goes on the next few days to materially change opinions on that front by the first part of next week. We’ve said it for days, but headline risk isn’t going anywhere.
Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny lower also.
As a reminder, there will be no CBOT ag trade Sunday night or Monday during the day for the Labor Day holiday; trade will resume like normal at 7pm central time Monday evening. Have a great long weekend!
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina this week showed 94% of the wheat crop remained in good or excellent condition despite heat returning to the north and little rain present throughout most of the growing regions. For corn, old crop harvest is still just 92.5% complete, while new crop planting in the first update of the year is 1.5% complete; this is slightly ahead of last year but similar and near the recent average.
Private Russian rail operator Rusagrotrans said September wheat shipments were preliminarily forecast between 1.6-2.0 million tons, which would be down slightly from the group’s August estimate at 2.1 million tons. The group added that the bulk of the August shipments were moved by rail.
In an interview with Fox News this week, USTR Jamieson Greer said that the US and China would likely make announcements at their upcoming summit on ag and non-tariff barriers. Greer said in the interview, “We’re not looking for a giant, comprehensive trade agreement with China. We’re looking to manage this relationship. When President Xi comes, we expect that we will probably have some more announcements on agriculture and non-tariff barriers related to agriculture to incentivize American sales into China.”
Canadian National Railway said on Thursday that it set a new monthly record for western Canadian grain shipments during the month of August, transporting 2.5 MMTs during the month. The previous record, set in August of 2020, was seen at 2.34 MMTs. Of note, rival CPKC earlier in the day also reported record shipments during the month.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending August 29th at 540k tons, which was up 14% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week were up 5% at 322k tons and soybean shipments were up 22% at 196k tons. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $27.25/short ton, which was up $4.11 from the week prior.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up across the northern part of the Midwest today and into tonight, but the overall outlook is little changed as high pressure throughout the central part of the country continues to push the bulk of the rainfall north of the main growing areas. On the temperature side, heat subsides just moderately for a couple days into next week, but is seen returning by mid-week, with daytime highs expected to be similar to what they were this week.
Have a great day!
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