Good morning.
After two days of higher trade in the ag markets this week, selling has returned to the space to start Thursday, as all three of corn, soybeans and wheat are lower. Stale shorts have likely been removed in recent days, with more two-sided trade likely to evolve in the weeks/months ahead. We continue to reiterate that the US supply situation will not be at the forefront of the market forever; it is a futures market for a reason, and the market will move on from the supply news quicker than the producer/elevator/commercial will. Be prepared for a more volatile trading environment than what was seen through most of summer. Corn futures this morning are down 2-3 cents, soybean futures are down 9-10 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 6-7 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $7-8/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around 45 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 30th, delayed a day for the Labor Day holiday, is expected to show daily ethanol production in a range of 1.030-1.076 mil bbls, while stocks are seen between 23.000-23.672 mil bbls. Both figures, on average, would be smaller than last week’s readings.
Private ag company StoneX on Wednesday released their survey-based yield estimates for September; the group estimated avg corn yield at 182.9 bu/acre, up from last month’s 182.3, with production seen at 15.127 bil bu’s (15.207 bil last month).
Same group estimated US national avg soybean yield at 53.0 bu/acre, compared to 52.6 last month; production was estimated at 4.575 bil bu’s, compared to 4.483 bil last month.
Private Brazilian ag consultancy AgRural estimates soybean planted area in Brazil to increase by the lowest rate in nearly 20 years in the coming season, but still sees the number being up roughly 0.9% from last year. The group estimates soy planted area at 46.4 mil hectares, or some 114.7 mil acres.
Chinese soybean crush margins have improved in recent weeks to levels not seen since the beginning of summer, after being in the negative for most of June and July. The timing is potentially good for the US farmer, as harvest is about to start, and this could potentially spur additional Chinese demand.
According to the US Coast Guard, low water levels on the lower Mississippi River have caused several barges to run aground in recent days near the Greenville-Vicksburg sections of the river. Barge rates out of St. Louis, MO in late August have risen to nearly 65% above the recent three-year average.
Officials from Nvidia said on Wednesday that the chipmaker had not, in-fact, been subpoenaed by the US Dept of Justice as part of an antitrust probe. Sources familiar with the matter said the D.O.J had sent a request for information over Nvidia’s acquisition of RunAI, but that no official subpoena had been issued.
Otherwise, attention in the equity markets the rest of the week will be on Friday morning’s non-farm payrolls report and unemployment data. The reports likely determine general price direction in the days ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting.
Overnight weather changes were again minimal; models continue to be in good agreement on continued dry conditions across the Corn Belt into next week, with rains showing up in the west by next weekend. Temps will continue to be below average through this weekend, before warmer air is seen returning for most of the Midwest by the middle of next week.
The national hurricane center currently sees five potential tropical storms in the Atlantic/Gulf, which will act to keep the forecast active in the south and southeastern parts of the US. A boost in moisture in the Mississippi Delta area is more than welcomed.
Week-two forecasts continue to favor a drier bias for all but the southeast and the northwest, which paired with average to above average temps, looks to accelerate early harvest efforts in the weeks ahead.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-05-2024
Good morning.
After two days of higher trade in the ag markets this week, selling has returned to the space to start Thursday, as all three of corn, soybeans and wheat are lower. Stale shorts have likely been removed in recent days, with more two-sided trade likely to evolve in the weeks/months ahead. We continue to reiterate that the US supply situation will not be at the forefront of the market forever; it is a futures market for a reason, and the market will move on from the supply news quicker than the producer/elevator/commercial will. Be prepared for a more volatile trading environment than what was seen through most of summer. Corn futures this morning are down 2-3 cents, soybean futures are down 9-10 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 6-7 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $7-8/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around 45 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points. The S&P500 is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report for the week ending August 30th, delayed a day for the Labor Day holiday, is expected to show daily ethanol production in a range of 1.030-1.076 mil bbls, while stocks are seen between 23.000-23.672 mil bbls. Both figures, on average, would be smaller than last week’s readings.
Private ag company StoneX on Wednesday released their survey-based yield estimates for September; the group estimated avg corn yield at 182.9 bu/acre, up from last month’s 182.3, with production seen at 15.127 bil bu’s (15.207 bil last month).
Same group estimated US national avg soybean yield at 53.0 bu/acre, compared to 52.6 last month; production was estimated at 4.575 bil bu’s, compared to 4.483 bil last month.
Private Brazilian ag consultancy AgRural estimates soybean planted area in Brazil to increase by the lowest rate in nearly 20 years in the coming season, but still sees the number being up roughly 0.9% from last year. The group estimates soy planted area at 46.4 mil hectares, or some 114.7 mil acres.
Chinese soybean crush margins have improved in recent weeks to levels not seen since the beginning of summer, after being in the negative for most of June and July. The timing is potentially good for the US farmer, as harvest is about to start, and this could potentially spur additional Chinese demand.
According to the US Coast Guard, low water levels on the lower Mississippi River have caused several barges to run aground in recent days near the Greenville-Vicksburg sections of the river. Barge rates out of St. Louis, MO in late August have risen to nearly 65% above the recent three-year average.
Officials from Nvidia said on Wednesday that the chipmaker had not, in-fact, been subpoenaed by the US Dept of Justice as part of an antitrust probe. Sources familiar with the matter said the D.O.J had sent a request for information over Nvidia’s acquisition of RunAI, but that no official subpoena had been issued.
Otherwise, attention in the equity markets the rest of the week will be on Friday morning’s non-farm payrolls report and unemployment data. The reports likely determine general price direction in the days ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting.
Overnight weather changes were again minimal; models continue to be in good agreement on continued dry conditions across the Corn Belt into next week, with rains showing up in the west by next weekend. Temps will continue to be below average through this weekend, before warmer air is seen returning for most of the Midwest by the middle of next week.
The national hurricane center currently sees five potential tropical storms in the Atlantic/Gulf, which will act to keep the forecast active in the south and southeastern parts of the US. A boost in moisture in the Mississippi Delta area is more than welcomed.
Week-two forecasts continue to favor a drier bias for all but the southeast and the northwest, which paired with average to above average temps, looks to accelerate early harvest efforts in the weeks ahead.
Have a great day.
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