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Grain Comments: 09.05.23

Futures are mixed to start the week with corn steady, soybeans 4-6 cents lower and wheat 4-6 cents higher. The US dollar is higher, energies are mixed, and wheat is lower.

 

 

Today’s Reports: Crop Progress, Export Inspections

 

  • Crop ratings expected to decline 2-3%
  • More vessels leave Ukraine ports
  • Crude oil at 9-month high

 

 

Traders started to position themselves for the new month last Friday, but more of this is expected today. Traders tend to be hesitant to establish new positions ahead of a weekend, especially a long holiday one. Much of today’s session will be spent determining what we may see for weekly crop ratings. Condition declined in last week’s report, but losses were much less than expected. Crops have not received much precipitation since then, but we did see temperatures briefly moderate. At this time of the year we do tend to see crop ratings decline as maturity takes place. This makes it difficult to determine if lower numbers are from crop stress or they are simply shutting down for the year. Crop ratings tend to lose their impact on market direction in September as more interest is on actual harvest results. We have already received data from the fringe areas, and these appear to be better than expected and well above normal. The question now is if these higher yields will make up for any losses in other regions. Cash markets have started to soften in several areas of the Corn Belt as buyers await new crop deliveries. We are still seeing some quick ship incentives on old crop though, but these are becoming fewer and fewer.

 

Highlights

* Ethanol production margins level out

* SAM bird flu restrictions lifting

* Argentina to resume poultry shipments to EU

* US existing home sales -14% on the year

* US to help Ukraine rebuild ports

* Inflation not slowing as fast as hoped

* Fed likely to hold interest rates steady

* Water levels continue to drop on US rivers

* Substantial rain will be needed to correct levels

* Global consumer spending is declining

 

Corn

* July corn for ethanol use was 454 mbu

* Technicians predict corn bottom in early Sep

* Early US yield remain high

* Global feed demand is rising

* Feeders shifting away from feed wheat

 

Soybeans

* July soybean crush was 185 mbu

* July oil production was 2.18 billion pounds

* Product importers turn to US

* Ukraine to push oilseed exports

* Planting now underway in Brazil

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