Grain Comments: 09-14-26

Good morning. Ag trade at the CBOT has been mixed/quiet throughout much of the overnight session so far to get Monday started, with grain markets trading inside of Friday’s ranges to this point while the soybeans have just barely pushed below last week’s lows on what has been a relatively low-volume start to the week. Price action today, at least early on, is likely to be somewhat related to last week’s numbers, but as there weren’t any major surprises of note, focus likely turns back to the ongoing situation in the Black Sea as well as harvest updates out of the Midwest, which look to become more abundant in the days/weeks ahead. It’s combine yield data and a resolution to supply disruptions out of Russia and Ukraine that traders desire most today, while the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for the 24th in Washington D.C. would seem to be the next potential market-mover on the calendar.

Corn futures to start the week are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress

• According to the CME Group, there were 35 contracts of Sep corn assigned for delivery for Monday, along with 8 contracts of rough rice, 2 contracts of soybean oil, and 1 contract each of beans, meal, oats, and Chicago wheat.

• Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending September 8th were sellers of 5,892 contracts of corn (+425,171), buyers of 24,848 contracts of soybeans (+266,031) and were sellers of 10,391 contracts of Chicago wheat (+4,262); in the soy products, funds bought 817 contracts of meal (+159,558) and sold 8,144 contracts of oil (+101,768). This is a new record long fund position for both beans and meal.

• China’s ag ministry said in a monthly update that 2025/26 soybean imports (the 2026/27 marketing year begins October 1) were now expected to reach 108 MMTs, which would be up just under 5 MMTs from a previous estimate due to improvements in crush margins. The ministry made no adjustment to next marketing year’s import figure, which is still seen down notably from the current season at just 95.5 MMTs.

• Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange said in a report on Friday that 1.03 MMTs of old crop soybeans had been traded in the week ending Sep 2nd, the largest weekly volume since July as farmers move to lock in sales following a price rally spurred by increased demand from China. The group also noted firmer oil prices as a result of the ongoing US-Iran war and and deteriorating US crop conditions as other reasons for the increase.

• President Trump said over the weekend that he warned Ukrainian President Zelensky to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, arguing they had shuttered diesel capacity and driven fuel prices to record levels. Zelensky’s Chief of Staff responded by saying Kyiv was preparing for trilateral talks to begin in October, though no additional details were given. Reports have attacks ongoing as of yesterday, meaning the overall situation seems to be relatively unchanged from last week.

• Data shows Ukraine grain exports in the current season that began July 1 down nearly 25% from a year ago at just 4.34 MMTs, with most of that total being exported in July before some port operations were halted. Similar data out of Russia shows seaborne grain exports in July and August down nearly 50% from last year at just 4.2 MMTs, as the war continues to have tangible impacts on grain flows out of both countries.

• Trump downplayed hostilities in the relationship with Canada over the weekend, saying in Ireland that a trade deal could come “fairly soon” despite giving little other detail. He further insisted that Canada drop ag-related tariffs and “treat our farmers better.”

• According to 72-hour satellite data, weekend precip dotted the periphery of the Corn Belt but largely avoided the heart of the region, with scattered totals ranging anywhere from a half inch to closer to two inches impacting much of the eastern part of the region and also parts of KS, NE and SD in the west. IA saw lighter rains, but a corridor from roughly MO to MI and then north through WI and southern MN largely missed out.