Good morning.
Follow-through selling has been the story so far to get mid-week trade started on Wednesday, with grain and soy markets lower across the board on a push to new lows for the move in wheat futures and as new buying has remained sidelined ahead of tomorrow’s much anticipated trade meeting. It’s harvest time – or close to it – across the Midwest, but attention in the futures markets this week has continued to largely be anywhere but in the fields amid the plethora of global geopolitical happenings that are continuing to influence price direction. Harvest delays are starting to be felt in the cash markets, but futures traders continue to be in wait-and-see mode and want to get through this week before putting on any new bets.
Corn futures this morning are trading 4-6 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 7-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-8 cents lower.
Weekly ethanol data from the EIA for the week ending September 18th is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week between 1.010-1.134 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 24.520-25.10 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be down from last week.
Advisors to Argentine President Javier Milei on Tuesday said that they currently lacked congressional votes to approve the trade deal signed in February with the US. Argy sources say the country wants better terms following a Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs earlier this year, but the US has been reluctant to renegotiate over concerns that other countries would seek similar changes.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but staying in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said this week that corn and soybean production in the coming season were both expected to be up from last year; corn production is seen at 66 MMTs, up from 64 last year, and soybean production is seen at 53.6 MMTs, up from 50.1 this year. Wheat production was estimated at 23.4 MMTs, down from 27.8 MMTs last year.
A private industry group in Australia said this week that the country’s beef sector is on track to see record production and exports in 2026, citing strong demand from both the US and China, as well as high domestic slaughter rates. Production is seen up 8% this year at a little over three million tons in carcass weight, while exports are seen increasing almost 6% to 1.6 million tons.
Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday, echoing comments from President Trump, said the administration is currently weighing whether a full or partial export ban on diesel was feasible, with a decision promised to be made “fast” amid record retail prices.
Outside of the western Corn Belt, weather continues to be largely a non-factor for the rest of the region, with forecasts into the weekend continuing to show minimal rainfall and cooler temperatures for a lot of the central and eastern areas the next several days. Models are getting wetter this morning through KS/NE and the western parts of MO and IA into next week though, with the EU solution now seeing upwards of another 3-6″ of rain the next seven days.
Of note, the models also shifted significantly wetter across the eastern part of the US at the end of next week, with widespread heavy rainfall expected to impact most all of the region next Weds/Thurs/Fri. The EU is wetter further north and east than the GFS, but both have several rather large cut-off lows working through the heart of the country in the back half of next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-23-2026
Good morning.
Follow-through selling has been the story so far to get mid-week trade started on Wednesday, with grain and soy markets lower across the board on a push to new lows for the move in wheat futures and as new buying has remained sidelined ahead of tomorrow’s much anticipated trade meeting. It’s harvest time – or close to it – across the Midwest, but attention in the futures markets this week has continued to largely be anywhere but in the fields amid the plethora of global geopolitical happenings that are continuing to influence price direction. Harvest delays are starting to be felt in the cash markets, but futures traders continue to be in wait-and-see mode and want to get through this week before putting on any new bets.
Corn futures this morning are trading 4-6 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 7-10 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-8 cents lower.
Weekly ethanol data from the EIA for the week ending September 18th is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week between 1.010-1.134 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 24.520-25.10 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be down from last week.
Advisors to Argentine President Javier Milei on Tuesday said that they currently lacked congressional votes to approve the trade deal signed in February with the US. Argy sources say the country wants better terms following a Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs earlier this year, but the US has been reluctant to renegotiate over concerns that other countries would seek similar changes.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but staying in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said this week that corn and soybean production in the coming season were both expected to be up from last year; corn production is seen at 66 MMTs, up from 64 last year, and soybean production is seen at 53.6 MMTs, up from 50.1 this year. Wheat production was estimated at 23.4 MMTs, down from 27.8 MMTs last year.
A private industry group in Australia said this week that the country’s beef sector is on track to see record production and exports in 2026, citing strong demand from both the US and China, as well as high domestic slaughter rates. Production is seen up 8% this year at a little over three million tons in carcass weight, while exports are seen increasing almost 6% to 1.6 million tons.
Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday, echoing comments from President Trump, said the administration is currently weighing whether a full or partial export ban on diesel was feasible, with a decision promised to be made “fast” amid record retail prices.
Outside of the western Corn Belt, weather continues to be largely a non-factor for the rest of the region, with forecasts into the weekend continuing to show minimal rainfall and cooler temperatures for a lot of the central and eastern areas the next several days. Models are getting wetter this morning through KS/NE and the western parts of MO and IA into next week though, with the EU solution now seeing upwards of another 3-6″ of rain the next seven days.
Of note, the models also shifted significantly wetter across the eastern part of the US at the end of next week, with widespread heavy rainfall expected to impact most all of the region next Weds/Thurs/Fri. The EU is wetter further north and east than the GFS, but both have several rather large cut-off lows working through the heart of the country in the back half of next week.
Have a great day.
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