Good morning.
Tuesday Ag trade started somewhat similarly to how trade on Monday started, with row-crop markets having been mostly higher through the overnight session while the products saw more spread activity but in the opposite direction of yesterday. News-wise, yesterday afternoon’s crop progress update showed wet weather has continued to cause harvest delays, especially in the west, but the trade expects progress to be made on those delays over the next week as the weather straightens out. Otherwise, market inputs today are largely the same as they’ve been, with geopolitics, Friday’s WASDE, and El Niño likely to again be the center of most trade chatter.
Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-7 cents higher.
At the state level, notable improvements in corn harvest over the last week were seen mostly in the east and southeast, where KY was up 11% and TN and IL were each up 10%; IN was up 8%, but OH stayed on the wetter side and was up just 3% on the week. Relative to average, IA is 13% behind and MI is 12% behind. Things were more spread out for beans, with MS harvest progress up 15% on the week, IN up 13%, ND up 12%, AR and MN up 11%, and IL up 10%. Relative to average, IA is 33% behind, MN is 26% behind, NE is 25% behind, and SD is 17% behind.
The Trump administration on Monday announced an Executive Order that, effective immediately, would allow for red-dyed diesel – a tax-exempt fuel that is typically used in tractors, construction equipment, and other off-road vehicles – to be used on highways tax free. Normal highway diesel fuel in the US is typically subject to a 24.4 cent/gallon tax, and using the farm fuel in regular passenger vehicles is illegal under normal conditions.
While exports continue to lag, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said Tuesday that the current grain harvest is about 63% complete as of today, with around 35.2 MMTs of grain brought in so far. The ministry has pegged total grain production this year at roughly 60 MMTs, which would be close to the same as was produced in 2025. Yields are said to be averaging around 4.84 tons/hectare.
Interfax reported on Tuesday, citing IKAR data, that Russian wheat shipments during the month of September totaled roughly 2.4 MMTs, which was some 20% above the latest forecast as Baltic ports handled more than a million tons, which is a new monthly record. June-Sep exports are now seen at roughly 6.4 MMTs, which would be around half the total exported during the period last year.
Brazilian soy industry group Abiove said this week that soybean crush capacity in the country has grown 13% during 2026 from the year prior to 86.4 MMTs. Data shows that crush facilities during the year increased from 131 to 148, idle facilities were halved from 12 to 6, and plants under construction fell from six to three as projects were completed. Abiove added that planned investments over the next 12 months should add about 7.4 million tons of additional crush capacity per year.
South American weather forecasts have trended wetter this week into mid-month for parts of Mato Grosso and other heavy production areas in central Brazil, but have shown excessive wet weather continuing in the southern part of the country and into Paraguay that is likely to cause ongoing delays in crop progress. Argentina, meanwhile, was drier through late summer but has seen moisture improve over the last 4-6 weeks as El Niño settles in.
Weather models trended wetter overnight for some of the southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt, as a tropical system out of the Gulf is now expected to bring rainfall to parts of IL, IN and OH and other areas east of the Mississippi River as it works north and east this weekend and into the first part of next week. Areas north and west stay dry and should continue to see good harvest windows until a larger low-pressure system from the west impacts the region again next week.
Temperature-wise, most all of the US looks to see daytime highs that are above average through the week this week and into next week, though the most extreme heat looks to stay centered on the western US and areas generally west of the Rockies before it works east this weekend and into the first part of next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-06-2026
Good morning.
Tuesday Ag trade started somewhat similarly to how trade on Monday started, with row-crop markets having been mostly higher through the overnight session while the products saw more spread activity but in the opposite direction of yesterday. News-wise, yesterday afternoon’s crop progress update showed wet weather has continued to cause harvest delays, especially in the west, but the trade expects progress to be made on those delays over the next week as the weather straightens out. Otherwise, market inputs today are largely the same as they’ve been, with geopolitics, Friday’s WASDE, and El Niño likely to again be the center of most trade chatter.
Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-7 cents higher.
At the state level, notable improvements in corn harvest over the last week were seen mostly in the east and southeast, where KY was up 11% and TN and IL were each up 10%; IN was up 8%, but OH stayed on the wetter side and was up just 3% on the week. Relative to average, IA is 13% behind and MI is 12% behind. Things were more spread out for beans, with MS harvest progress up 15% on the week, IN up 13%, ND up 12%, AR and MN up 11%, and IL up 10%. Relative to average, IA is 33% behind, MN is 26% behind, NE is 25% behind, and SD is 17% behind.
The Trump administration on Monday announced an Executive Order that, effective immediately, would allow for red-dyed diesel – a tax-exempt fuel that is typically used in tractors, construction equipment, and other off-road vehicles – to be used on highways tax free. Normal highway diesel fuel in the US is typically subject to a 24.4 cent/gallon tax, and using the farm fuel in regular passenger vehicles is illegal under normal conditions.
While exports continue to lag, Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said Tuesday that the current grain harvest is about 63% complete as of today, with around 35.2 MMTs of grain brought in so far. The ministry has pegged total grain production this year at roughly 60 MMTs, which would be close to the same as was produced in 2025. Yields are said to be averaging around 4.84 tons/hectare.
Interfax reported on Tuesday, citing IKAR data, that Russian wheat shipments during the month of September totaled roughly 2.4 MMTs, which was some 20% above the latest forecast as Baltic ports handled more than a million tons, which is a new monthly record. June-Sep exports are now seen at roughly 6.4 MMTs, which would be around half the total exported during the period last year.
Brazilian soy industry group Abiove said this week that soybean crush capacity in the country has grown 13% during 2026 from the year prior to 86.4 MMTs. Data shows that crush facilities during the year increased from 131 to 148, idle facilities were halved from 12 to 6, and plants under construction fell from six to three as projects were completed. Abiove added that planned investments over the next 12 months should add about 7.4 million tons of additional crush capacity per year.
South American weather forecasts have trended wetter this week into mid-month for parts of Mato Grosso and other heavy production areas in central Brazil, but have shown excessive wet weather continuing in the southern part of the country and into Paraguay that is likely to cause ongoing delays in crop progress. Argentina, meanwhile, was drier through late summer but has seen moisture improve over the last 4-6 weeks as El Niño settles in.
Weather models trended wetter overnight for some of the southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt, as a tropical system out of the Gulf is now expected to bring rainfall to parts of IL, IN and OH and other areas east of the Mississippi River as it works north and east this weekend and into the first part of next week. Areas north and west stay dry and should continue to see good harvest windows until a larger low-pressure system from the west impacts the region again next week.
Temperature-wise, most all of the US looks to see daytime highs that are above average through the week this week and into next week, though the most extreme heat looks to stay centered on the western US and areas generally west of the Rockies before it works east this weekend and into the first part of next week.
Have a great day.
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