Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT are attempting what can best be described as a dead-cat-bounce to start mid-week trading this morning. Corn futures are continuing to tread water above the $4 mark, and soybean futures look to again revisit the $10 level on Wednesday; until more is known regarding South American crops and unless the US export situation rapidly gains steam, these two even price levels will likely be gravitational points for the markets over the short/medium term. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up around 20 points. Outside markets are mixed/quiet, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is also unchanged and the NSADAQ is up 25 points. Also of note, the SX/SF bean spread has narrowed in to -10 1/2 overnight, its highest level since June.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, delayed a day for the Columbus day holiday, showed corn harvest at 47% complete compared to 30% last week, while soybean harvest was seen at 67% complete compared to 47% last week; both remain ahead of the five-year averages.
At the state level, biggest increases in progress from last week on corn harvest came in MN (+28%), IA (+23%), SD (+18%) and NE (+18%). ND continues to be the furthest state behind, with just 19% of the corn crop harvested compared to the average of 22%.
For soybeans, biggest increases in harvest progress were seen in OH (+27%), MI (+26%), and SD (+26%). LA remains the only soybean producing state that is tracked in the weekly updates that is not ahead of five-year average pace, while North Carolina is the furthest behind from a percentage complete standpoint at just 20%.
Corn conditions in the g/ex category were unchanged on the week at 64%; there were no condition ratings this week for soybeans. Corn maturity reached 94% compared to the five-year average of 89%, while the amount of soybeans dropping leaves reached 95% compared to the five-year average of 92%.
For wheat, winter wheat planting reached 64% complete, up from 51% last week and compared to the five-year average of 66%. Emergence was seen at 35%, compared to 25% last week and the five-year average of 38%.
Russia’s union of grain exporters on Tuesday set its “consensus indicator” for wheat export prices at $240/ton in October, $245 in November, and $250 in December; this is the first time the group has made a public notification of such indicators.
Satellite data shows light rains fell in parts of the eastern Corn Belt and further into the northeast on Tuesday, though coverage was spotty and totals were generally less than a half inch.
Otherwise, there was again a lack of notable shifts in the US forecast overnight. Models are in good agreement on rainfall beginning the end of this week for the Southwest/Central Plains, with parts of NM, TX, OK, KS, and CO expected to receive anywhere from 0.5-3″, with some locally heavier amounts by the first part of next week.
Week-two forecasts continue to fluctuate, with the EU and GFS ensemble models in fair agreement on a wetter bias for the far northeast into Canada, but no more than average precipitation chances elsewhere.
Rainfall in South America on Tuesday was similar to what was seen on Monday; central/northern Brazil saw continued good rains, while northeast Argentina into southern Brazil also saw good moisture. The rest of Argentina was mostly dry.
Forecast changes here for the rest of the week were also minimal, as more of the same is expected in terms of precipitation for the rest of this week. Models see improved rainfall chances returning to Argentina by the end of this week and into next week, while regular early season showers are expected to remain in Brazil.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-16-2024
Good morning.
Markets at the CBOT are attempting what can best be described as a dead-cat-bounce to start mid-week trading this morning. Corn futures are continuing to tread water above the $4 mark, and soybean futures look to again revisit the $10 level on Wednesday; until more is known regarding South American crops and unless the US export situation rapidly gains steam, these two even price levels will likely be gravitational points for the markets over the short/medium term. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up around 20 points. Outside markets are mixed/quiet, crude oil futures are down 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is unchanged. The S&P500 is also unchanged and the NSADAQ is up 25 points. Also of note, the SX/SF bean spread has narrowed in to -10 1/2 overnight, its highest level since June.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report, delayed a day for the Columbus day holiday, showed corn harvest at 47% complete compared to 30% last week, while soybean harvest was seen at 67% complete compared to 47% last week; both remain ahead of the five-year averages.
At the state level, biggest increases in progress from last week on corn harvest came in MN (+28%), IA (+23%), SD (+18%) and NE (+18%). ND continues to be the furthest state behind, with just 19% of the corn crop harvested compared to the average of 22%.
For soybeans, biggest increases in harvest progress were seen in OH (+27%), MI (+26%), and SD (+26%). LA remains the only soybean producing state that is tracked in the weekly updates that is not ahead of five-year average pace, while North Carolina is the furthest behind from a percentage complete standpoint at just 20%.
Corn conditions in the g/ex category were unchanged on the week at 64%; there were no condition ratings this week for soybeans. Corn maturity reached 94% compared to the five-year average of 89%, while the amount of soybeans dropping leaves reached 95% compared to the five-year average of 92%.
For wheat, winter wheat planting reached 64% complete, up from 51% last week and compared to the five-year average of 66%. Emergence was seen at 35%, compared to 25% last week and the five-year average of 38%.
Russia’s union of grain exporters on Tuesday set its “consensus indicator” for wheat export prices at $240/ton in October, $245 in November, and $250 in December; this is the first time the group has made a public notification of such indicators.
Satellite data shows light rains fell in parts of the eastern Corn Belt and further into the northeast on Tuesday, though coverage was spotty and totals were generally less than a half inch.
Otherwise, there was again a lack of notable shifts in the US forecast overnight. Models are in good agreement on rainfall beginning the end of this week for the Southwest/Central Plains, with parts of NM, TX, OK, KS, and CO expected to receive anywhere from 0.5-3″, with some locally heavier amounts by the first part of next week.
Week-two forecasts continue to fluctuate, with the EU and GFS ensemble models in fair agreement on a wetter bias for the far northeast into Canada, but no more than average precipitation chances elsewhere.
Rainfall in South America on Tuesday was similar to what was seen on Monday; central/northern Brazil saw continued good rains, while northeast Argentina into southern Brazil also saw good moisture. The rest of Argentina was mostly dry.
Forecast changes here for the rest of the week were also minimal, as more of the same is expected in terms of precipitation for the rest of this week. Models see improved rainfall chances returning to Argentina by the end of this week and into next week, while regular early season showers are expected to remain in Brazil.
Have a great day.
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