Grain Comments: 10.16.23

Grain markets are mixed this morning, with corn lower, soybean little changed, and wheat futures higher. Crude oil, which rallied strongly Friday, is little changed. Wheat is supported by rumors that China will be buyers of more U.S. wheat.

Today’s Reports: Export Inspections, Crop Progress, NOPA Crush

Harvest pressure overnight was light after wet conditions limited weekend harvesting activity.

Little rainfall is expected for the corn belt this week which will allow corn and soybean harvest to pick back up. The NWS is forecasting above normal rainfall across nearly all of the Midwest the final week of October.

Traders expect this afternoon’s Crop Progress report to estimate U.S. harvest completion at near 60% for soybeans and 45% to 50% for corn.

Weather is less than ideal for planting in parts of Brazil as northern Brazil is experiencing an extended drought while too much rain plagues producers in southern Brazil.

However, in central Brazil, planting conditions are good, and producers have already planted a third of their soybean acreage in the state of Parana which is Brazil’s second largest corn and soybean producing state.

Forecasts show a continuation of less than normal rainfall for northern Brazil for at least the next ten days.

Drought in key wheat producing regions will cut Australian wheat production sharply. The USDA is forecasting production to decline from 39.7 MMTs in 22/23 to just 24.5 MMTs for 23/24.