Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are slightly higher to start the last trading day of the week, on what is expected to be another back-and-forth day. Fridays are trend days in Chicago and this week’s trend has been lower. On the fundamental side, the country is expecting another busy weekend of harvest progress, which likely keeps hedge selling present into today’s close also. Aside from that, attention continues to be focused on South American weather and planting progress, which likely made good strides in the past week. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-15 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 70 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 95 points. Metals are trading sharply higher this morning, with gold futures making new contract highs. Also of note, the SX/SF soybean spread again made new highs overnight, touching -7 1/2.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 10th is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 1.2-2.2 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 1.0-2.2 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 250k-550k mt’s.
China’s General Administration of Customs show September soybean imports at 11.37 mil tons, which is up nearly 60% from September of 2023; cumulative calendar year imports through Sep are seen at 81.85 mil tons, which is up just over 8% from last year.
Corn imports were seen at 310k tons, which is down more than 80% from September of last year, and wheat imports were seen at 250k tons, which is down more than 60% from Sep last year. Cumulative corn imports in the year are down more than 22%, while wheat imports are up 5.5%.
Weekly update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed Argentina corn planting pace continues to run ahead of last year but slightly behind average at 24.3% complete, up from 18.6% last week. There is still no estimate this week for soybean planting.
The IGC (International Grains Council) marginally raised their estimates of world grain stocks on Thursday to 584 mil tons, compared to their September estimate of 581 mil tons. Total grain production estimate was unchanged at 2.32 bil tons.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region declared a state of emergency on Thursday, which allows farmers here to seek compensation from crop loss due to severe weather this season; this is the sixth region to declare such measures.
French ag company FranceAgriMer reported corn harvest in the country at 13% complete as of Monday, up slightly from last week but still well behind the five-year average of 55%. Soft wheat was 10% harvested compared to the average of 27%.
Brage shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 12th were seen at 568k tons, up more than 53% from the week prior. Corn shipments were up 12.6% at 224k tons, and soybean shipments were up 122.4% at 327k tons. Barge rates at STL were down $3.95 from the week prior.
The EUR/USD currency spread fell to its lowest level since the beginning of August yesterday after the European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the second consecutive month and for the third time this year. Analysts also see a fourth cut in December as likely.
Israeli forces on Thursday killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was the mastermind behind the October 7th, 2023, attacks and kidnappings that started what has now been a more than year-long war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, promised to press on with the war in Gaza even after the leader’s death had been confirmed.
Satellite data shows rains began falling in the western part of the US on Thursday, with totals reaching up to 0.75″. Coverage was spotty, but rains are expected to continue falling into the first part of next week; the heaviest amounts are seen in the northeast corner of New Mexico, with totals possibly reaching 6-7″ in a small local area.
The EU is then wetter than the GFS through next week with more showers seen further to the east into OK/AR, but totals will be light. Things look to remain mostly dry again next week for most of the Corn Belt.
On the week-two runs, the EU AI model still sees a band of above average precipitation potential from OK through OH and into Canada but neither the EU/GFS ensemble models, nor the CPC’s week two outlook, have picked up on this.
Temps will be cool in the Southwest through the weekend, while the Midwest and most of the eastern half of the country will see temps that are again above average for mid-October. Highs will touch the 80*F mark in parts of MN/WI/IA on Sunday.
Aside from southern/southeastern Brazil, most all of Brazil and Argentina saw good rains on Thursday according to satellite data; totals in Brazil ranged anywhere from 0.05″ to 3.5″ generally speaking, while Argentina saw totals of 0.05″ to 2″.
Forecasts continue to show the same general pattern as previous days, with a good mix of rain and sunshine forecast for most of all of the growing regions in both countries into the first part of November.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-18-2024
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures are slightly higher to start the last trading day of the week, on what is expected to be another back-and-forth day. Fridays are trend days in Chicago and this week’s trend has been lower. On the fundamental side, the country is expecting another busy weekend of harvest progress, which likely keeps hedge selling present into today’s close also. Aside from that, attention continues to be focused on South American weather and planting progress, which likely made good strides in the past week. Corn futures this morning are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-15 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 70 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 95 points. Metals are trading sharply higher this morning, with gold futures making new contract highs. Also of note, the SX/SF soybean spread again made new highs overnight, touching -7 1/2.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending October 10th is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 1.2-2.2 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 1.0-2.2 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 250k-550k mt’s.
China’s General Administration of Customs show September soybean imports at 11.37 mil tons, which is up nearly 60% from September of 2023; cumulative calendar year imports through Sep are seen at 81.85 mil tons, which is up just over 8% from last year.
Corn imports were seen at 310k tons, which is down more than 80% from September of last year, and wheat imports were seen at 250k tons, which is down more than 60% from Sep last year. Cumulative corn imports in the year are down more than 22%, while wheat imports are up 5.5%.
Weekly update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed Argentina corn planting pace continues to run ahead of last year but slightly behind average at 24.3% complete, up from 18.6% last week. There is still no estimate this week for soybean planting.
The IGC (International Grains Council) marginally raised their estimates of world grain stocks on Thursday to 584 mil tons, compared to their September estimate of 581 mil tons. Total grain production estimate was unchanged at 2.32 bil tons.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region declared a state of emergency on Thursday, which allows farmers here to seek compensation from crop loss due to severe weather this season; this is the sixth region to declare such measures.
French ag company FranceAgriMer reported corn harvest in the country at 13% complete as of Monday, up slightly from last week but still well behind the five-year average of 55%. Soft wheat was 10% harvested compared to the average of 27%.
Brage shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 12th were seen at 568k tons, up more than 53% from the week prior. Corn shipments were up 12.6% at 224k tons, and soybean shipments were up 122.4% at 327k tons. Barge rates at STL were down $3.95 from the week prior.
The EUR/USD currency spread fell to its lowest level since the beginning of August yesterday after the European Central Bank lowered interest rates for the second consecutive month and for the third time this year. Analysts also see a fourth cut in December as likely.
Israeli forces on Thursday killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was the mastermind behind the October 7th, 2023, attacks and kidnappings that started what has now been a more than year-long war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, promised to press on with the war in Gaza even after the leader’s death had been confirmed.
Satellite data shows rains began falling in the western part of the US on Thursday, with totals reaching up to 0.75″. Coverage was spotty, but rains are expected to continue falling into the first part of next week; the heaviest amounts are seen in the northeast corner of New Mexico, with totals possibly reaching 6-7″ in a small local area.
The EU is then wetter than the GFS through next week with more showers seen further to the east into OK/AR, but totals will be light. Things look to remain mostly dry again next week for most of the Corn Belt.
On the week-two runs, the EU AI model still sees a band of above average precipitation potential from OK through OH and into Canada but neither the EU/GFS ensemble models, nor the CPC’s week two outlook, have picked up on this.
Temps will be cool in the Southwest through the weekend, while the Midwest and most of the eastern half of the country will see temps that are again above average for mid-October. Highs will touch the 80*F mark in parts of MN/WI/IA on Sunday.
Aside from southern/southeastern Brazil, most all of Brazil and Argentina saw good rains on Thursday according to satellite data; totals in Brazil ranged anywhere from 0.05″ to 3.5″ generally speaking, while Argentina saw totals of 0.05″ to 2″.
Forecasts continue to show the same general pattern as previous days, with a good mix of rain and sunshine forecast for most of all of the growing regions in both countries into the first part of November.
Have a great day.
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