Good morning.
Overnight ag markets to get the new week started have done little to nothing the last several hours, with row crop futures seeing almost no trading ranges and little volume at this writing this morning amid a lack of fresh weekend input and as US harvest progress likely surpasses the 50% done mark in this afternoon’s update. We talked about it quite a bit last week, but the October WASDE has led traders to hit pause on further pressing the long side of the space for the time being, with funds looking for new input to either justify sticking with long positions or continue liquidating like has been the case of late. There still exist enough risk points for funds to stay long for now, but money flow to the long side of the markets is notably different today than it was this time four weeks ago.
Corn futures to start Monday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading around a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading around a penny lower.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending October 13th were sellers of 86,481 contracts of corn (+230,877), sellers of 14,169 contracts of soybeans (+237,491) and were sellers of 3,495 contracts of Chicago wheat (-33,038); in the soy products, funds were sellers of 672 contracts of meal (+206,131) and were sellers of 10,119 contracts of oil (+89,328).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said over the weekend that Ukraine was in talks with Turkey, Egypt and India on the possibility of opening up civil navigation in the Black Sea, specifically for ag exports. Zelensky also asked the EU to review so-called ‘solidarity lanes’ that were implemented when the war began and allowed some grain to be exported via EU rails and ports. The situation remains little changed from last week otherwise.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina late last week said that 2025/26 farmer grain sales have already reached more than 105 MMTs, which is a record for this point in the season. The figure is up some 25% from average sales levels during the last five years and is nearly 6 million tons above the previous record, largely on record crop harvests.
Chinese government data released this week showed domestic pork production in the country from January through September at 45.08 MMTs, which is up more than 3% from the same period a year ago as farmers ramped up slaughter to try and reduce excess inventories. China’s pig herd was seen at 425.33 million head as of the end of September, down 2.6% from a year ago.
US weather forecasts this morning are calling for minimal precip across the region this week while temperatures are expected to be more seasonally warm than was seen the last couple days. The models have a bit of light rainfall for NE/SD/MN and some of the northwestern part of the region the end of this week and into the weekend, but high pressure over the broader eastern half of the country will keep the rest of the Midwest warmer and dry through the week this week.
Brazil weather this week looks to see a bit of a shift back to wet south, drier north, as light rains over the central part of the country last week intensify and move back south. Argentina, while cooler than desired, continues to see near-normal rainfall chances throughout most of the country this week, with some areas to the south possibly seeing above average rains.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-19-2026
Good morning.
Overnight ag markets to get the new week started have done little to nothing the last several hours, with row crop futures seeing almost no trading ranges and little volume at this writing this morning amid a lack of fresh weekend input and as US harvest progress likely surpasses the 50% done mark in this afternoon’s update. We talked about it quite a bit last week, but the October WASDE has led traders to hit pause on further pressing the long side of the space for the time being, with funds looking for new input to either justify sticking with long positions or continue liquidating like has been the case of late. There still exist enough risk points for funds to stay long for now, but money flow to the long side of the markets is notably different today than it was this time four weeks ago.
Corn futures to start Monday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading around a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading around a penny lower.
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders update from the CFTC showed managed money traders in the week ending October 13th were sellers of 86,481 contracts of corn (+230,877), sellers of 14,169 contracts of soybeans (+237,491) and were sellers of 3,495 contracts of Chicago wheat (-33,038); in the soy products, funds were sellers of 672 contracts of meal (+206,131) and were sellers of 10,119 contracts of oil (+89,328).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said over the weekend that Ukraine was in talks with Turkey, Egypt and India on the possibility of opening up civil navigation in the Black Sea, specifically for ag exports. Zelensky also asked the EU to review so-called ‘solidarity lanes’ that were implemented when the war began and allowed some grain to be exported via EU rails and ports. The situation remains little changed from last week otherwise.
The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina late last week said that 2025/26 farmer grain sales have already reached more than 105 MMTs, which is a record for this point in the season. The figure is up some 25% from average sales levels during the last five years and is nearly 6 million tons above the previous record, largely on record crop harvests.
Chinese government data released this week showed domestic pork production in the country from January through September at 45.08 MMTs, which is up more than 3% from the same period a year ago as farmers ramped up slaughter to try and reduce excess inventories. China’s pig herd was seen at 425.33 million head as of the end of September, down 2.6% from a year ago.
US weather forecasts this morning are calling for minimal precip across the region this week while temperatures are expected to be more seasonally warm than was seen the last couple days. The models have a bit of light rainfall for NE/SD/MN and some of the northwestern part of the region the end of this week and into the weekend, but high pressure over the broader eastern half of the country will keep the rest of the Midwest warmer and dry through the week this week.
Brazil weather this week looks to see a bit of a shift back to wet south, drier north, as light rains over the central part of the country last week intensify and move back south. Argentina, while cooler than desired, continues to see near-normal rainfall chances throughout most of the country this week, with some areas to the south possibly seeing above average rains.
Have a great day.
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