Good morning.
Higher overnight trade in the energy markets again has been unable to pull the ag space with it this time, as CBOT grain and soy values are trading lower at mid-week this morning on additional risk-off sentiment present from developments on the geopolitical front this week that have spurred ongoing long liquidation by the funds. We’ve said for weeks that we’re skeptical either of the two wars at present find quick solutions, and while there’s been an uptick in diplomacy efforts on both fronts recently, we are largely still standing by this sentiment amid broader underlying issues still existing. Russia wants Ukrainian territory in the Donbas region that Ukraine won’t cede, and Iran has still refused to give up nuclear ambitions to this point which is sticking point number one for the US. So long as these situations remain unchanged, the wars are likely to drag on.
Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-9 cents lower.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA, with data for the week ending October 16th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1,075-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.70-23.90 mil bbls; on average, production would be up from the week prior while stocks would be lower.
The USDA said Tuesday that it was planning to resume cattle imports from two additional US ports of entry on the border with Mexico, one next week in New Mexico and then one at the end of November in Arizona as long as conditions for safe trade are in place. The USDA in recent months has resumed cattle imports at two other ports following a complete border closure to fight against the spread of New World Screwworm last year.
Data shows Brazil’s corn export program has continued to be strong through the month of October, with privates seeing shipments in the month reaching upwards of 6.9 MMTs; this would be up from roughly 6.5 MMTs during October of 2025, indicating that South American supplies remain a headwind for US exporters. Soybean exports in the month are seen at 6.4 MMTs.
Sources familiar with the happenings say China’s Sinograin this week sold 297k tons of reserve soybeans at auction, representing about 59% of the total offered. China has been auctioning off beans on a near-weekly basis since August to make room for new incoming US purchases. Remember, Chinese buyers like US beans for reserves because they store better than the higher oil content beans that come from Brazil.
While most ag trade focus remains on happenings with China, the White House has quietly still been working on other deals ahead of the November midterms – sources familiar say agreements with both India and Canada remain in the works, though when they’d be finalized remains unclear at this point. Its possible details are released ahead of the elections on the 3rd, but most feel the deals are unlikely to be finalized by then despite ongoing progress.
Weather news is limited this morning across both North and South America, with the forecasts overnight little changed from previous runs. The Midwest still sees little if any rainfall chances into the weekend before precip looks to return to the northwestern part of the region into next week, while Brazil and Argentina see a variable mix of rain and sunshine through the week that should continue to allow for good planting progress. Southern Brazil is on the too wet side, and northern Brazil is on the too dry side, but overall concern today remains generally minimal.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-21-2026
Good morning.
Higher overnight trade in the energy markets again has been unable to pull the ag space with it this time, as CBOT grain and soy values are trading lower at mid-week this morning on additional risk-off sentiment present from developments on the geopolitical front this week that have spurred ongoing long liquidation by the funds. We’ve said for weeks that we’re skeptical either of the two wars at present find quick solutions, and while there’s been an uptick in diplomacy efforts on both fronts recently, we are largely still standing by this sentiment amid broader underlying issues still existing. Russia wants Ukrainian territory in the Donbas region that Ukraine won’t cede, and Iran has still refused to give up nuclear ambitions to this point which is sticking point number one for the US. So long as these situations remain unchanged, the wars are likely to drag on.
Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 5-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-9 cents lower.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA, with data for the week ending October 16th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1,075-1.095 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.70-23.90 mil bbls; on average, production would be up from the week prior while stocks would be lower.
The USDA said Tuesday that it was planning to resume cattle imports from two additional US ports of entry on the border with Mexico, one next week in New Mexico and then one at the end of November in Arizona as long as conditions for safe trade are in place. The USDA in recent months has resumed cattle imports at two other ports following a complete border closure to fight against the spread of New World Screwworm last year.
Data shows Brazil’s corn export program has continued to be strong through the month of October, with privates seeing shipments in the month reaching upwards of 6.9 MMTs; this would be up from roughly 6.5 MMTs during October of 2025, indicating that South American supplies remain a headwind for US exporters. Soybean exports in the month are seen at 6.4 MMTs.
Sources familiar with the happenings say China’s Sinograin this week sold 297k tons of reserve soybeans at auction, representing about 59% of the total offered. China has been auctioning off beans on a near-weekly basis since August to make room for new incoming US purchases. Remember, Chinese buyers like US beans for reserves because they store better than the higher oil content beans that come from Brazil.
While most ag trade focus remains on happenings with China, the White House has quietly still been working on other deals ahead of the November midterms – sources familiar say agreements with both India and Canada remain in the works, though when they’d be finalized remains unclear at this point. Its possible details are released ahead of the elections on the 3rd, but most feel the deals are unlikely to be finalized by then despite ongoing progress.
Weather news is limited this morning across both North and South America, with the forecasts overnight little changed from previous runs. The Midwest still sees little if any rainfall chances into the weekend before precip looks to return to the northwestern part of the region into next week, while Brazil and Argentina see a variable mix of rain and sunshine through the week that should continue to allow for good planting progress. Southern Brazil is on the too wet side, and northern Brazil is on the too dry side, but overall concern today remains generally minimal.
Have a great day.
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