Grain Comments: 10-26-2023

Good morning

Grain trade volume swelled overnight and volatility in-creased, but it all has amounted to little-changed values thus far with major moves tough to come by either way. The Ukraine war rages on with Black Sea shipments constantly under duress, but that hasn’t stopped a decent flow of grains from Ukraine overall, albeit somewhat lower than pre-war export levels. The U.S. winter wheat crop should get off to a nice start thanks to the wettest overall weather stretch in quite some time, directly following the bulk of the crop’s 2023 planting campaign. Corn and soybeans don’t have much to go on during this particular stretch, though weekly export sales will be scrutinized for signs of increased demand from China and other major buyers.

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister said that grain exports through the new Black Sea corridor could exceed a million tonnes in October; however, the use of that corridor was suspended today due to a threat from Russian warplanes.

Heavy rains continued in the Plains and Midwest over the past 24 hours, heaviest again in the southern Plains ranging up into the heart of the corn belt; action remains in the same areas today, but the wet pattern will linger right through the weekend. Another 2-3” plus accumulation is expected yet from the southern Plains through the eastern and southeastern corn belt. Conditions will dry up next week for the 6-10 days, wet again for the 11-15 day time frame. Temperatures will dip into the 6-10, back above normal for the 11-15.

Argentina was dry over the past 24 hours, but chances will increase today through Monday in the heart of the country’s crop areas; conditions turn back drier for the 6-10 day period save for chances in the west/southwest. Brazilian crop areas were dry yesterday save for scattered rains east, but heavy amounts are on the way over the next five days and they’ll favor central-eastern crop areas. Action continues for BRZ crops during the 6-10 day period as well.

Have a great day.