Grain Comments: 10.31.23

Ag markets are mixed this morning. Soybeans are trading 1-2 cents lower, while meal is trading higher. Wheat is down 6-7 cents and corn is mostly unchanged. Bean oil is down 30 points. Outside markets are trading higher, Dow futures are up 130 points, crude oil is up .60 cents after yesterday’s sell-off and U.S. dollar is slightly lower.

Today’s Reports: API Energy Stocks; Consumer Confidence; Chicago PMI

• Two day FOMC meeting begins today. The overwhelming consensus is that the central bank will leave rates unchanged.
• On Friday the U.S. Labor Department will release the monthly jobs report. The report is expected to show 190,000 jobs created. But last month, the number came in way above the 170,000 expected, at 336,000, so analysts will be watching to see if that was a fluke or the start of a stronger hiring trend ahead of the holidays.
• Recent rains has helped stabilize the US river. St Louis and Cairo will see a nice increase in water levels before beginning to drop Nov 5th-11th.
• Deliveries against November futures consisted of 438 lots of soybeans. There were no meal or soybean oil deliveries.
• China’s PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.5 in October from 50.2, dipping back below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion.
• Rainfall for center west Brazil will remain limited into the weekend with increasing shower activity next week. Southern Brazil will continue to receive additional heavy rainfall into Friday before several days of drying finally evolves
• New wire reporting China will import 12.0 MMTs of world wheat in 23/24.

Corn harvest at 71% complete vs. 69% estimated. Soybean harvest 85% complete vs 85% estimated