Good morning:
Markets across the commodity space are quiet this morning, as there are few traders or market participants who are willing to take on new risk that isn’t purely speculative over the next 24 hours. It is important to remember that even by 7pm central time tonight when the ag markets re-open, there is a good chance the winner of the election may still be unknown, meaning Wednesday’s trade, if not even Thursday or Friday’s, is likely where we’ll see the volatility and fireworks if any are to occur. Corn futures this morning are trading near unchanged, soybean futures are 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents higher. Products are quiet/ higher, soybean meal is up 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 5 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around 50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 80 points.
Monday afternoon’s harvest progress update was mostly as expected; corn harvest as of Sunday, November 3rd was seen at 91% complete, and soybean harvest was seen at 94% complete; corn harvest is 16% ahead of average, while soybean harvest is 9% ahead of average.
Winter wheat planting advanced to 87% on the week, up from 80% the week prior and compared to the five-year average of 89%. Conditions in the g/ex category were up 3% on the week to 41%, while emergence advanced 10% to 66%.
The increase in g/ex ratings at the state level came from Arkansas being up 20%, Illinois being up 17%, and Oklahoma being up 10%. On the other side, South Dakota declined by 9%, Texas was down 6%, and Indiana was down 4%.
According to Brazilian consulting firm Agrural, soybean planting in the country has reached 54% complete as of October 31st, which is now ahead of last year’s pace of 51% complete and is also just the second slowest pace on record between 2018/19’s 60%. Summer corn planting in central/southern Brazil reached 59% complete, compared to 66% complete last year.
Private US ag company StoneX released their monthly yield estimate figures yesterday afternoon for the month of November; the group pegged corn yield at 183.7 bu, down from their previous estimate of 184.0, and pegged soybean yield at 52.6 bu, down from 53.5 last month.
Ukraine’s ag ministry said on Tuesday that the country’s winter grain crop was just under 95% planted, with 4.91 of the intended 5.19 mil hectares completed. Winter what accounted for more than 95% of this total.
India’s farm ministry on Tuesday said that rice production during the monsoon season is expected to reach 119.93 mmt’s in the coming season, which would be up from last year’s 113.26 mmt’s, and also a new all-time record.
Economic data will be mostly quiet on Tuesday aside from US trade data for the month of September. Bond markets and currencies, along with the major stock index futures, are all mostly quiet with relatively small trading ranges so far this morning.
Other financial news included Boeing shares being up around 2% in pre-market trading last night, as a deal has been struck between the company and the Union representing its workers who had been on strike for seven weeks now.
Rains continued to fall across the Midwest and midsouth on Monday, with totals through AR/MO/southern IL reaching upwards of 4-5″ in some places in the 24-hour period ended 6am central time this morning. And more rains are expected to keep falling through the day Tuesday, with an additional 1-3″ possible between now and mid-morning tomorrow.
Models then see an additional storm system sweeping through mostly the same parts of the Midwest this weekend into early next week, with expected totals from this storm ranging in the 1-3″ ballpark also. Week-two forecasts are also again wet overnight, as this new wet pattern looks to last at least into the middle of the month.
The EU’s 10–15-day temp outlook trended slightly cooler overnight in the eastern half of the US, but the GFS model solution still sees the warmer bias for the east that has been in place for weeks. This will be monitored going forward. Short-term, not a lot of change – temps will continue be well above average in the east and well below average in the west.
Satellite data in South America shows central/northern Brazil received 0.1-3.5″ of rainfall on Monday, while southern Brazil was mostly dry. Argentina saw scattered showers mostly in a band through the central part of the country and into the southeast, with the heaviest totals south of Buenos Aires reaching upwards of 1.5″.
Forecast for the rest of this week and through next week continues to show more of the same, as the heaviest rainfall amounts will be seen in central/northern Brazil. Argentina into southern Brazil sees more spotty rains in the same time period, but a forecast with no moisture at all remains absent at least into the back half of November.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-05-2024
Good morning:
Markets across the commodity space are quiet this morning, as there are few traders or market participants who are willing to take on new risk that isn’t purely speculative over the next 24 hours. It is important to remember that even by 7pm central time tonight when the ag markets re-open, there is a good chance the winner of the election may still be unknown, meaning Wednesday’s trade, if not even Thursday or Friday’s, is likely where we’ll see the volatility and fireworks if any are to occur. Corn futures this morning are trading near unchanged, soybean futures are 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 2-3 cents higher. Products are quiet/ higher, soybean meal is up 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 5 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around 50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 80 points.
Monday afternoon’s harvest progress update was mostly as expected; corn harvest as of Sunday, November 3rd was seen at 91% complete, and soybean harvest was seen at 94% complete; corn harvest is 16% ahead of average, while soybean harvest is 9% ahead of average.
Winter wheat planting advanced to 87% on the week, up from 80% the week prior and compared to the five-year average of 89%. Conditions in the g/ex category were up 3% on the week to 41%, while emergence advanced 10% to 66%.
The increase in g/ex ratings at the state level came from Arkansas being up 20%, Illinois being up 17%, and Oklahoma being up 10%. On the other side, South Dakota declined by 9%, Texas was down 6%, and Indiana was down 4%.
According to Brazilian consulting firm Agrural, soybean planting in the country has reached 54% complete as of October 31st, which is now ahead of last year’s pace of 51% complete and is also just the second slowest pace on record between 2018/19’s 60%. Summer corn planting in central/southern Brazil reached 59% complete, compared to 66% complete last year.
Private US ag company StoneX released their monthly yield estimate figures yesterday afternoon for the month of November; the group pegged corn yield at 183.7 bu, down from their previous estimate of 184.0, and pegged soybean yield at 52.6 bu, down from 53.5 last month.
Ukraine’s ag ministry said on Tuesday that the country’s winter grain crop was just under 95% planted, with 4.91 of the intended 5.19 mil hectares completed. Winter what accounted for more than 95% of this total.
India’s farm ministry on Tuesday said that rice production during the monsoon season is expected to reach 119.93 mmt’s in the coming season, which would be up from last year’s 113.26 mmt’s, and also a new all-time record.
Economic data will be mostly quiet on Tuesday aside from US trade data for the month of September. Bond markets and currencies, along with the major stock index futures, are all mostly quiet with relatively small trading ranges so far this morning.
Other financial news included Boeing shares being up around 2% in pre-market trading last night, as a deal has been struck between the company and the Union representing its workers who had been on strike for seven weeks now.
Rains continued to fall across the Midwest and midsouth on Monday, with totals through AR/MO/southern IL reaching upwards of 4-5″ in some places in the 24-hour period ended 6am central time this morning. And more rains are expected to keep falling through the day Tuesday, with an additional 1-3″ possible between now and mid-morning tomorrow.
Models then see an additional storm system sweeping through mostly the same parts of the Midwest this weekend into early next week, with expected totals from this storm ranging in the 1-3″ ballpark also. Week-two forecasts are also again wet overnight, as this new wet pattern looks to last at least into the middle of the month.
The EU’s 10–15-day temp outlook trended slightly cooler overnight in the eastern half of the US, but the GFS model solution still sees the warmer bias for the east that has been in place for weeks. This will be monitored going forward. Short-term, not a lot of change – temps will continue be well above average in the east and well below average in the west.
Satellite data in South America shows central/northern Brazil received 0.1-3.5″ of rainfall on Monday, while southern Brazil was mostly dry. Argentina saw scattered showers mostly in a band through the central part of the country and into the southeast, with the heaviest totals south of Buenos Aires reaching upwards of 1.5″.
Forecast for the rest of this week and through next week continues to show more of the same, as the heaviest rainfall amounts will be seen in central/northern Brazil. Argentina into southern Brazil sees more spotty rains in the same time period, but a forecast with no moisture at all remains absent at least into the back half of November.
Have a great day.
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