Grain Comments: 11-13-2026

Good morning.

Corn led stronger overnight trade volume into the end of the week but soybeans are leading gains on an absolute basis, and wheat is leading gains percentage wise, with the spot Chicago December wheat contract initially touching new multi month lows on the open before rebounding throughout the overnight session. Ukrainian officials earlier this week noted the likelihood of increased ending stocks and are now indicating a fairly alarming production hit for this season, with no end in sight to the Russia-Ukraine war which is now heading towards its fifth year.

Brazilian government supply agency Conab this morning left their 2026/27 corn and soybean production estimates steady at 148.0 and 181.6 MMT, respectively; corn exports were cut from 46 to 43 MMT, with wheat production down this month as well, from 5.7 to 5.3 MMT due to lower yields and quality during the El Nino pattern. Wheat imports for ‘26/27 were increased from 7.1 to 8.9 million tonnes.

Ukraine’s Ag Minister this morning said the country’s 2027 plantings could be reduced by 6.3 million hectares (15.6 million acres) due to export difficulties, a potential 24-25 MMT production decline. Cumulative exports from July 1 through November 13 stand at 7.1 MMT, compared to 10.6 MMT a season ago.

FranceAgriMer reported the country’s soft wheat planting progress at 93% complete this week, up from 83% a week ago.

The Rosario Grains Exchange raised their 2026/27 Argentine wheat production estimate from 23.8 to 24.3 MMT due to better weather conditions.

‘26/27 Export Sales Estimates (000 tonnes): Corn: 2000-3000 / 1294.6 Estimate Range / Last Week Beans: 850-2000 / 1456.1 Meal: 250-450 / 390.4 WEATHER UPDATE Oil: 0-10 / 1.5 Wheat: 350-650 / 538.0

Rain and snow linger in the ECB this morning, but drier overall conditions remain through the heart of the country for the next five days; extended forecasts continue to run wet, with temperatures remaining warm up through late November.

Argentina was mostly dry yesterday, but above-normal rains will dominate most of the next ten days; Brazil saw light and scattered action in the northeast over the past 24 hours, and heavy rains will move from north to south over the next 7-10 days.

Have a great day.