Grain Comments: 11.21.25

Good morning. Happy Friday. Overnight trade has been quietly lower with minimal volume so far to begin wrapping up the week this morning, led to the downside mostly by the oil markets, as both crude oil and soybean oil are trading lower to sharply lower to get the day started. From a news standpoint, we don’t see a lot as overly pressing for Friday, with there not expected to be much in terms of notable data or fundamental updates besides maybe some additional flash sales this morning. An update from Trump/the EPA regarding the biofuel situation would also quickly grab the attention of traders, but otherwise, we see technical trading as being the name of the game on Friday. Soybean bulls would like to see this week’s lows held at 11.14, while the corn market has been sitting on the 50-day moving average at 4.25 1/2 both yesterday and again this morning; should either of these areas fail, we would anticipate a lower start to the week next week barring any unforeseen headlines over the weekend. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is near unchanged and soybean oil is down 70-80 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 150 points, and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 50 points.

Today’s Reports: Oct & Nov Cattle on Feed; CFTC Report for week ending Oct 7

• The USDA is expected to release monthly cattle on feed data for both the delayed October report and also the November report that was originally supposed to be released tomorrow; traders see the report showing the November feedlot herd at 11.703 mil head, which would be 98% of last year. Placements in October (November report) are seen at 2.087 mil head, 92% of last year, and marketings are seen at 1.705 mil head, also 92% of last year. The report will be out at its regular 2:00pm central time.

• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s weekly crop update showed Argentine corn planting pace at 37.3% complete, which is up just 0.7% from last week, while soybean planting pace reached 24.6%, up 12% from the week prior. Both figures are behind last year’s pace, though corn planting still remains ahead of average. The group also mentioned that late season corn planting was expected to begin in the coming days, and that 100% of the crop that had been planted was in good/excellent condition. Wheat harvest advanced 3.8% on the week to 20.3% complete, while production was again held steady at 24 MMTs.

• The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday raised their global 2025/26 grain production forecast by 5 MMTs from a previous estimate to 2.43 billion MTs, which would result in stocks coming in at a three year high of 619 MMTs. The group said wheat production could hit 830 MMTs, while corn production could reach 1.98 billion MTs.

• Its being reported this morning that President Trump has signed an order that removes the 40% tariffs previously applied on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee, cocoa, and fruits, in a move that reverses the measures that were just applied a few months ago in July. The rollback, which is retroactive to November 13th, comes amid an ongoing push by Trump to lower food costs in the US and is also seen as a way to further restore trade relations between the two sides that have become more strained this year.

• Both Bloomberg and Reuters have reported this week, citing Ag Secretary Rollins, that relief for US farmers in the form of government payments was coming soon, with proposal and subsequent aid package expected to be finalized sometime by early December. Rollins didn’t give specifics on the payments, but its assumed that the package would likely resemble earlier trade assistance programs and could potentially be funded, at least in part, by revenue generated from the President’s tariffs.

• While Nvidia’s earnings were the talk of the tech sector yesterday in the macro world, investors were also tuned into the delayed release of the September jobs report, which showed non-farm payrolls in the month increased by 119,000, which was more than double what was forecast. Despite the jump, unemployment still ticked up to 4.4% in the month, which is the highest reading since October of 2021. As it pertains to interest rates, the data further lessens the odds that another cut is seen before the end of the year, with the CME’s FedWatch tool now pricing just a slightly better than 40% chance that rates are trimmed again in December.

• Weekend weather across the Midwest will feature ongoing rainfall through the southern half of the region and into the mid-south and southeast, with totals through Sunday night expected to range from a half inch to two inches, generally speaking, though coverage will be somewhat spotty and there will be potential for heavier totals in some local areas. To the north, the line made from the MO/IA border extended both east and west will generally be where the moisture stops, with areas north of here expected to remain on the drier side.