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Grain Comments: 11-22-2023

Good morning!

Overnight ag markets are mixed. Corn is trading near unchanged, wheat is up 5-6 cents and soybeans are down 10-11 cents. Soybean meal is down $1.60/ton and soy oil is down 42 points. US Dollar is up 121 points, Dow Futures are up 44 points and crude oil is down over $2.00/barrel.

The trade is expecting confirmation from the USDA of additional soybean sales to China. Rumors the past two days have China booking 6-8 cargoes of the PNW. Sino Grain is rumored to be the buyer

.Rumors also continuing to circulate China is seeking U.S. SRW.

Israeli and Hamas reached a deal that includes a four-day pause in fighting and the release of at least 50 women and children held hostage in Gaza. The plan would also include the release of 150 Palestinians from Israeli jails.

Brazil weather continues to remain in the forefront as planting progress remains well behind. On Monday CONAB reported soy seeding at 65.0% complete versus 76.0% last year. First crop corn seeding was pegged at 49.0% versus 63.0% last year. There is a lot of discussion on what the farmer will do moving forward. Will he replant beans, leave what bean stand is currently there so he can grow a safrina crop or seed cotton?

General consensus has Brazilian safrina production dropping due to slow soy seeding which will lead to reduced second crop acres.

Weather forecast shows rain will bring some relief to central Brazil over the remainder of the week. The rains will be more typical of wet season showers. Unfortunately showers will be more isolated next week. Southern Brazil will remain wet with additional rains over the next two weeks.

Argentina forecast continues to show a nice mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks to most of the country’s growing regions.

Goldman Sachs top executives expects the U.S. Treasuries curve to steepen in the long term, driven by rising fiscal spending..

OPEC meets this weekend to discuss further production cuts. Some feel the group is considering additional cuts as oil prices have fallen nearly 20% since late September.

Argentine grains traders said on Tuesday that the country’s farmers were holding back soy sales and would likely keep doing so ahead of the mid-December inauguration of President-elect Javier Milei, who has pledged to cut taxes and weaken the peso.

Happy Thanksgiving!

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