Good morning.
Ag markets are mostly higher to start Tuesday trade, largely in a reversal of yesterday’s quietly lower trade; product markets are seeing the most activity of the group this morning with active spread pricing noted in the overnight hours, but the corn, beans and wheat all have small trading ranges and again have a holiday-like feel to them early today. News-wise, an exchange of missiles overnight between Russia and Ukraine could be pointed to as reason for the small reversal, especially in wheat, but we see this as more the news trying to fit the market and would assume price action today (and likely for the rest of the week) is more a product of limited money flow than anything else. With no trade Thursday and just a partial session on Friday, there’s a good chance a portion of the space will have called it quits for the week by the time the closing bell rings this afternoon, further exacerbating the situation. Corn futures to get Tuesday rolling are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are mostly lower to start, crude oil futures are down $1.20-1.30/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
USDA’s NASS released its final weekly crop progress update for the year yesterday afternoon. The report showed corn harvest progress as of Sunday at 96% complete; ND and MI still have the most to go at just 89% complete, while WI is at 90% and MI and NE are both at 92%. Winter wheat seeding was seen at 97% complete, while emergence ticked up to 87% and G/EX conditions were up 3% on the week to 48% complete.
Brazil’s CONAB late in the day yesterday showed soybean planting progress in the country at 78% complete as of Saturday, which is up 9% from last week and up 2.2% from the five-year average, but down from 83.3% seen through the same date last year. First crop corn planting was seen at 59.3% complete, which is up from 52.6% last week and is just marginally ahead of both last year and the five-year average.
According to shipping data seen by Reuters, two cargo vessels are headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans as of yesterday, which are to be loaded with the first Chinese soybean shipments since May. The data shows a third vessel was bound for a grain terminal on the Texas Gulf Coast, which is expected to be loaded with US sorghum bound for China.
As China continues to face a glut of soybeans, export data for October showed the country’s soybean oil imports in the month surged to 70,877 tons, most of which was bound for India. This brought cumulative Chinese soybean oil imports so far in 2025 to 329,000 tons, which is nearly triple the total for the entire 2024 calendar year.
Ukraine’s Economy Ministry said on Tuesday that the country’s farmers had sown 6.4 million hectares of winter crops as of today, which equates to about 98% of the intended area. The ministry has previously said farmers had intended to increase winter grain plantings this year to around 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 mil in 2025. Forecasters said earlier this month that weather conditions had been favorable for development to this point in the year.
Along similar lines, the EU’s MARS unit said on Monday that both dry conditions and too wet conditions in different parts of the bloc had delayed winter grain plantings. The group added that milder temperatures have also led to the inter hardening this year being “noticeably less advanced” than at the same time last year.
China’s commerce ministry said on Tuesday that the country had extended its investigation into beef imports by another two months, saying the investigation will now run through January 26th. This marks the second time the probe has been extended since it was implemented almost a year ago last December, with officials citing “the complexity of the case” as the reason for the latest extension. The move gives global suppliers a slightly longer time frame to prepare for potential trade restrictions as the domestic industry continues to deal with oversupply.
Bloomberg is reporting this morning that trade talks between the US and Canada have again come to a standstill as the two sides continue to struggle to find common ground. Sources familiar say they increasingly believe the negotiations will likely be pushed into the full review of the USMCA trade deal that is expected to take place next year. Similarly, but unrelated, sources also say the EU has rejected a US proposal to ease tech regulations in exchange for the US lowering duties on steel, seemingly keeping relations strained here also.
Following a rebound in the odds the Fed will make one more interest rate cut before the year ends over the last several days, economists and investors will have their focus squarely on today’s PPI and retail sales updates, as these data points will likely go a long way in determining where this cut indeed happens or not. Focus of late has centered on the jobs market, but comments from Fed Governor Williams last week that he saw the still elevated inflation reading as temporary.
Models have continued to struggle for consistency on the winter storm system that’s expected to impact most of the Midwest the end of this week and weekend, as the EU model is heavier on the snowfall through the central part of the region than the GFS is. There is good model agreement on the size and timing of the system, but exactly who receives rain vs snow and exactly what the accumulation ends up being in a specific are will be difficult to forecast. Temperatures will drop as this system moves in also and look to then remain below normal for most of the Midwest into the middle of December.
The EU model trended drier overnight into the end of the week for Argentina but is otherwise little changed throughout the rest of the region as regular monsoonal rain continues to fall across northern and central Brazil through the end of the week this week before expanding back south by the early/middle part of next week. The model puts precipitation back into Argentina by the early part of next week too, but how this system develops will need monitoring.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-25-2025
Good morning.
Ag markets are mostly higher to start Tuesday trade, largely in a reversal of yesterday’s quietly lower trade; product markets are seeing the most activity of the group this morning with active spread pricing noted in the overnight hours, but the corn, beans and wheat all have small trading ranges and again have a holiday-like feel to them early today. News-wise, an exchange of missiles overnight between Russia and Ukraine could be pointed to as reason for the small reversal, especially in wheat, but we see this as more the news trying to fit the market and would assume price action today (and likely for the rest of the week) is more a product of limited money flow than anything else. With no trade Thursday and just a partial session on Friday, there’s a good chance a portion of the space will have called it quits for the week by the time the closing bell rings this afternoon, further exacerbating the situation. Corn futures to get Tuesday rolling are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton and soybean oil is down 60-70 points. Outside markets are mostly lower to start, crude oil futures are down $1.20-1.30/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 20 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is near unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 30 points.
USDA’s NASS released its final weekly crop progress update for the year yesterday afternoon. The report showed corn harvest progress as of Sunday at 96% complete; ND and MI still have the most to go at just 89% complete, while WI is at 90% and MI and NE are both at 92%. Winter wheat seeding was seen at 97% complete, while emergence ticked up to 87% and G/EX conditions were up 3% on the week to 48% complete.
Brazil’s CONAB late in the day yesterday showed soybean planting progress in the country at 78% complete as of Saturday, which is up 9% from last week and up 2.2% from the five-year average, but down from 83.3% seen through the same date last year. First crop corn planting was seen at 59.3% complete, which is up from 52.6% last week and is just marginally ahead of both last year and the five-year average.
According to shipping data seen by Reuters, two cargo vessels are headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans as of yesterday, which are to be loaded with the first Chinese soybean shipments since May. The data shows a third vessel was bound for a grain terminal on the Texas Gulf Coast, which is expected to be loaded with US sorghum bound for China.
As China continues to face a glut of soybeans, export data for October showed the country’s soybean oil imports in the month surged to 70,877 tons, most of which was bound for India. This brought cumulative Chinese soybean oil imports so far in 2025 to 329,000 tons, which is nearly triple the total for the entire 2024 calendar year.
Ukraine’s Economy Ministry said on Tuesday that the country’s farmers had sown 6.4 million hectares of winter crops as of today, which equates to about 98% of the intended area. The ministry has previously said farmers had intended to increase winter grain plantings this year to around 5.43 million hectares from 5.24 mil in 2025. Forecasters said earlier this month that weather conditions had been favorable for development to this point in the year.
Along similar lines, the EU’s MARS unit said on Monday that both dry conditions and too wet conditions in different parts of the bloc had delayed winter grain plantings. The group added that milder temperatures have also led to the inter hardening this year being “noticeably less advanced” than at the same time last year.
China’s commerce ministry said on Tuesday that the country had extended its investigation into beef imports by another two months, saying the investigation will now run through January 26th. This marks the second time the probe has been extended since it was implemented almost a year ago last December, with officials citing “the complexity of the case” as the reason for the latest extension. The move gives global suppliers a slightly longer time frame to prepare for potential trade restrictions as the domestic industry continues to deal with oversupply.
Bloomberg is reporting this morning that trade talks between the US and Canada have again come to a standstill as the two sides continue to struggle to find common ground. Sources familiar say they increasingly believe the negotiations will likely be pushed into the full review of the USMCA trade deal that is expected to take place next year. Similarly, but unrelated, sources also say the EU has rejected a US proposal to ease tech regulations in exchange for the US lowering duties on steel, seemingly keeping relations strained here also.
Following a rebound in the odds the Fed will make one more interest rate cut before the year ends over the last several days, economists and investors will have their focus squarely on today’s PPI and retail sales updates, as these data points will likely go a long way in determining where this cut indeed happens or not. Focus of late has centered on the jobs market, but comments from Fed Governor Williams last week that he saw the still elevated inflation reading as temporary.
Models have continued to struggle for consistency on the winter storm system that’s expected to impact most of the Midwest the end of this week and weekend, as the EU model is heavier on the snowfall through the central part of the region than the GFS is. There is good model agreement on the size and timing of the system, but exactly who receives rain vs snow and exactly what the accumulation ends up being in a specific are will be difficult to forecast. Temperatures will drop as this system moves in also and look to then remain below normal for most of the Midwest into the middle of December.
The EU model trended drier overnight into the end of the week for Argentina but is otherwise little changed throughout the rest of the region as regular monsoonal rain continues to fall across northern and central Brazil through the end of the week this week before expanding back south by the early/middle part of next week. The model puts precipitation back into Argentina by the early part of next week too, but how this system develops will need monitoring.
Have a great day.
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