Good morning.
We hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving with family and loved ones, and that the turkey and fixings were plentiful. Grain markets in Chicago will see a hard 8:30am central time opening this morning, with early calls mixed/higher for what will likely be a low volume/choppy trading session. Russia stepped up attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the holiday, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a statement that her and Donald Trump had a “very kind” phone call regarding trade, immigration and drugs and that there would be no trade war with the US; these news items should help grain prices early on Friday, before trend selling possibly emerges going into the weekend. Outside markets that have been trading overnight are mostly higher; crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points. Metals are also higher with gold futures up $20-25/oz.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, delayed a day this week due to yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, is expected to show corn sales for the week ending November 21st between 800k and 2.0 mil mt’s, soybean sales between 1.5 and 2.4 mil mt’s, and wheat sales between 200k and 600k mt’s. 2025/26 corn and soybean sales are both seen between 0 and 100k mt’s.
On Monday next week, the USDA will release its monthly Fats and Oils report for the month of October; the report is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 210.9 mil bu’s, which would be a new record. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.520 bil lbs. as of October 31. NOPA earlier reported crush in the month at 199.959 mil bu’s, and saw soybean oil stocks at 1.069 bil lbs.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report, usually out at the end of the week on Fridays, will also be out next week on Monday as it is delayed for the Thanksgiving holiday as well.
Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said they Brazilian soybean production in the coming season at 172.2 mmt’s, which would be up more than 10% from last year, and is also well above current estimates from both the USDA and Conab. Same group estimates total corn production at 132.7 mmt’s, up 3.5% from last year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in their latest weekly crop update, showed corn planting in the country at 41.3% complete, and soybean planting at 44.4% complete; there were no adjustments made to planted area or production estimates. The group also estimated wheat harvest at 38.7% complete, which is more than 7% ahead of last year.
According to French ag group FranceAgriMer, soft wheat planting in the country had reached 93% as of Monday, which compares to 81% last year and the five-year average of 91%. Conditions are off to a good start, with some 87% of the crop rated good or very good compared to 88% last year.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 23rd were seen at 893k tons, which was up roughly 14% from the week prior; corn shipments were up 25% at 462k tons, and soybean shipments were up 4% at 415k tons. STL barge rates were down 32 cents on the week to $15.92/short ton.
On the global war front, Russian President Putin on Thursday warned of potential strikes on ‘decision making centers’ in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with new ballistic missiles, while both Israel and Lebanon accused each other of violating the ceasefire deal that was agreed to earlier in the week.
Aside from very light/scattered precipitation in the northeast on Thursday, most of the US saw a dry day of weather for the Thanksgiving holiday. The forecast also saw minimal updates since Wednesday, with little/no precipitation expected anywhere besides parts of the Great Lakes region through the weekend and into the first part of next week.
By the end of next week, moisture looks to return to the Gulf and parts of TX/LA, but the rest of the country sees next to zero precipitation chances between now and next Saturday. Temperatures will stay cold in the east, as a western US ridge continues to funnel cooler air down from Canada at least through the end of next week.
Week-two temp outlooks show this pattern generally staying in place into mid-month with the west being warm and the east being cool, while precipitation maps in the same time frame remain mostly dry for all areas besides the far north into Canada and the far south into Mexico/the Gulf.
Heavy rains were seen in northeast Argentina/southwest Brazil over the last 24 hours, with totals here reaching upwards of 4″ in some places; a more general 0.5-1.5″ was seen for a lot of the growing regions in these areas, which was very beneficial for crops. Just light/scattered rains were seen throughout the rest of both of the two countries.
Through the weekend, light rains look to continue impacting most areas, but totals will be very hit or miss into the first part of next week; the best rains look to remain in central/east-central Brazil. Better rains fill in for the rest of Brazil by the middle of next week, while 10–15-day outlooks continue to show heavy rainfall potential in the south stretching into northern/eastern Brazil.
As a reminder, the grain markets close early today at 12:05pm central time. We will not be putting out our regular mid-day commentary but will release an afternoon wire shortly after the markets close this afternoon.
Have a great day!
Grain Comments: 11-29-2024
Good morning.
We hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving with family and loved ones, and that the turkey and fixings were plentiful. Grain markets in Chicago will see a hard 8:30am central time opening this morning, with early calls mixed/higher for what will likely be a low volume/choppy trading session. Russia stepped up attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the holiday, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a statement that her and Donald Trump had a “very kind” phone call regarding trade, immigration and drugs and that there would be no trade war with the US; these news items should help grain prices early on Friday, before trend selling possibly emerges going into the weekend. Outside markets that have been trading overnight are mostly higher; crude oil futures are up 40-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points. Metals are also higher with gold futures up $20-25/oz.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, delayed a day this week due to yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, is expected to show corn sales for the week ending November 21st between 800k and 2.0 mil mt’s, soybean sales between 1.5 and 2.4 mil mt’s, and wheat sales between 200k and 600k mt’s. 2025/26 corn and soybean sales are both seen between 0 and 100k mt’s.
On Monday next week, the USDA will release its monthly Fats and Oils report for the month of October; the report is expected to show soybean crush in the month at 210.9 mil bu’s, which would be a new record. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.520 bil lbs. as of October 31. NOPA earlier reported crush in the month at 199.959 mil bu’s, and saw soybean oil stocks at 1.069 bil lbs.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report, usually out at the end of the week on Fridays, will also be out next week on Monday as it is delayed for the Thanksgiving holiday as well.
Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult said they Brazilian soybean production in the coming season at 172.2 mmt’s, which would be up more than 10% from last year, and is also well above current estimates from both the USDA and Conab. Same group estimates total corn production at 132.7 mmt’s, up 3.5% from last year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in their latest weekly crop update, showed corn planting in the country at 41.3% complete, and soybean planting at 44.4% complete; there were no adjustments made to planted area or production estimates. The group also estimated wheat harvest at 38.7% complete, which is more than 7% ahead of last year.
According to French ag group FranceAgriMer, soft wheat planting in the country had reached 93% as of Monday, which compares to 81% last year and the five-year average of 91%. Conditions are off to a good start, with some 87% of the crop rated good or very good compared to 88% last year.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending November 23rd were seen at 893k tons, which was up roughly 14% from the week prior; corn shipments were up 25% at 462k tons, and soybean shipments were up 4% at 415k tons. STL barge rates were down 32 cents on the week to $15.92/short ton.
On the global war front, Russian President Putin on Thursday warned of potential strikes on ‘decision making centers’ in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv with new ballistic missiles, while both Israel and Lebanon accused each other of violating the ceasefire deal that was agreed to earlier in the week.
Aside from very light/scattered precipitation in the northeast on Thursday, most of the US saw a dry day of weather for the Thanksgiving holiday. The forecast also saw minimal updates since Wednesday, with little/no precipitation expected anywhere besides parts of the Great Lakes region through the weekend and into the first part of next week.
By the end of next week, moisture looks to return to the Gulf and parts of TX/LA, but the rest of the country sees next to zero precipitation chances between now and next Saturday. Temperatures will stay cold in the east, as a western US ridge continues to funnel cooler air down from Canada at least through the end of next week.
Week-two temp outlooks show this pattern generally staying in place into mid-month with the west being warm and the east being cool, while precipitation maps in the same time frame remain mostly dry for all areas besides the far north into Canada and the far south into Mexico/the Gulf.
Heavy rains were seen in northeast Argentina/southwest Brazil over the last 24 hours, with totals here reaching upwards of 4″ in some places; a more general 0.5-1.5″ was seen for a lot of the growing regions in these areas, which was very beneficial for crops. Just light/scattered rains were seen throughout the rest of both of the two countries.
Through the weekend, light rains look to continue impacting most areas, but totals will be very hit or miss into the first part of next week; the best rains look to remain in central/east-central Brazil. Better rains fill in for the rest of Brazil by the middle of next week, while 10–15-day outlooks continue to show heavy rainfall potential in the south stretching into northern/eastern Brazil.
As a reminder, the grain markets close early today at 12:05pm central time. We will not be putting out our regular mid-day commentary but will release an afternoon wire shortly after the markets close this afternoon.
Have a great day!
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