Good morning.
It would appear the Chicago space is back to “regularly scheduled programing” this morning following a Russian-based run-up in the grain markets on Tuesday. Upside follow-through in these markets has been pretty much non-existent in the overnight hours, which would lead us to believe that rumors seen yesterday regarding the move being one mostly of short covering are more likely to be true than not. As is the case most every December, holiday-reduced market participation will mean headlines have an even bigger chance at causing unwarranted volatility in prices and yesterday would appear to be a prime example of this. Otherwise, it’s more of the same elsewhere in the space this morning, with the bean market seeing small ranging trade on either side of unchanged and the product markets once again mixed in spread activity, though the sides are reversed from previous days. Corn futures to start mid-week are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points and the US$ index is down 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.
CFTC data for the week ending October 21st, released yesterday afternoon, showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 30,070 contracts of corn (-160,985), buyers of 35,719 contracts of soybeans (35,329) and buyers of 2,919 contracts of Chicago wheat (-108,825); in soy products, managed money traders were buyers of 27,352 contracts of soybean meal (-95,007) and sellers of 974 contracts of soybean oil (3,440). The next CFTC report, with data for the week ending October 28th, will be released on Friday.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week ending November 28th between 1.050-1.123 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 22.20-22.50 mil bbls. On average, the production figure would be down from last week, while stocks would be up.
Reuters is reporting this morning that lineup data on Tuesday showed at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at terminals on the US Gulf through the middle of the month, with a seventh having been loaded over the weekend and currently in route to China already. Data also shows two vessels loading with sorghum for China this week. The shipments, which come as negotiations between the two sides remain ongoing, are the first for any ag product since May.
StatsCanada is set to release quarterly crop production estimates tomorrow morning at 7:30am central time. Traders see the report showing Canadian wheat production at 38.49 MMTs, which would be up from a Sep estimate of 36.6 MMTs; canola production is seen at 21.25 MMTs vs 20 MMTs previously, while barely is seen at 8.9 MMTs vs 8.2 previously.
Touched on this yesterday briefly, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday that a bridge payment to farmers was expected to be announced next week, though details on timing and the amount of this payment still remain unclear. Rollins added that the move was intended to give farmers needed relief while broader trade and aid packages are being finalized.
There aren’t a lot of new/noteworthy details this morning coming out of the roughly five-hour meeting that took place at the Kremlin on Tuesday between Russian President Putin and members of his team and a US envoy of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The Russians described the meeting as productive and meaningful but added that the two sides remain rather far apart from reaching a consensus on ending the conflict. Both sides agreed that talks would continue, and it was noted that they also discussed expanding economic cooperation between the US and Russia.
In non-China related trade news, President Trump said he had a “very productive” phone call with Brazilian President Lula this week, in which the two discussed trade, cooperation against organized crime, sanctions on Brazilian officials and tariffs, among other issues. Brazilian officials also confirmed the call and added that Brazil desired to continue advancing tariff negotiations on additional products, as well as stressing the need for deeper joint cooperation between the two on combating organized crime.
The dollar index is under pressure this morning based largely on comments out of Trump where he referred to Kevin Hassett as a “potential” next Fed Chair. The expected shift toward looser monetary policy that would come with Hassett has driven selling across most treasury markets and has led investors to reposition a bit for a more dovish outlook than has been seen under Powell.
Weather models for the Midwest this morning are little changed in the immediate term, with limited moisture seen through the central part of the region the rest of the week and into the weekend due to the ongoing presence of high pressure in the Pacific. To the north and around the Great Lakes, low pressure over the Hudson Bay keeps systems active around this area and through the northern part of the US along the border with Canada. And to the south, a cut-off low will provide good precipitation along the Gulf through the end of the week, but then flow will also likely turn this region drier beyond this week also.
Extended maps into the back half of the month this morning are also little changed, and continue to generally show a warm/dry outlook for the southern third of the US from CA to the Carolinas while the northern third of the country stays cool and wet and areas in the middle see a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve beat the horse to death this week, but Midwest weather into the end of December is almost entirely a result of what happens with the high-pressure ridge currently in the Pacific.
Nothing new again in the pattern for South America this morning in the short term, as models continue to be in good agreement on regular monsoonal rainfall continuing for the northern two/thirds of Brazil, while areas to the south remain drier for another several days before generally light precipitation is still expected to show back up the middle of next week. Like we mentioned yesterday, it’s the development of this moisture that is seen as the one real talking point today in the South American forecast, as farmers here are beginning to lament dry conditions seen over the past 4-6 weeks.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-03-2025
Good morning.
It would appear the Chicago space is back to “regularly scheduled programing” this morning following a Russian-based run-up in the grain markets on Tuesday. Upside follow-through in these markets has been pretty much non-existent in the overnight hours, which would lead us to believe that rumors seen yesterday regarding the move being one mostly of short covering are more likely to be true than not. As is the case most every December, holiday-reduced market participation will mean headlines have an even bigger chance at causing unwarranted volatility in prices and yesterday would appear to be a prime example of this. Otherwise, it’s more of the same elsewhere in the space this morning, with the bean market seeing small ranging trade on either side of unchanged and the product markets once again mixed in spread activity, though the sides are reversed from previous days. Corn futures to start mid-week are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 80 points and the US$ index is down 40-50 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.
CFTC data for the week ending October 21st, released yesterday afternoon, showed managed money traders in the week were buyers of 30,070 contracts of corn (-160,985), buyers of 35,719 contracts of soybeans (35,329) and buyers of 2,919 contracts of Chicago wheat (-108,825); in soy products, managed money traders were buyers of 27,352 contracts of soybean meal (-95,007) and sellers of 974 contracts of soybean oil (3,440). The next CFTC report, with data for the week ending October 28th, will be released on Friday.
This morning’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US during the week ending November 28th between 1.050-1.123 mil bbls, while stocks for the week are seen between 22.20-22.50 mil bbls. On average, the production figure would be down from last week, while stocks would be up.
Reuters is reporting this morning that lineup data on Tuesday showed at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at terminals on the US Gulf through the middle of the month, with a seventh having been loaded over the weekend and currently in route to China already. Data also shows two vessels loading with sorghum for China this week. The shipments, which come as negotiations between the two sides remain ongoing, are the first for any ag product since May.
StatsCanada is set to release quarterly crop production estimates tomorrow morning at 7:30am central time. Traders see the report showing Canadian wheat production at 38.49 MMTs, which would be up from a Sep estimate of 36.6 MMTs; canola production is seen at 21.25 MMTs vs 20 MMTs previously, while barely is seen at 8.9 MMTs vs 8.2 previously.
Touched on this yesterday briefly, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said during a cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday that a bridge payment to farmers was expected to be announced next week, though details on timing and the amount of this payment still remain unclear. Rollins added that the move was intended to give farmers needed relief while broader trade and aid packages are being finalized.
There aren’t a lot of new/noteworthy details this morning coming out of the roughly five-hour meeting that took place at the Kremlin on Tuesday between Russian President Putin and members of his team and a US envoy of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The Russians described the meeting as productive and meaningful but added that the two sides remain rather far apart from reaching a consensus on ending the conflict. Both sides agreed that talks would continue, and it was noted that they also discussed expanding economic cooperation between the US and Russia.
In non-China related trade news, President Trump said he had a “very productive” phone call with Brazilian President Lula this week, in which the two discussed trade, cooperation against organized crime, sanctions on Brazilian officials and tariffs, among other issues. Brazilian officials also confirmed the call and added that Brazil desired to continue advancing tariff negotiations on additional products, as well as stressing the need for deeper joint cooperation between the two on combating organized crime.
The dollar index is under pressure this morning based largely on comments out of Trump where he referred to Kevin Hassett as a “potential” next Fed Chair. The expected shift toward looser monetary policy that would come with Hassett has driven selling across most treasury markets and has led investors to reposition a bit for a more dovish outlook than has been seen under Powell.
Weather models for the Midwest this morning are little changed in the immediate term, with limited moisture seen through the central part of the region the rest of the week and into the weekend due to the ongoing presence of high pressure in the Pacific. To the north and around the Great Lakes, low pressure over the Hudson Bay keeps systems active around this area and through the northern part of the US along the border with Canada. And to the south, a cut-off low will provide good precipitation along the Gulf through the end of the week, but then flow will also likely turn this region drier beyond this week also.
Extended maps into the back half of the month this morning are also little changed, and continue to generally show a warm/dry outlook for the southern third of the US from CA to the Carolinas while the northern third of the country stays cool and wet and areas in the middle see a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve beat the horse to death this week, but Midwest weather into the end of December is almost entirely a result of what happens with the high-pressure ridge currently in the Pacific.
Nothing new again in the pattern for South America this morning in the short term, as models continue to be in good agreement on regular monsoonal rainfall continuing for the northern two/thirds of Brazil, while areas to the south remain drier for another several days before generally light precipitation is still expected to show back up the middle of next week. Like we mentioned yesterday, it’s the development of this moisture that is seen as the one real talking point today in the South American forecast, as farmers here are beginning to lament dry conditions seen over the past 4-6 weeks.
Have a great day.
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