Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures have spent the majority of the overnight session trading mostly in the green to get Thursday started at the CBOT, as news and overall attention paid to the market continue to be slow. There’s just little news this morning that isn’t macro related and like we’ve talked about since Tuesday’s report, we’re not sure how optimistic we are that this changes at any time real soon. The big question for traders into the end of the year, aside from something unforeseen happening with any of the ongoing topics of China, Ukraine, South America, or biofuels, is whether chart-based selling pressure remains in place or if the lack of volume into the holidays leads to a potentially several week pause until after the first of the year. The bulls need fed constantly and a 12 MMT purchase program of US soybeans by the Chinese is now largely old news. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher also. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending November 13th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 800k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 600k-1.4 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-600k MTs.
The CFTC released another round of catch-up commitment of traders data on Wednesday, with numbers for the week ending November 10th; the report showed funds in the week were buyers of another 31,994 contracts of corn (-39,523), buyers of 15,761 contracts of soybeans (+194,443) and buyers of 11,852 contracts of Chicago wheat (-58,761). In the soy products, funds bought 16,987 contracts of meal (+30,026) and sold 2,866 contracts of soybean oil (-24,124). The next report will be out tomorrow afternoon.
USDA data released yesterday afternoon showed US soybean crush in the month of October at 237 mil bu, which was up 16% from the September figure and up 10% from October of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month totaled 1.781 bil lbs., up 12% from last year. Also out was monthly corn grind data, which showed corn used for ethanol in October at 476.4 mil bu; this was up 9% from September and up 3% from the same month last year. Total corn usage at 524 mil bu was also up 9% from September but up just 2% from last year.
Brazil’s CONAB released new monthly crop data this morning for December that showed 2025/26 soybean production in the country down slightly from the month prior at 177.1 MMTs. Total corn production was raised fractionally to 138.9 MMTs, while safrinha came in unchanged from last month at 110.5 MMTs.
Two traders familiar with the situation said on Thursday that China’s Sinograin sold around 397k MTs of the 512,500 MTs that were auctioned from reserves. The sources said the average price on the supplies from the 2022/2023 crop years were around $560/MT, with delivery scheduled for the Dec-March timeframe.
Several refinery operators and marketers on Wednesday argued to the US EPA that they met the definition of a small refinery but that they weren’t exempted from renewable fuel obligations because the agency incorrectly used data from the 2023 calendar year instead of 2024. The group further argued that the agency’s regulations also don’t require a refinery to meet the “small” definition for both the year of the requested exemption and the prior year, which they argue was the basis for why their exemptions were denied for 2024.
Folks across the upper and central parts of the Midwest look set to see another round of winter weather through the day today and into the end of the week, as a pair of system look to impact a fairly narrow band from central SD through IA and into IL/IN. Another system is then seen impacting the same area Saturday into Sunday, with total snowfall accumulation out of the two seen in a range of 3-5″ generally speaking from this morning’s EU model run. Once this weekend system exits, models then see a drier pattern emerging through most of the week next week, with temperatures seen rising back to well above normal by the following weekend.
For South America, models are in better agreement on precipitation for central and northern Argentina into the first half of next week this morning, while there continues to be little change seen for the forecast in Brazil into the end of next week. Heavy precipitation in the country’s south will help to recharge soil moisture here in some areas, but will also lead to localized flooding issues if the forecast verifies into the end of the month due to the dry/crusty soils seen in some places that won’t allow the heavy moisture to soak into the ground before running off.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-11-2025
Good morning.
Corn and soybean futures have spent the majority of the overnight session trading mostly in the green to get Thursday started at the CBOT, as news and overall attention paid to the market continue to be slow. There’s just little news this morning that isn’t macro related and like we’ve talked about since Tuesday’s report, we’re not sure how optimistic we are that this changes at any time real soon. The big question for traders into the end of the year, aside from something unforeseen happening with any of the ongoing topics of China, Ukraine, South America, or biofuels, is whether chart-based selling pressure remains in place or if the lack of volume into the holidays leads to a potentially several week pause until after the first of the year. The bulls need fed constantly and a 12 MMT purchase program of US soybeans by the Chinese is now largely old news. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher also. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly lower, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 20 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending November 13th, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 800k-2.0 mil MTs, soybean sales between 600k-1.4 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-600k MTs.
The CFTC released another round of catch-up commitment of traders data on Wednesday, with numbers for the week ending November 10th; the report showed funds in the week were buyers of another 31,994 contracts of corn (-39,523), buyers of 15,761 contracts of soybeans (+194,443) and buyers of 11,852 contracts of Chicago wheat (-58,761). In the soy products, funds bought 16,987 contracts of meal (+30,026) and sold 2,866 contracts of soybean oil (-24,124). The next report will be out tomorrow afternoon.
USDA data released yesterday afternoon showed US soybean crush in the month of October at 237 mil bu, which was up 16% from the September figure and up 10% from October of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month totaled 1.781 bil lbs., up 12% from last year. Also out was monthly corn grind data, which showed corn used for ethanol in October at 476.4 mil bu; this was up 9% from September and up 3% from the same month last year. Total corn usage at 524 mil bu was also up 9% from September but up just 2% from last year.
Brazil’s CONAB released new monthly crop data this morning for December that showed 2025/26 soybean production in the country down slightly from the month prior at 177.1 MMTs. Total corn production was raised fractionally to 138.9 MMTs, while safrinha came in unchanged from last month at 110.5 MMTs.
Two traders familiar with the situation said on Thursday that China’s Sinograin sold around 397k MTs of the 512,500 MTs that were auctioned from reserves. The sources said the average price on the supplies from the 2022/2023 crop years were around $560/MT, with delivery scheduled for the Dec-March timeframe.
Several refinery operators and marketers on Wednesday argued to the US EPA that they met the definition of a small refinery but that they weren’t exempted from renewable fuel obligations because the agency incorrectly used data from the 2023 calendar year instead of 2024. The group further argued that the agency’s regulations also don’t require a refinery to meet the “small” definition for both the year of the requested exemption and the prior year, which they argue was the basis for why their exemptions were denied for 2024.
Folks across the upper and central parts of the Midwest look set to see another round of winter weather through the day today and into the end of the week, as a pair of system look to impact a fairly narrow band from central SD through IA and into IL/IN. Another system is then seen impacting the same area Saturday into Sunday, with total snowfall accumulation out of the two seen in a range of 3-5″ generally speaking from this morning’s EU model run. Once this weekend system exits, models then see a drier pattern emerging through most of the week next week, with temperatures seen rising back to well above normal by the following weekend.
For South America, models are in better agreement on precipitation for central and northern Argentina into the first half of next week this morning, while there continues to be little change seen for the forecast in Brazil into the end of next week. Heavy precipitation in the country’s south will help to recharge soil moisture here in some areas, but will also lead to localized flooding issues if the forecast verifies into the end of the month due to the dry/crusty soils seen in some places that won’t allow the heavy moisture to soak into the ground before running off.
Have a great day.
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