Good morning.
Soybeans and meal are seeing some turn-around-Tuesday price action to get the day started this morning, while the corn and wheat markets are trading either side of unchanged as volume continues to be light and headlines remain scarce. Corn futures to start the morning are unchanged to a half cent lower, soybean futures are 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged to a penny higher.
Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA was delayed and released at 4pm yesterday evening. The report showed average daily production in the week ending December 19th at 1.095 mil bbls/day, which was down 3.2% from the week prior and down 1.1% from the same week last year. Stocks in the week were seen at 22.528 mil bbls, which was up 0.8% on the week but down 2.4% from last year. Of note, this was a new five-week low on the production side and a new eight-week high on the stocks side.
China’s state news agency on Tuesday, following an annual two-day Central Rural Work Conference, reported that China would be making efforts to stabilize grain and edible oil production, as well as improve grain varieties and enhance quality. The headlines aren’t necessarily market-moving but further illustrate Beijing’s ongoing efforts to reduce dependency on global imports and also to boost the country’s domestic farming sector.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but one of the bigger headlines making the rounds this week is news out of South America some of the world’s largest soy traders like ADM, Cargill, and Bunge, among others, would be pulling out of the soy moratorium in Brazil that has been in place for nearly 20 years. The move comes as new legislature in Mato Grosso state would see the tax benefits associated with being part of the program eliminated, which totaled somewhere in the ballpark of $840 million between 2019 and 2024.
The pact, originally adopted in 2006, was intended to slow deforestation in the Amazon, and barred companies from buying soy that had been grown on lands that had been deforested after 2008. However, farmer groups and other local state governments along with Mato Grosso argue that the agreement restricts fair market access and hurts farmers, while also restricting overall economic development at the state level. Researchers estimate than an area of the Rain Forrest roughly the size of Ireland would’ve been lost in the last 20 years were the pact not in place.
The back-and-forth on the situation between Russia and Ukraine continued Monday, as what seemed to be progress made over the weekend between the US and Ukraine gave way to further threats of escalation to start the week as Russian President Putin informed Trump that his negotiating stance may be changing due to a drone on attack on one of his personal residencies. Russia vowed retaliation and said targets had already been chosen, but it is unclear this morning what those attacks might look like or when they might occur.
Little new on the weather front this morning for the Midwest this week, though longer-term forecasts are beginning to see a wetter shift across a lot of the country into the middle part of January. The GFS remains wetter than the EU especially in areas generally east of the Mississippi, but the EU, like yesterday, is still showing wetter biases through the northwest and parts of southwest Canada. The temperature outlook is little changed though also, as there is still good model agreement on most of the US staying on the warmer side of normal now into January 14th.
Forecast focus in South America remains centered on Argentina this morning, as dryness through next week and into the first half of January is still the number one concern here while Brazil still sees next to nothing in the way of threats in the same period. The GFS is wetter than the EU model for southern and south-central Argentina the middle of next week, but our confidence is not great in either model solution beyond the next few days due to notable run-to-run differences.
Like we mentioned previously, though heat will also be present, current moisture levels will limit stress in the near term but will need to be replenished again before the end of the growing season should the forecast verify.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 12-30-2025
Good morning.
Soybeans and meal are seeing some turn-around-Tuesday price action to get the day started this morning, while the corn and wheat markets are trading either side of unchanged as volume continues to be light and headlines remain scarce. Corn futures to start the morning are unchanged to a half cent lower, soybean futures are 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is unchanged to a penny higher.
Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA was delayed and released at 4pm yesterday evening. The report showed average daily production in the week ending December 19th at 1.095 mil bbls/day, which was down 3.2% from the week prior and down 1.1% from the same week last year. Stocks in the week were seen at 22.528 mil bbls, which was up 0.8% on the week but down 2.4% from last year. Of note, this was a new five-week low on the production side and a new eight-week high on the stocks side.
China’s state news agency on Tuesday, following an annual two-day Central Rural Work Conference, reported that China would be making efforts to stabilize grain and edible oil production, as well as improve grain varieties and enhance quality. The headlines aren’t necessarily market-moving but further illustrate Beijing’s ongoing efforts to reduce dependency on global imports and also to boost the country’s domestic farming sector.
Touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but one of the bigger headlines making the rounds this week is news out of South America some of the world’s largest soy traders like ADM, Cargill, and Bunge, among others, would be pulling out of the soy moratorium in Brazil that has been in place for nearly 20 years. The move comes as new legislature in Mato Grosso state would see the tax benefits associated with being part of the program eliminated, which totaled somewhere in the ballpark of $840 million between 2019 and 2024.
The pact, originally adopted in 2006, was intended to slow deforestation in the Amazon, and barred companies from buying soy that had been grown on lands that had been deforested after 2008. However, farmer groups and other local state governments along with Mato Grosso argue that the agreement restricts fair market access and hurts farmers, while also restricting overall economic development at the state level. Researchers estimate than an area of the Rain Forrest roughly the size of Ireland would’ve been lost in the last 20 years were the pact not in place.
The back-and-forth on the situation between Russia and Ukraine continued Monday, as what seemed to be progress made over the weekend between the US and Ukraine gave way to further threats of escalation to start the week as Russian President Putin informed Trump that his negotiating stance may be changing due to a drone on attack on one of his personal residencies. Russia vowed retaliation and said targets had already been chosen, but it is unclear this morning what those attacks might look like or when they might occur.
Little new on the weather front this morning for the Midwest this week, though longer-term forecasts are beginning to see a wetter shift across a lot of the country into the middle part of January. The GFS remains wetter than the EU especially in areas generally east of the Mississippi, but the EU, like yesterday, is still showing wetter biases through the northwest and parts of southwest Canada. The temperature outlook is little changed though also, as there is still good model agreement on most of the US staying on the warmer side of normal now into January 14th.
Forecast focus in South America remains centered on Argentina this morning, as dryness through next week and into the first half of January is still the number one concern here while Brazil still sees next to nothing in the way of threats in the same period. The GFS is wetter than the EU model for southern and south-central Argentina the middle of next week, but our confidence is not great in either model solution beyond the next few days due to notable run-to-run differences.
Like we mentioned previously, though heat will also be present, current moisture levels will limit stress in the near term but will need to be replenished again before the end of the growing season should the forecast verify.
Have a great day.
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