Grain Comments: 07.18.23

Russian attacks on Ukraine ports elevated futures overnight with corn 8-10 cents higher, soybeans up 10-12 cents, and wheat gaining 6-8 cents. The US dollar and equities were weak while the energies were firm.

 

 

Today’s Reports: Retail sales, Industrial Production

 

  • June soy crush a 9-month low
  • Ukraine/Russian fighting escalates
  • Argentina working on a “new” peso/dollar exchange program

 

 

As expected, the condition of the US corn and soybean crops improved following recent rainfall across much of the United States. The US corn crop is now rated 57% Good/Excellent, up 2% from last week. The Poor/Very Poor rating declined 1 point to 13% of the crop. A reported 7% of the corn crop is ion the dough stage compared to the average 6% for this date. The soybean crop is now rated 55% G/E, a large 4% increase from the week before. The amount of the crop in the P/VP category decreased 2% on the week to just 13%. Pods have set on 20% of the soybeans crop, ahead of the 17% average. These improvements will likely reduce the amount of risk premium in the market, even if just for a short period. The big surprise ion the report came from the spring wheat crop where the rating improved 4 points on the week when a decline was expected. This put the spring wheat crop rating at 51% G/E. The P/VP rated spring wheat crop declined to 14% from the week before. The spring crop is also 86% headed. Winter wheat harvest reached 56% complete compared to the average 69% for this date. Overnight attention turned to the Black Sea where Russia launched an attack on the port of Odessa. No damage was reported, but it shows Russia may cause further stress on Ukraine’s infrastructure.

 

Highlights

* No ships reported in Ukraine ports

* Rains raise global water levels

* Weaker US dollar narrows global price spreads

* US dollar weakness also impacts buying power

* Global commodity values firming

* US weather outlooks improve

* China an active import buyer this week

* Brazil raises 23/24 crop estimates

* Chinese pork production +3.2% on the year

* White House rejects biofuel blend exemptions

 

Corn

* Drought impacts Chinese yield potential

* Chinese imports est 23 mmt by attaché

* Chinee officials have imports at 17 mmt

* Chinese domestic corn $9.75/bu

* Brazil corn rallies on slow farmer selling

 

Soybeans

* Brazil harvest in later stages

* Harvest pressure lifting from futures

* China predicts 23/24 imports at 94.2 mmt

* USDA has Chinese imports at 99 mmt

* US yield trimmed to 51 bpa by several analysts

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