Good morning.
Markets are lower to start wrapping up the week, with selling largely the result of disappointment related to yesterday’s China meeting, as there was no ag purchase commitments announced and the status quo between the world’s two largest economies seems to be mostly unchanged. Traders will still be watching for a White House fact sheet regarding the meetings to be released sometime over the weekend or early next week, but at least for now, relative disappointment is combining with some measure of Friday farmer hedge selling to drive prices lower into the weekend. Beyond China, traders will also have the USDA’s quarterly stocks update to contend with next week, which looks to be the next fundamental market-maker.
Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 11-12 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 15-17 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 16-19 cents lower.
The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs update on Thursday showed the US hog herd as of September 1 at 74.302 million head, which was down 1.5% from last year; market hogs at 68.427 million head were down 1.5% on the year as well, while hogs kept for breeding were down 1% at 5.875 million head.
USDA also released monthly livestock slaughter data on Thursday, which showed total US red meat production in the month of August at 4.095 billion lbs., down 5% from the July figure and down 1% from August last year. Beef production was seen at 1.982 bil lbs., down 2% from last year and pork production was seen at 2.102 bil lbs., down a little less than 1% from last year.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting progress at 17% complete, which is well ahead of both last year and average. Wheat conditions on the week were steady at 95% normal/excellent.
Private Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Patria AgroNegocios said this week that they see soybean production in the country down a little more than 3% from the previous season at just 173.8 MTMs. The group cited a potential decline in yields as the result of El Niño as reason for the smaller estimate.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 19th at 377k tons, which was down 14% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 206k tons were down 16% on the week and soybean shipments at 152k tons were down 10% on the week. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $33.32/short ton, up 68 cents from the week prior.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week that he had been in contact with refiners to gauge potential interest in voluntarily limiting diesel exports, though no restrictions or agreements have been announced to this point. The headline comes following an earlier denial by White House officials this week that such plans were in the works.
Weekend weather looks to be a tale of two parts across the Corn Belt, with the eastern half of the region continuing to see favorable harvest weather and drier conditions, while the west contends with more unwanted rainfall through parts of NE and IA and then north into MN. Rains are then seen increasing through next week through generally the same regions, as the remnants of Hurricane Lola in the Pacific are expected to work through the mid-section of the country by next Wednesday.
Temperatures across the region look to gradually warm into the first part of next week but are otherwise expected to be similar to those seen this week, with most of the Midwest seeing seasonally average daytime highs, while heat stays pushed to the south and west.
Have a great day.
Morning Comments: 09-25-2026
Good morning.
Markets are lower to start wrapping up the week, with selling largely the result of disappointment related to yesterday’s China meeting, as there was no ag purchase commitments announced and the status quo between the world’s two largest economies seems to be mostly unchanged. Traders will still be watching for a White House fact sheet regarding the meetings to be released sometime over the weekend or early next week, but at least for now, relative disappointment is combining with some measure of Friday farmer hedge selling to drive prices lower into the weekend. Beyond China, traders will also have the USDA’s quarterly stocks update to contend with next week, which looks to be the next fundamental market-maker.
Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 11-12 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 15-17 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 16-19 cents lower.
The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs update on Thursday showed the US hog herd as of September 1 at 74.302 million head, which was down 1.5% from last year; market hogs at 68.427 million head were down 1.5% on the year as well, while hogs kept for breeding were down 1% at 5.875 million head.
USDA also released monthly livestock slaughter data on Thursday, which showed total US red meat production in the month of August at 4.095 billion lbs., down 5% from the July figure and down 1% from August last year. Beef production was seen at 1.982 bil lbs., down 2% from last year and pork production was seen at 2.102 bil lbs., down a little less than 1% from last year.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn planting progress at 17% complete, which is well ahead of both last year and average. Wheat conditions on the week were steady at 95% normal/excellent.
Private Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Patria AgroNegocios said this week that they see soybean production in the country down a little more than 3% from the previous season at just 173.8 MTMs. The group cited a potential decline in yields as the result of El Niño as reason for the smaller estimate.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending September 19th at 377k tons, which was down 14% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 206k tons were down 16% on the week and soybean shipments at 152k tons were down 10% on the week. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $33.32/short ton, up 68 cents from the week prior.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week that he had been in contact with refiners to gauge potential interest in voluntarily limiting diesel exports, though no restrictions or agreements have been announced to this point. The headline comes following an earlier denial by White House officials this week that such plans were in the works.
Weekend weather looks to be a tale of two parts across the Corn Belt, with the eastern half of the region continuing to see favorable harvest weather and drier conditions, while the west contends with more unwanted rainfall through parts of NE and IA and then north into MN. Rains are then seen increasing through next week through generally the same regions, as the remnants of Hurricane Lola in the Pacific are expected to work through the mid-section of the country by next Wednesday.
Temperatures across the region look to gradually warm into the first part of next week but are otherwise expected to be similar to those seen this week, with most of the Midwest seeing seasonally average daytime highs, while heat stays pushed to the south and west.
Have a great day.
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