Good morning.
Overnight ag trade has been choppy/mixed at mid-week, with new news again largely lacking for the most part and pre-report positioning ahead of Friday still the main feature. Monday’s crop progress update has been all the talk this week and has reintroduced ideas that yields could come down more than some are looking for, but the numbers aren’t out yet and it’s not a forgone conclusion that such an outcome is seen to end the week. Making a habit of trying to outguess USDA reports is a fool’s errand, which is why we often preach risk management ahead of these events and have continued to focus more on other underlying fundamentals that won’t change regardless of what production numbers are seen on Friday. There are still significant export restrictions in the Black Sea and there’s still a record El Niño event going on that has increased risks for southern hemisphere production, and neither of these things will change on Friday.
Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 3-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents lower.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending October 2nd between 990k-1.075 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.365-24.60 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be up from last week.
Monthly trade data from Brazil shows the country exported 7.359 MMTs of soybeans during the month of September, along with 5.212 MMTs of corn and 2.560 MMTs of soybean meal; the soybean figure was similar to last year, while corn shipments in the month were down some 31% and meal shipments were up 19%. Private export body Anec says they see October soybean exports at 6.2 MMTs, while corn is seen at 5.34 MMTs and meal is seen at 2.09 MMTs.
CONAB pegged Brazilian soybean planting pace at 9% complete this week, while first crop corn planting was estimated at 31% complete and wheat harvest was estimated at 36% complete. All three figures are ahead of both last year and their recent five-year averages.
Industry executives said at the annual Malaysian Palm Oil Forum this week that the record El Niño weather pattern was likely to trim global palm production in the coming years by upwards of 2 million metric tons, and that that this figure could be on the conservative side. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier weather to leading producers Indonesia and Malaysia in southeast Asia, where domestic demand is forecast to possibly outpace export demand for the first time.
In a posted announcement on Tuesday, the USDA said it was planning to invest upwards of $180 million as part of an effort to map the genetic makeup of its national seed bank collections and reduce US dependency on foreign countries for resources it deems vital to national security. The initiative aims to protect genetic resources from plants that American farmers rely on while also accelerating new innovation in agriculture. US seed industry groups cheered the announcement, saying that publicly funded research into improving plant genetics had been in decline for decades.
The tropical disturbance in the Gulf talked about this week has strengthened into a tropical storm overnight, with the National Hurricane Center warning that Isaias could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it’s expected to make landfall Friday night/Saturday morning. This morning’s forecast cone from the center has the storm’s remnants possibly reaching parts of IL and IN by Sunday, which will need monitoring as the storm progresses the rest of the week.
This morning’s forecasts have also shifted a bit for next week, with the larger low-pressure system talked about the last few days that was supposed to work out of the southwest by the middle/back half of next week now seen losing momentum by the time it hits the mid-section of the country, keeping the northwestern part of the Corn Belt drier. This shift didn’t show up in the GFS model’s overnight run, which is keeping our confidence in any forecast beyond the next couple of days low.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-07-2026
Good morning.
Overnight ag trade has been choppy/mixed at mid-week, with new news again largely lacking for the most part and pre-report positioning ahead of Friday still the main feature. Monday’s crop progress update has been all the talk this week and has reintroduced ideas that yields could come down more than some are looking for, but the numbers aren’t out yet and it’s not a forgone conclusion that such an outcome is seen to end the week. Making a habit of trying to outguess USDA reports is a fool’s errand, which is why we often preach risk management ahead of these events and have continued to focus more on other underlying fundamentals that won’t change regardless of what production numbers are seen on Friday. There are still significant export restrictions in the Black Sea and there’s still a record El Niño event going on that has increased risks for southern hemisphere production, and neither of these things will change on Friday.
Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 3-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 6-7 cents lower.
This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending October 2nd between 990k-1.075 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.365-24.60 mil bbls; on average, both figures would be up from last week.
Monthly trade data from Brazil shows the country exported 7.359 MMTs of soybeans during the month of September, along with 5.212 MMTs of corn and 2.560 MMTs of soybean meal; the soybean figure was similar to last year, while corn shipments in the month were down some 31% and meal shipments were up 19%. Private export body Anec says they see October soybean exports at 6.2 MMTs, while corn is seen at 5.34 MMTs and meal is seen at 2.09 MMTs.
CONAB pegged Brazilian soybean planting pace at 9% complete this week, while first crop corn planting was estimated at 31% complete and wheat harvest was estimated at 36% complete. All three figures are ahead of both last year and their recent five-year averages.
Industry executives said at the annual Malaysian Palm Oil Forum this week that the record El Niño weather pattern was likely to trim global palm production in the coming years by upwards of 2 million metric tons, and that that this figure could be on the conservative side. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier weather to leading producers Indonesia and Malaysia in southeast Asia, where domestic demand is forecast to possibly outpace export demand for the first time.
In a posted announcement on Tuesday, the USDA said it was planning to invest upwards of $180 million as part of an effort to map the genetic makeup of its national seed bank collections and reduce US dependency on foreign countries for resources it deems vital to national security. The initiative aims to protect genetic resources from plants that American farmers rely on while also accelerating new innovation in agriculture. US seed industry groups cheered the announcement, saying that publicly funded research into improving plant genetics had been in decline for decades.
The tropical disturbance in the Gulf talked about this week has strengthened into a tropical storm overnight, with the National Hurricane Center warning that Isaias could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it’s expected to make landfall Friday night/Saturday morning. This morning’s forecast cone from the center has the storm’s remnants possibly reaching parts of IL and IN by Sunday, which will need monitoring as the storm progresses the rest of the week.
This morning’s forecasts have also shifted a bit for next week, with the larger low-pressure system talked about the last few days that was supposed to work out of the southwest by the middle/back half of next week now seen losing momentum by the time it hits the mid-section of the country, keeping the northwestern part of the Corn Belt drier. This shift didn’t show up in the GFS model’s overnight run, which is keeping our confidence in any forecast beyond the next couple of days low.
Have a great day.
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