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Grain Comments: 12/15/2022

Good Morning:

Soybeans are consolidating along with the rest of the complex but remain within shouting distance recent highs, unlike the feed grains, with bullish potential from usage data throughout this morning as well.

Today’s November NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 181.5 million bushels, down from 154.5 mbu in October but above 179.5 mbu last November, and a record for the month. Estimates range from 180.0-183.1 mbu.

Snow remains in the northern belt today and tomorrow after heavy rains east over the past 24 hours; conditions look drier past that with wetter conditions north/northwest and drier weather south/southeast. Temps run cold thru Dec.

Argentina remains dry save for far western rain chances over the next 7-10 days; BRZ rains held north yesterday with a stark split going forward—wet north, dry south. Some dryness concerns will develop in southern areas.

Once again trade will be monitoring this morning’s export sales data to see if a change from the recent trend starts to place. For the past several weeks the United States has seen high demand on soybeans and lower exports of grains. This week is not expected to be any different given recent flash sales to soybeans. These sales are the primary reason the USDA did not lower its soybean export forecast for the year of 2.045 billion bu. This is expected to be one of the last big weeks for soybean sales though as the Brazilian harvest is starting to get underway and before long so will exports. China is the main buyer that will shift its import attention, and this is where the bulk of US export demand has been coming from. This is already raising doubts over the US to meet the current export forecast as the year progresses, especially with a much larger Brazilian crop to compete with. Argentine exports will also increase as even with drought losses the crop is still expected to be larger than last year. The USDA did reduce corn exports by 75 million bu to a total of 2.075 billion bu, but this is likely to see further reductions as the marketing year progresses as well.

Have a great day!


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