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Grain Comments: 12/13/2022

Soybeans and wheat are leading moderate gains this morning but corn values are sneakily working on a fifth straight up day after posting 3+ month lows last week; corn has no real fundamental incentive to rally at these price levels other than to follow the rest of the complex, at least in the next month until the USDA formalizes the 2022 U.S. production side.

The radar screen is active this morning with snow and mixed precip in the northern Plains and NW belt and rains in the SE Plains and central/southern belt; coverage has been solid in the WCB so far and will spread throughout the belt today and linger in the north through Friday. All but the far southern Plains and SW belt will see precip from this one. Extended maps are split wet north/northwest but mostly dry center/southeast, with temperature forecasts still safely set below-normal right up through the holidays.

Argentine rains were mostly confined to fringe areas over the past 24 hours and remain so going forward, with dry forecasts settling back in along with warmer temps in the north. Brazil saw some good rains in the east yesterday and chances look strong for all but far southern crop areas in the next ten days

Now that the December WASDE report is behind us, trade is starting to look forward to the January release. This will contain the final production data for old crop months and make usage much more of a factor in price discovery moving forward. Trade is still surprised at the lack of changes that took place to the balance sheets last Friday. While US corn exports were cut by 75 million bu trade believes we could see another reduction of at least that much in January and future reports as demand is showing no sign of improving on the global side. US soybean exports are more questionable moving forward as we have had a jump in demand in recent weeks. This may just be the final push from buyers ahead of the next harvest in Brazil which will be getting underway in days. This will provide the market with much more affordable soybeans than the US. The stocks to use on soybeans remains at just 5% which is a supportive factor even if we do not see added sales. In fact, the case can be made we do not want extra sales until our reserves build. This uncertainty in the market will keep trade volatile for the next several weeks, possibly through the remainder of the marketing year.

Have a great day!

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