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Grain Comments: 03-27-23

The focus of this week’s trade will be getting positions in place ahead of Friday’s much anticipated USDA reports. These are the quarterly stocks data as of March 1st and the prospective plantings estimates. The most attention on these releases is falling on potential US acres. In the February Outlook Forum the USDA projected plantings of 91 million corn acres, 87.5 million soybean acres, and 49.5 million wheat acres. Private analysts are pointing to acreage of 90.9 million on corn, 88.2 million on soybeans, and 49.24 million for wheat. In the 2022/23 crop year Us farmers planted 88.6 million corn, 87.5 million soybeans, and 45.7 million wheat acres. A lack of prevent plantings is expected to give the US its higher corn acres. Better returns on corn are also expected to elevate plantings, as well as a more favorable insurance level than for other crops. While these numbers will be closely monitored, we need to remember that several factors will impact the actual totals. A key one will be weather and the high possibility of spring flooding due to high snowpack. The quarterly stocks numbers will be more of a known factor and can have a greater impact on price discovery.  



* More opposition to Chinese land buying seen

* Congress pushed on all foreign US land ownership

* Russia now China’s leading crude supplier

* US rivers see flood conditions

* Black Sea weather near perfect

* Ethanol plants considering down-time

* Some forecasts for dry US summer

* Managed money traders remain quiet

* Farmer marketing mostly absent

* Stocks/Acreage reports on Friday 



* May futures +8 ¾ cents last week

* Domestic corn use overestimated

* Global corn values weaken

* Ukraine still has 2-3% to harvest

* Chinese buying from US half of initial estimates



* May futures -48 ¼ cents last week

* EU YTD imports -14.6%

* US crush margins lowest in 5 months

* US offers well above Brazil

* Chinese production +2% on the year 

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