Grain Comments: 03-28-2023

Good morning:

Soybean inspections to China were strong yesterday and a decent tail to sales and shipments into the spring has exports running ahead of USDA expectations—that’s ahead of a key USDA stocks figure on Friday (expected to come in well below a year ago) and an increasing need for 2023 U.S. soybean acreage to keep pace with corn and keep up supplies into ’23/24.

USDA ratings this week left Kansas wheat ratings steady at 19% good/ excellent, with Oklahoma up five points to 34% g/ex, and TX down five to 18% g/ex. MT ratings rose ten points on the month to 31% g/ex with NE up 3% to 22%, while SD fell a point his month to 22% g/ex. Arkansas SRWW ratings fell 9% this week to 60% g/ex, with IL down 24% to 58% this month

U.S. rains will increase into the end of the work week, missing the southern and northern Plains, with active forecasts remaining across the next two weeks, and below-normal temperatures holding up through April 11.

Average trade estimates for Friday’s USDA reports have been released with numbers showing some changes from what the USDA Ag Outlook Forum predicted on acres. Trade estimates on US corn acre this year are at 90.9 million, just under the Forum estimate of 91 million. Soybean acres are expected to total 88.3 million this year, just over the Forum estimate of 87.5 million. US wheat plantings this year are projected at 48.9 million by trade with the Forum estimate at 49.5 million acres. There are some outliers who are projecting much lower corn plantings though, with one coming in at 87.6 million acres. The same group has soybean plantings at 89.6 million acres, well above the average trade guess and Forum prediction. Last year US farmers seeded 88.6 million corn, 87.5 million soybeans, and 47.5 million wheat acres. The real interest may fall on the stocks data as these are firm numbers while the acreage data will still change. March 1st US corn stocks are predicted at 7.47 billion bu (bbu) compared to last year’s 7.76 bbu. Soybean inventory is estimated at 1.73 bbu, down from last year’s 1.93 bbu. March wheat stocks are estimated at 929 million bu by trade, down from last year’s 1.03 bbu.

Have a great day!