Good morning. Ag markets at the CBOT are generally higher to start the first full week of trading in 2026, with the soy complex leading what is expected to be a somewhat thin crowd still for the first few hours to the upside to get Monday morning started. Corn futures are 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are 6-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents higher.
Friday afternoon after the close, the USDA released monthly soybean crush and corn grind for ethanol data for the month of November. The figures showed US soybean crush in the month at 221 mil bu (down 6% from Oct, up 5% from Nov 2024), while corn grind for ethanol was seen at 472 mil bu (down 1% from Oct, up less than 1% from Nov 2024); the data also showed US soybean oil stocks as of October 31 at 2.164 bil lbs., which was up more than 20% the month prior and up more than 30% from the same month last year.
Weekly export sales data this morning for the week ending December 25th is expected to show corn sales in the week between 700k-1.5 mil MTs, soybean sales between 700k-1.8 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 100k-500k MTs. The report will be out at 7:30am central time and will be followed by weekly export inspections at their regular 10am central time.
In regard to the ongoing situation in Venezuela, acting President Delcy Rodriguez has invited the US to work with her country on what she described as a “cooperation agenda”, while President Trump has declared the US needs “total access” to whatever Venezuela looks like post-Maduro. Officials see the country’s oil exports now quickly being rerouted away from China and back to the US, which should help domestic refining in the short term.
Venezuela isn’t currently a major producer despite having some of the largest crude reserves in the world, mostly due to outdated and aging infrastructure that Trump has said US oil companies will be spending billions of dollars to rebuild. This likely accounts for why futures prices aren’t seeing any more of a reaction to the news than they are; spot WTI oil is up just 30-40 cents/bbl this morning and generally remains in the same downtrend that was started just before Christmas.
Other geopolitical happenings from over the weekend/the back half of last week included ongoing attacks from both Russia and Ukraine with little progress noted otherwise, while Trump threatened to stem the flow of drugs from other Latin American nations like Colombia and Mexico. Iran is back in the news due to protests over inflation and other economic hardships, while leaders from Denmark said “enough is enough” in regard to Trump’s repeated threats to take over Greenland.
US weather forecasts for the Midwest this week have ongoing light/scattered precipitation (rain and snow) for the northern part of the region across the Great Lakes and then into the northeast the first half of the week and then see a bit of a pattern shift at mid-week. The northwest flow that was in place most of December looks to give way at least temporarily to flow out of the southwest, which is going to provide the mid-section of the country with a pretty large storm system the back half of this week and into the weekend.
A warm-up in temperatures again this week for the central US will keep the bulk of the precipitation from this system as rainfall, but there will be a significant amount of snowfall on the back side according to the models, with a band stretching from western KS through central IA and into WI expected to see anywhere from 2-4″ with some heavier accumulations possible further to the north. South and east of this line, models see rainfall totaling anywhere from a half inch or so to 2-3″ in parts of the southeast by early Monday morning next week.
On the other side of the western hemisphere, models have put some light/scattered precipitation in the forecast for Argentina the middle of the week this week, but totals look to be mostly light/variable and generally less than an inch. Better rains look to then fall across the north and northwest later in the week, with this moisture then expected to expand into southern and southwest Brazil by the weekend and into the first part of next week. Northern and central Brazil look to continue seeing regular monsoonal rains through the week this week.
The other notable forecast development from South America over the weekend was a shift to much cooler temperatures through Argentina over the next 10 days, which come following a few days of extreme heat seen in places last week. Ten-day anomaly maps have almost all of the country’s growing regions seeing daytime highs that are well below average, which should help limit crop stress to an extent for areas that continue to be short-changed on rainfall.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-05-2026
Good morning. Ag markets at the CBOT are generally higher to start the first full week of trading in 2026, with the soy complex leading what is expected to be a somewhat thin crowd still for the first few hours to the upside to get Monday morning started. Corn futures are 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are 6-8 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 1-2 cents higher.
Friday afternoon after the close, the USDA released monthly soybean crush and corn grind for ethanol data for the month of November. The figures showed US soybean crush in the month at 221 mil bu (down 6% from Oct, up 5% from Nov 2024), while corn grind for ethanol was seen at 472 mil bu (down 1% from Oct, up less than 1% from Nov 2024); the data also showed US soybean oil stocks as of October 31 at 2.164 bil lbs., which was up more than 20% the month prior and up more than 30% from the same month last year.
Weekly export sales data this morning for the week ending December 25th is expected to show corn sales in the week between 700k-1.5 mil MTs, soybean sales between 700k-1.8 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 100k-500k MTs. The report will be out at 7:30am central time and will be followed by weekly export inspections at their regular 10am central time.
In regard to the ongoing situation in Venezuela, acting President Delcy Rodriguez has invited the US to work with her country on what she described as a “cooperation agenda”, while President Trump has declared the US needs “total access” to whatever Venezuela looks like post-Maduro. Officials see the country’s oil exports now quickly being rerouted away from China and back to the US, which should help domestic refining in the short term.
Venezuela isn’t currently a major producer despite having some of the largest crude reserves in the world, mostly due to outdated and aging infrastructure that Trump has said US oil companies will be spending billions of dollars to rebuild. This likely accounts for why futures prices aren’t seeing any more of a reaction to the news than they are; spot WTI oil is up just 30-40 cents/bbl this morning and generally remains in the same downtrend that was started just before Christmas.
Other geopolitical happenings from over the weekend/the back half of last week included ongoing attacks from both Russia and Ukraine with little progress noted otherwise, while Trump threatened to stem the flow of drugs from other Latin American nations like Colombia and Mexico. Iran is back in the news due to protests over inflation and other economic hardships, while leaders from Denmark said “enough is enough” in regard to Trump’s repeated threats to take over Greenland.
US weather forecasts for the Midwest this week have ongoing light/scattered precipitation (rain and snow) for the northern part of the region across the Great Lakes and then into the northeast the first half of the week and then see a bit of a pattern shift at mid-week. The northwest flow that was in place most of December looks to give way at least temporarily to flow out of the southwest, which is going to provide the mid-section of the country with a pretty large storm system the back half of this week and into the weekend.
A warm-up in temperatures again this week for the central US will keep the bulk of the precipitation from this system as rainfall, but there will be a significant amount of snowfall on the back side according to the models, with a band stretching from western KS through central IA and into WI expected to see anywhere from 2-4″ with some heavier accumulations possible further to the north. South and east of this line, models see rainfall totaling anywhere from a half inch or so to 2-3″ in parts of the southeast by early Monday morning next week.
On the other side of the western hemisphere, models have put some light/scattered precipitation in the forecast for Argentina the middle of the week this week, but totals look to be mostly light/variable and generally less than an inch. Better rains look to then fall across the north and northwest later in the week, with this moisture then expected to expand into southern and southwest Brazil by the weekend and into the first part of next week. Northern and central Brazil look to continue seeing regular monsoonal rains through the week this week.
The other notable forecast development from South America over the weekend was a shift to much cooler temperatures through Argentina over the next 10 days, which come following a few days of extreme heat seen in places last week. Ten-day anomaly maps have almost all of the country’s growing regions seeing daytime highs that are well below average, which should help limit crop stress to an extent for areas that continue to be short-changed on rainfall.
Have a great day.
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