Good morning.
Tuesday trade is quiet to start this morning across the ag space, with both corn and soybeans seeing small ranges so far on either side of unchanged after yesterday’s big up move to get the week started. To start the day, trader focus is likely to be almost entirely on the daily sales wire at 8am central time and seeing whether the rumored sales from Monday show up as advertised. Corn futures to start the morning are trading near unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also near unchanged.
CFTC data released yesterday afternoon for the week ending December 30th showed fund traders were sellers of 26,343 contracts of corn in the past week (-23,584), as well as sellers of 25,841 contracts of soybeans (+84,562) and sellers of 2,961 contracts of Chicago wheat (-94,626); in soy products, funds were sellers of 3,597 contracts of meal (-10,230) and were sellers of 197 contracts of oil (-67,314). Of note, this report is now back up to date following the government shutdown and will return to its regular Friday afternoon release schedule.
While StoneX bumped up their soybean production estimate for Brazil, they more or less left their corn production forecast near unchanged from the month prior at 134.3 MMTs. The bulk of Brazil’s corn, which is the safrinha – or second crop – gets planted after soybeans are harvested in another month or two, which means production updates aren’t likely to occur here for another several weeks.
Staying in Brazil, data from a private shipping company showed soybean exports out of the country in the 2025 calendar year at what would be a record 108.68 MMTs; if accurate, the figure would be up nearly 12% from 2024. The group showed soybean meal exports also hit a record in the year at 23.07 MMTs, while corn exports were pegged at 41.7 MMTs, up 4 MMTs on the year prior but not a record.
Lastly out of the most populated country in South America this morning, we talked about this some last week, but a group representing some of the world’s largest soybean traders in Brazil, Abiove, confirmed on Monday that it was withdrawing from the soy moratorium that has been in place since 2006 due to new state legislation that stripped tax incentives on January 1. The move was rumored but not confirmed last week and comes amid increased backlash from the country’s farmers.
A Ukrainian traders union reported on Monday that the country’s ag exports in the month of December were seen at just 3.28 MMTs, which was down from 3.58 MMTs in November. The group cited new export restrictions on oilseeds as the main reason for the decline and added that ongoing Russian attacks on port infrastructure were also impacting shipments. Total grain in exports in the marketing year starting July 1 are seen at 15.4 MMTs according to the ag ministry, which is down from 21.9 MMTs through the same period last year.
Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro pleaded not guilty on Monday to drug trafficking and narcotics charges in a US federal court, but there were little other new updates available on the situation the last 24 hours. After seeing decent gains throughout the day on Monday, crude oil futures are just marginally higher in overnight trade this morning, with traders understanding that the US capture of the Venezuelan leader likely has little impact on market fundamentals in the short term. Metals markets are also quietly higher this morning after seeing sharp gains on Monday.
US weather focus continues to be on a pair of storm systems that are expected to impact the central US later this week and then into the weekend, though the models this morning are still having a hard time determining the exact path of these systems and who will receive rain vs snow. Generally speaking, the first is expected to impact the Midwest through the day on Thursday and into the morning on Friday, with the second on the backside of this first one then seen moving through roughly the same area then Saturday into Sunday.
Models are slightly wetter tonight and into tomorrow again through Argentina but still show the better precipitation impacting areas further to the north and the west into the end of the week and weekend. Temperature anomaly maps are similar this morning to yesterday in continuing to advertise cool weather over the next 10 days for the region, while there is again little to nothing new for Brazil this morning.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-06-2026
Good morning.
Tuesday trade is quiet to start this morning across the ag space, with both corn and soybeans seeing small ranges so far on either side of unchanged after yesterday’s big up move to get the week started. To start the day, trader focus is likely to be almost entirely on the daily sales wire at 8am central time and seeing whether the rumored sales from Monday show up as advertised. Corn futures to start the morning are trading near unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also near unchanged.
CFTC data released yesterday afternoon for the week ending December 30th showed fund traders were sellers of 26,343 contracts of corn in the past week (-23,584), as well as sellers of 25,841 contracts of soybeans (+84,562) and sellers of 2,961 contracts of Chicago wheat (-94,626); in soy products, funds were sellers of 3,597 contracts of meal (-10,230) and were sellers of 197 contracts of oil (-67,314). Of note, this report is now back up to date following the government shutdown and will return to its regular Friday afternoon release schedule.
While StoneX bumped up their soybean production estimate for Brazil, they more or less left their corn production forecast near unchanged from the month prior at 134.3 MMTs. The bulk of Brazil’s corn, which is the safrinha – or second crop – gets planted after soybeans are harvested in another month or two, which means production updates aren’t likely to occur here for another several weeks.
Staying in Brazil, data from a private shipping company showed soybean exports out of the country in the 2025 calendar year at what would be a record 108.68 MMTs; if accurate, the figure would be up nearly 12% from 2024. The group showed soybean meal exports also hit a record in the year at 23.07 MMTs, while corn exports were pegged at 41.7 MMTs, up 4 MMTs on the year prior but not a record.
Lastly out of the most populated country in South America this morning, we talked about this some last week, but a group representing some of the world’s largest soybean traders in Brazil, Abiove, confirmed on Monday that it was withdrawing from the soy moratorium that has been in place since 2006 due to new state legislation that stripped tax incentives on January 1. The move was rumored but not confirmed last week and comes amid increased backlash from the country’s farmers.
A Ukrainian traders union reported on Monday that the country’s ag exports in the month of December were seen at just 3.28 MMTs, which was down from 3.58 MMTs in November. The group cited new export restrictions on oilseeds as the main reason for the decline and added that ongoing Russian attacks on port infrastructure were also impacting shipments. Total grain in exports in the marketing year starting July 1 are seen at 15.4 MMTs according to the ag ministry, which is down from 21.9 MMTs through the same period last year.
Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro pleaded not guilty on Monday to drug trafficking and narcotics charges in a US federal court, but there were little other new updates available on the situation the last 24 hours. After seeing decent gains throughout the day on Monday, crude oil futures are just marginally higher in overnight trade this morning, with traders understanding that the US capture of the Venezuelan leader likely has little impact on market fundamentals in the short term. Metals markets are also quietly higher this morning after seeing sharp gains on Monday.
US weather focus continues to be on a pair of storm systems that are expected to impact the central US later this week and then into the weekend, though the models this morning are still having a hard time determining the exact path of these systems and who will receive rain vs snow. Generally speaking, the first is expected to impact the Midwest through the day on Thursday and into the morning on Friday, with the second on the backside of this first one then seen moving through roughly the same area then Saturday into Sunday.
Models are slightly wetter tonight and into tomorrow again through Argentina but still show the better precipitation impacting areas further to the north and the west into the end of the week and weekend. Temperature anomaly maps are similar this morning to yesterday in continuing to advertise cool weather over the next 10 days for the region, while there is again little to nothing new for Brazil this morning.
Have a great day.
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