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Grain Comments: 01-10-2024

Good morning.

Markets remain choppy at the CBOT, as ag futures have traded lower so far in Wednesday’s overnight session. Volume has begun to rebound following the holidays, but most are still awaiting the release of the January WASDE numbers due out Friday morning. Corn futures are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 5-6 cents lower, and the Chi wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products lower, bean meal is down $1/ton and bean oil are trading roughly 10 points lower. Outside markets quiet, crude oil futures are 15-20 cents higher, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points.

CONAB numbers will be the talk of the day in ag markets. Brazil’s USDA equivalent pegged 23/24 soybean production this morning at 155.27 mmt’s. This vs 160.18 mmt’s last month. This would still be 0.4% higher than last year’s production.

The soybean planted area was seen at 45.26 mil hectares, slightly below last month’s forecast of 45.31 mil hectares.

CONAB pegged Brazil total corn crop at 117.6 mmt’s, down 0.93 mmt’s from the November estimate. This reduction was seen primarily from the summer corn crop, not the bigger safrinah crop.

Brazil cotton production for 2023/2024 is forecast at 3.36 mmt’s, which would be up 3% vs last season. Planted area in the country is seen being up 11% year over year. Weather stress has been cited as the reason for production not expanding further based on the acreage increase.

Generally speaking, relatively benign reports for the most part. Akin to a USDA punt in the July report. Will see what USDA has to say on Friday.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in West Bank today to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, as his Middle East tour continues. Otherwise, limited fresh news was again seen out of the region last night.

Today’s weekly ethanol report is expected to show production very close to last week at 1.048 mil bbls/day. This would be down 1,000 bbls/day. stocks are seen at 23.898 mil bbls, vs 23.579 last week.

Yesterday afternoon’s API energy report showed US crude stocks were down 5.2 mil bbls vs last week. 2024 US production is expected to reach a record high.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports for the month of December were seen at 1.33 mmt’s, down 5.1% from the November estimate. However, stocks in December were down also, coming in 4.6% lower than the November numbers.

The NASS statistical reshuffle that was to occur yesterday afternoon has come and gone with little fanfare. Newswires are not reporting any updates on the statistical house cleaning this morning, which was mostly expected.

Have a great day!

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