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Grain Comments: 01-11-2024

Good morning.

CBOT markets have traded mixed so far in the overnight session, with the soybean complex again unable to follow through in either direction. Corn futures are trading unchanged to up a half cent, soybean futures are up 6-7 cents, and the Chi wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. So far, Tuesday’s lows have been held in both corn and soybeans. Products are higher with soybeans, with meal up $3-6 and bean oil up around 20 points. Outside markets were mostly higher with crude oil futures up $1.30/bbl, the stock market mixed/unchanged, and the US$ index down 15 points. Markets today will likely see spill over input from a host of financial/economic reports set for release before this morning’s 8:30am central reopen.

This morning’s US weekly export sales report is looking for 400k to 1.2 mil mt’s of corn sales, 335k to 1.1 mil mt’s of soybean sales, and 200-475k mt’s of wheat sales.

The Rosario grains exchange updated its forecast for the 23/24 Argentina corn crop yesterday to 59 mmt’s in its monthly report, up 3 mmt’s from December. Would be a production record. USDA’s Ag attach√© in Argentina made similar adjustments, raising its soybean forecast to 50.5 mmt’s.

Exchange also raised its soybean forecast to 52 mmt’s, up from 50 mmt’s in December.

Core inflation this morning is expected to come in below 4% for the first time since 2021, with economists seeing last month’s reading at 3.8%. Headline inflation is seen at 3.2%.

Traders looked for jobless claims this morning to come in at 210,000, up 8,000 from the previous week.

An oil tanker that was in a dispute between the US and Iran last year was boarded off the coast of Oman and appeared to have changed course towards Iran early Thursday morning.

One final note on CONAB yesterday, corn exports for 23/24 were cut to 35 mmt’s vs 56 mmt’s the year prior. This some 36%, due to lower crop production and increased exports out of the US.

For tomorrow’s USDA report, traders are looking for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.105 bil bu’s, vs 2.131 last month. Trade could see an increase in ethanol use.

Corn production was seen at 15.226 bil bu’s, vs 15.234 last month. Minimal changes are expected on final 2023 production.

Soybean ending stocks in the US are forecast at 243 mil bu, vs 245 mil bu in December. Trade could see an increase in exports, and also increase in crush.

Soybean production is seen at 4.127 bil bu, vs 4.129 last month.

World ending stocks are forecast to be slightly lower for both corn and soybeans, compared to last month’s estimates.

Us quarterly grain stocks seen at 12.050 bil bu for corn, and 2.975 bil bu of soybeans. Corn numbers would be larger than last year, soybeans would be fractionally smaller.

In the crypto world, the US SEC on Wednesday approved exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the price of bitcoin. Industry members have been pushing for such a product for 10+ years.

Have a great day!


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