Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing a quiet start to the new week this morning at the CBOT, with values across the space mostly just mixed to marginally lower despite the outside markets seeing sharp selling starting Monday morning on weekend trade headlines. Corn futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower.
The new trade headlines over the weekend, mixed with an already ripe-for-risk geopolitical environment, have led to a sell-off in the equity markets this morning, with all three of the major stock index futures trading some 1.5% lower this morning and the $ index also trading around a percent lower. Bond futures are sharply lower also, while the metals markets accordingly are seeing another round of ‘safe haven’ buying; both gold and silver have scored new all-time highs again overnight.
President Trump is expected to meet global business leaders in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday on the sidelines of the annual World Economic Forum, where the ongoing topic of Greenland and subsequent spat with the EU over the matter are expected to be one of the main topics of discussion. WEF organizers have said they expect over 3,000 delegates from more than 130 countries to be in attendance at this year’s meetings.
Private groups in Brazil see the country’s soybean harvest at around 1-2% complete as of the end of last week, with multiple groups showing figures that were ahead of the same date last year, but still roughly in-line with historical norms. CONAB will be out later this evening with their weekly crop progress update, which is expected to show similar figures.
Staying on the same page, Brazilian consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Monday, following production updates late last week, that the country’s soybean exports in the 2025/26 season were expected to reach just 105 MMTs, which would be down some 3% from the previous season. Despite projected higher production figures, the group cited increased crush and a trimming of imports as reason for the lower estimates. The group said they see total supply at 183.79 MMTs, up around 5% from last year.
Additional Chinese customs data, released after preliminary figures, showed the country’s December corn imports at 800,000 MTs, which is up more than 130% from the same month last year; wheat imports were down 64% from the same month last year at 580,000 Mts, while sorghum imports were down nearly 50% at just 50,000 MTs.
Other China news to start the week includes reports that a Chinese importer has booked around 60,000 MTs of Canadian canola following trade talks in Beijing last week, which would be the first such shipment since October. There are also headlines from Reuters this morning that China has likely reached its 12 MMT purchase pledge of US beans, signaling that business could slow in the weeks ahead as South American offers remain well below those out of either the US Gulf or the PNW.
Lastly out of the Asian nation to start the week, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that final 2025 grain output reached 714.88 MMTs, which was up a little more than 1% from the year prior. Wheat production is seen at 140.07 MMTs, near unchanged on the year, and corn production is seen at 301.24 MMTs, which would be up a little over 2%; similarly, rice production is seen almost a percent higher than 2024, and soybean production is seen up 1.3% to 20.91 MMTs.
Forecasters see wet weather remaining common across the bulk of central Brazil, warning that it may lead to slight harvest delays. The MJO is expected to move into phases 6/7 over the next couple weeks, which would encourage ongoing wet weather. The south, meanwhile, likely stays drier into the end of the month, while this MJO move also means the southern part of Argentina should see improved rainfall into the end of the month, which is corroborated in this morning’s model runs.
US weather forecasts for the week are calling for continued northwest flow to allow additional snow showers to impact the northern part of the region in/around the Great Lakes states early, before a shift to more southwest flow later in the week brings in several days of potentially nasty weather across the southern US and southeast. The models aren’t in great agreement on timing, but both see a rather large system of rain/snow/ice impacting areas from NM to the Carolinas the end of the week this week and into the first part of next week, as a big low-pressure system works across the country.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-20-2026
Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing a quiet start to the new week this morning at the CBOT, with values across the space mostly just mixed to marginally lower despite the outside markets seeing sharp selling starting Monday morning on weekend trade headlines. Corn futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents lower.
The new trade headlines over the weekend, mixed with an already ripe-for-risk geopolitical environment, have led to a sell-off in the equity markets this morning, with all three of the major stock index futures trading some 1.5% lower this morning and the $ index also trading around a percent lower. Bond futures are sharply lower also, while the metals markets accordingly are seeing another round of ‘safe haven’ buying; both gold and silver have scored new all-time highs again overnight.
President Trump is expected to meet global business leaders in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday on the sidelines of the annual World Economic Forum, where the ongoing topic of Greenland and subsequent spat with the EU over the matter are expected to be one of the main topics of discussion. WEF organizers have said they expect over 3,000 delegates from more than 130 countries to be in attendance at this year’s meetings.
Private groups in Brazil see the country’s soybean harvest at around 1-2% complete as of the end of last week, with multiple groups showing figures that were ahead of the same date last year, but still roughly in-line with historical norms. CONAB will be out later this evening with their weekly crop progress update, which is expected to show similar figures.
Staying on the same page, Brazilian consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Monday, following production updates late last week, that the country’s soybean exports in the 2025/26 season were expected to reach just 105 MMTs, which would be down some 3% from the previous season. Despite projected higher production figures, the group cited increased crush and a trimming of imports as reason for the lower estimates. The group said they see total supply at 183.79 MMTs, up around 5% from last year.
Additional Chinese customs data, released after preliminary figures, showed the country’s December corn imports at 800,000 MTs, which is up more than 130% from the same month last year; wheat imports were down 64% from the same month last year at 580,000 Mts, while sorghum imports were down nearly 50% at just 50,000 MTs.
Other China news to start the week includes reports that a Chinese importer has booked around 60,000 MTs of Canadian canola following trade talks in Beijing last week, which would be the first such shipment since October. There are also headlines from Reuters this morning that China has likely reached its 12 MMT purchase pledge of US beans, signaling that business could slow in the weeks ahead as South American offers remain well below those out of either the US Gulf or the PNW.
Lastly out of the Asian nation to start the week, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that final 2025 grain output reached 714.88 MMTs, which was up a little more than 1% from the year prior. Wheat production is seen at 140.07 MMTs, near unchanged on the year, and corn production is seen at 301.24 MMTs, which would be up a little over 2%; similarly, rice production is seen almost a percent higher than 2024, and soybean production is seen up 1.3% to 20.91 MMTs.
Forecasters see wet weather remaining common across the bulk of central Brazil, warning that it may lead to slight harvest delays. The MJO is expected to move into phases 6/7 over the next couple weeks, which would encourage ongoing wet weather. The south, meanwhile, likely stays drier into the end of the month, while this MJO move also means the southern part of Argentina should see improved rainfall into the end of the month, which is corroborated in this morning’s model runs.
US weather forecasts for the week are calling for continued northwest flow to allow additional snow showers to impact the northern part of the region in/around the Great Lakes states early, before a shift to more southwest flow later in the week brings in several days of potentially nasty weather across the southern US and southeast. The models aren’t in great agreement on timing, but both see a rather large system of rain/snow/ice impacting areas from NM to the Carolinas the end of the week this week and into the first part of next week, as a big low-pressure system works across the country.
Have a great day.
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