Good morning.
Corn, soybean and wheat futures are seeing higher trade this morning to start Wednesday, with ranges in all three almost entirely to the upside. We’re having a hard time pinpointing an exact reason for the overnight strength but would assume that it’s the result of some sort of combination of a dead-cat-bounce following yesterday’s selling, ongoing weather concern for too much rain in northern Brazil, and short covering in the case of the grains. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher.
Along with trade focus and developments with the EU, market participants have also continued to keep an eye on macro markets this week, with the $ index ripping lower on Tuesday and the metals markets continuing to see extremely volatile trade; gold futures are up another $100/oz this morning and have again scored new contract highs, but it’s been a lower start to the day for the silver market, which is seeing an inside trading session so far early this morning.
Natural gas futures are also soaring higher this morning, with spot futures prices up some 18% in overnight trade after also closing sharply higher on Tuesday, putting the market on track to possibly see its best weekly gain in some 35+ years. The coming cold snap for a lot of the US and also parts of Europe has been the main reason for the buying, but snow chances across TX and other parts of the south have also contributed to the buying.
Staying on the macro theme, investors and traders are preparing for another round of comments out of President Trump on Wednesday, as the US leader is scheduled to give a special address at the WEF in Davos today and then is also expected to do an interview with CNBC after this. Most expect there to be significant headline risk and market reaction but are unsure as to the exact timing of when these events may occur due to scheduling and logistics.
A farmer’s union in Ukraine said on Wednesday that ice crust and extremely cold weather over the past two weeks could potentially have caused damaged to winter wheat and rapeseed crops but added that more would likely be known over the next two weeks. Temperatures fell to around -20 degrees C after a period of freezing rain, which formed a layer of ice over most fields.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but USTR Jameson Greer, also in Davos this week, told reporters that another round of trade negotiations was possible with China ahead of a planned visit by Trump later this spring. “There’s a chance that we might meet before then and try to have some kind of further agreement on things we can trade between us that are non-sensitive,” said Greer. He added that China policy was not on hold, and that export controls would continue as they are.
Noticeable model differences remain in place this morning regarding the coming storm system for the southern and south-central US that is expected the end of this week/weekend; the GFS Saturday into Sunday has most of the precipitation staying south of central MO/IL while the EU model has this line more across IA and WI. There also timing disagreements, as the EU model seems to have the system turning north up the East Coast a little earlier than the GFS does.
For temperatures, the Midwest will be a little mixed today in terms of slightly warmer south and slightly cooler north, but then frigid arctic air begins to punch south tomorrow and then last into the end of the week for almost all of the eastern 2/3’s of the country. Highs Saturday across TX and OK will be in the teens/20’s, while the northern part of the Midwest looks to see highs that don’t touch 0. This cold moderates some by the middle of next week, but further models don’t see a pattern shift away from the current setup for at least the next ten days.
Not a lot new to discuss for weather in South America this morning, as model runs are like they were yesterday in showing a dry pocket through the northeastern half of Argentina and through southern Brazil over the next week, while rains both to the south and the north of this area look to continue throughout the week this week and into the weekend. Its harvest delays across Mato Grosso that represent the most concerning part of today’s forecast for either Brazil or Argentina, but ahead of safrinha planting in another few weeks, it’s hard to be too negative still about additional moisture.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-21-2026
Good morning.
Corn, soybean and wheat futures are seeing higher trade this morning to start Wednesday, with ranges in all three almost entirely to the upside. We’re having a hard time pinpointing an exact reason for the overnight strength but would assume that it’s the result of some sort of combination of a dead-cat-bounce following yesterday’s selling, ongoing weather concern for too much rain in northern Brazil, and short covering in the case of the grains. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 8-10 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher.
Along with trade focus and developments with the EU, market participants have also continued to keep an eye on macro markets this week, with the $ index ripping lower on Tuesday and the metals markets continuing to see extremely volatile trade; gold futures are up another $100/oz this morning and have again scored new contract highs, but it’s been a lower start to the day for the silver market, which is seeing an inside trading session so far early this morning.
Natural gas futures are also soaring higher this morning, with spot futures prices up some 18% in overnight trade after also closing sharply higher on Tuesday, putting the market on track to possibly see its best weekly gain in some 35+ years. The coming cold snap for a lot of the US and also parts of Europe has been the main reason for the buying, but snow chances across TX and other parts of the south have also contributed to the buying.
Staying on the macro theme, investors and traders are preparing for another round of comments out of President Trump on Wednesday, as the US leader is scheduled to give a special address at the WEF in Davos today and then is also expected to do an interview with CNBC after this. Most expect there to be significant headline risk and market reaction but are unsure as to the exact timing of when these events may occur due to scheduling and logistics.
A farmer’s union in Ukraine said on Wednesday that ice crust and extremely cold weather over the past two weeks could potentially have caused damaged to winter wheat and rapeseed crops but added that more would likely be known over the next two weeks. Temperatures fell to around -20 degrees C after a period of freezing rain, which formed a layer of ice over most fields.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but USTR Jameson Greer, also in Davos this week, told reporters that another round of trade negotiations was possible with China ahead of a planned visit by Trump later this spring. “There’s a chance that we might meet before then and try to have some kind of further agreement on things we can trade between us that are non-sensitive,” said Greer. He added that China policy was not on hold, and that export controls would continue as they are.
Noticeable model differences remain in place this morning regarding the coming storm system for the southern and south-central US that is expected the end of this week/weekend; the GFS Saturday into Sunday has most of the precipitation staying south of central MO/IL while the EU model has this line more across IA and WI. There also timing disagreements, as the EU model seems to have the system turning north up the East Coast a little earlier than the GFS does.
For temperatures, the Midwest will be a little mixed today in terms of slightly warmer south and slightly cooler north, but then frigid arctic air begins to punch south tomorrow and then last into the end of the week for almost all of the eastern 2/3’s of the country. Highs Saturday across TX and OK will be in the teens/20’s, while the northern part of the Midwest looks to see highs that don’t touch 0. This cold moderates some by the middle of next week, but further models don’t see a pattern shift away from the current setup for at least the next ten days.
Not a lot new to discuss for weather in South America this morning, as model runs are like they were yesterday in showing a dry pocket through the northeastern half of Argentina and through southern Brazil over the next week, while rains both to the south and the north of this area look to continue throughout the week this week and into the weekend. Its harvest delays across Mato Grosso that represent the most concerning part of today’s forecast for either Brazil or Argentina, but ahead of safrinha planting in another few weeks, it’s hard to be too negative still about additional moisture.
Have a great day.
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