Good morning.
Traders are seeing mixed markets this morning to get Monday started, with corn futures trading moderately lower while the wheat market and soy complex are slightly higher. With there again not being a lot of groundbreaking news over the weekend, we would assume this week’s trading themes to be similar to last week’s and would think the macro environment will continue to have a somewhat outsized impact on price direction. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher also.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of traders update showed managed money traders in the week ending January 20th were buyers of just 450 contracts of corn (-81,324), sellers of 2,900 contracts of soybeans (+10,060) and sellers of 4,471 contracts of Chicago wheat (-110,700). In the soy products, funds sold 21,058 contracts of meal (-38,198) and bought 27,750 contracts of oil (-25,269). Of note, this was the largest week of fund buying in the oil since last April.
Also, out Friday afternoon was the USDA’s monthly cattle on feed update, which showed the US feedlot herd as of Jan 1 at 11.5 million head, which was down 3% from last year. Placements in December totaled 1.55 mil head, down 5% from Dec 2024, while marketings in the month totaled 1.77 mil head, up 2% from the same month in 2024. The numbers were close to trade expectations in all three categories.
Lastly from Friday, the USDA’s monthly cold storage update showed total red meat supplies in the US as of the end of December at 845.343 mil lbs., which was up 4% from November but down 3% from the same month last year. Supplies of frozen beef were down 4% on the year, while supplies of frozen pork were down 2% on the year.
Outside markets are seeing similar price action to what was seen last week early on this morning, with natural gas again ripping higher and seeing a fairly sizeable gap-open start to the session last night, and gold and silver both jumping out to new all-time highs again. Geopolitical happenings will likely continue to drive prices in the metals space, but the question for natural gas is how long specs continue to push this market amid what has been a mostly unwavering forecast on cold weather lingering both in the US and across parts of Europe.
US meteorologists this morning are reporting that the weekend cold snap could’ve possibly caused crop damage due to a lack of snow cover from MT to NE and then across the lower Midwest, but that damage assessments would not be possible until spring amid the potential for some crops to have the ability to recover. Plains weather is expected to moderate this week, but ongoing cold temps will continue to lead to risk where snow cover remains minimal.
Traders familiar with the situation are reporting this morning that EU wheat exports are likely to struggle through the back half of the current season, as a record Argentine crop has led to increased competition. The sources say the 30 MMT export target that has been widely forecast in recent months is likely too high, adding that the main market, Morocco, has switched business to Argentina in recent weeks and is also set to start its own harvest in just another couple months in May.
With market focus already seeing a macro lean in recent days, it will potentially lean more so this week with the Federal Reserve’s January FOMC meeting which is set tomorrow and wrap up on Wednesday. The CME’s FedWatch tool this morning has a better than 97% chance that rates will remain unchanged, and though subject to change, also sees a better than 80% chance that rates remain unchanged again at the March meeting as well.
This weekend’s Midwest winter storm worked through the area largely as expected, with a swath of the region from KS/OK to the northeast seeing snowfall accumulations ranging anywhere from 1-3″ to a heavier 8-12″ through the central Midwest and up into PA/NY and the broader northeast. Ongoing cold air will limit the amount of melting that goes on in the short term, but the models don’t see a lot of additional precipitation this week once this system exits into the Atlantic later today.
Elsewhere, models have added better rains for the central and northeastern parts of Argentina over the last couple days towards the end of the week this week, though the totals look to be on the lighter side and rather scattered. There’s also better moisture being forecast for the southern part of Brazil, which too was drier going into the weekend last week. Temperature-wise, heat lingers through far southern Argentina for another couple days early this week but then moderates again by the weekend and is seen near normal throughout both here and Brazil over the next ten days.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 01-26-2026
Good morning.
Traders are seeing mixed markets this morning to get Monday started, with corn futures trading moderately lower while the wheat market and soy complex are slightly higher. With there again not being a lot of groundbreaking news over the weekend, we would assume this week’s trading themes to be similar to last week’s and would think the macro environment will continue to have a somewhat outsized impact on price direction. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents higher also.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitment of traders update showed managed money traders in the week ending January 20th were buyers of just 450 contracts of corn (-81,324), sellers of 2,900 contracts of soybeans (+10,060) and sellers of 4,471 contracts of Chicago wheat (-110,700). In the soy products, funds sold 21,058 contracts of meal (-38,198) and bought 27,750 contracts of oil (-25,269). Of note, this was the largest week of fund buying in the oil since last April.
Also, out Friday afternoon was the USDA’s monthly cattle on feed update, which showed the US feedlot herd as of Jan 1 at 11.5 million head, which was down 3% from last year. Placements in December totaled 1.55 mil head, down 5% from Dec 2024, while marketings in the month totaled 1.77 mil head, up 2% from the same month in 2024. The numbers were close to trade expectations in all three categories.
Lastly from Friday, the USDA’s monthly cold storage update showed total red meat supplies in the US as of the end of December at 845.343 mil lbs., which was up 4% from November but down 3% from the same month last year. Supplies of frozen beef were down 4% on the year, while supplies of frozen pork were down 2% on the year.
Outside markets are seeing similar price action to what was seen last week early on this morning, with natural gas again ripping higher and seeing a fairly sizeable gap-open start to the session last night, and gold and silver both jumping out to new all-time highs again. Geopolitical happenings will likely continue to drive prices in the metals space, but the question for natural gas is how long specs continue to push this market amid what has been a mostly unwavering forecast on cold weather lingering both in the US and across parts of Europe.
US meteorologists this morning are reporting that the weekend cold snap could’ve possibly caused crop damage due to a lack of snow cover from MT to NE and then across the lower Midwest, but that damage assessments would not be possible until spring amid the potential for some crops to have the ability to recover. Plains weather is expected to moderate this week, but ongoing cold temps will continue to lead to risk where snow cover remains minimal.
Traders familiar with the situation are reporting this morning that EU wheat exports are likely to struggle through the back half of the current season, as a record Argentine crop has led to increased competition. The sources say the 30 MMT export target that has been widely forecast in recent months is likely too high, adding that the main market, Morocco, has switched business to Argentina in recent weeks and is also set to start its own harvest in just another couple months in May.
With market focus already seeing a macro lean in recent days, it will potentially lean more so this week with the Federal Reserve’s January FOMC meeting which is set tomorrow and wrap up on Wednesday. The CME’s FedWatch tool this morning has a better than 97% chance that rates will remain unchanged, and though subject to change, also sees a better than 80% chance that rates remain unchanged again at the March meeting as well.
This weekend’s Midwest winter storm worked through the area largely as expected, with a swath of the region from KS/OK to the northeast seeing snowfall accumulations ranging anywhere from 1-3″ to a heavier 8-12″ through the central Midwest and up into PA/NY and the broader northeast. Ongoing cold air will limit the amount of melting that goes on in the short term, but the models don’t see a lot of additional precipitation this week once this system exits into the Atlantic later today.
Elsewhere, models have added better rains for the central and northeastern parts of Argentina over the last couple days towards the end of the week this week, though the totals look to be on the lighter side and rather scattered. There’s also better moisture being forecast for the southern part of Brazil, which too was drier going into the weekend last week. Temperature-wise, heat lingers through far southern Argentina for another couple days early this week but then moderates again by the weekend and is seen near normal throughout both here and Brazil over the next ten days.
Have a great day.
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